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WTI remains protective over $75.00 due to conflicting OPEC oil demand predictions and an increase in API inventories

Alina Haynes

Dec 14, 2022 11:28

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During Wednesday's Asian session, WTI crude oil traders struggle to find a clear direction around $75.30. The market is cautious ahead of today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and as a result, the black gold deviates from a three-day rally from the yearly low (FOMC).

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) ambiguous oil demand projections and news about China may be supporting the WTI's passivity.

 

The OPEC stated in a monthly report that after increasing by 2.55 million bpd in 2022, oil consumption will increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd), or approximately 2.3%, in 2023. Both projections remained the same as the previous month, according to Reuters. The news also stated that "OPEC reduced the absolute demand projections in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 while maintaining the yearly demand growth forecasts at the same level. Chinese consumption has decreased in 2022 due to COVID containment measures, according to OPEC, as reported by Reuters.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva was seen predicting weaker economic growth for China as a result of the most recent increase in the daily Covid cases on a different page. Additionally, Bloomberg reported that the COVID-19 issues may have caused the Chinese leaders to postpone their meeting to discuss economic policy.

 

The disappointing US inflation figures could have encouraged oil bulls, but a surprising increase in the American Petroleum Institute's (API) weekly inventory for the week ended December 9—to 7.819M from -6.289M the week before—challenges the buyers of black gold.

 

The main difficulty for WTI traders is uncertainty surrounding market fears of fewer rate hikes and a cautious attitude prior to the Fed's decision.

 

Moving on, the risk associated with China and pre-Fed actions may limit WTI movements. Weekly official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), before -5.187M, may also be a factor in limiting oil swings.

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