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The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.The UKs core retail price index was 4.4% year-on-year in August, compared with 4.70% in the previous month.The UKs retail price index rose by 0.4% in August, in line with expectations of 0.5% and the previous reading of 0.40%.The UKs CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.10%.

WTI Price Analysis: Rebounds from 50% Fibo./100-period SMA support confluence

Alina Haynes

Oct 17, 2022 14:46

截屏2022-10-17 下午2.39.40.png 

 

The price of WTI crude oil regains some positive momentum on the opening day of a new week and maintains its position above the $85.00 threshold heading into the European session.

 

From a technical standpoint, the commodity defends the $84.50-$84.25 confluence combining the 4-hour 100-period SMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the $76.08-$92.63 advance. The aforementioned region should now serve as a crucial turning point, which, if decisively broken, will pave the way for a continuation of the recent rapid drop from the highest level since August reached last week.

 

In the interim, any future advance is likely to encounter resistance between $85.70-$85.75. This is closely followed by the $86.00 mark and the 38.2% Fibonacci level in the $86.30 region, over which current prices might reach $87.00. The momentum may extend into the $87.45 barrier en route to the $88.00 mark and the 23.6% Fibonacci level, in the $88.55-$88.60 supply zone.

 

In contrast, weakening below the $85.00 round number may continue to find support near the intersection of $84.50 and $84.25. A convincing break below will serve as a new catalyst for pessimistic traders and pave the way for further declines. The price of WTI crude oil might possibly decline below $84,00 and test the next key support between $83.40-$83.35 before falling to the $83.00 level.


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