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Dubai Airport handled 2.5 million passengers in March, a 65.7% decrease year-on-year.On May 4th, local time, on May 2nd, Ali Nikozadeh, Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, emphasized in an interview along the Strait of Hormuz that "the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, and Iran will absolutely not back down a single step from the Strait of Hormuz." Nikozadeh stated that Parliament will approve a "Strait of Hormuz Management Law," which includes: a permanent ban on Israeli ships passing through this crucial waterway; ships from "hostile states" must pay "war reparations" to obtain passage permits; and other ships will only need Iranian authorization to pass.Sources indicate that Qatar Energys official selling price for May marine crude oil is set at a premium of $17.05 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai price; and an official selling price for onshore crude oil is set at a premium of $18 per barrel.Asian stocks surged on Monday, boosted by strong earnings reports from major U.S. tech companies and comments from President Trump that the U.S. would begin guiding some neutral ships stranded in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, excluding Japan, rose as much as 2.7%, a record high. Benchmark indices in South Korea and Taiwan, both dominated by tech stocks, soared by more than 3.5%. SK Hynix shares jumped nearly 10%, and TSMC shares jumped over 6%. Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone Group, said the current strength in markets like South Korea is due to AI-driven trading or speculation. She said she is “cautiously optimistic about Asian markets overall” because geopolitical uncertainty and high oil prices could constrain stock markets.On May 4th, Ryoo Sangdai, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Korea, stated that its time to consider raising interest rates, as economic growth seems unlikely to fall significantly short of the central banks earlier forecasts, while inflation may exceed previous expectations. Ryoo, who is also a member of the Bank of Koreas Monetary Policy Committee, cited the stronger-than-expected economic resilience following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and the rising inflationary pressures. The Bank of Korea has kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged since July of last year. In February, the Bank of Korea projected 2% economic growth and 2.2% inflation for the year. While policymakers initially expected the unrest in Iran to drag down economic growth and push up prices, recent data shows that the growth outlook has not deteriorated as feared due to strong semiconductor shipments, while inflation risks have increased. Regarding the won exchange rate, Ryoo stated that from an economic fundamentals perspective, the won remains weaker than in the past, although the market does not seem to see the current level as a major problem. The won recently hit its lowest level against the US dollar since the global financial crisis. Speaking about concerns about the economys reliance on semiconductors, Ryoo stated that the key risk lies in whether the cycle shifts or whether the spillover effects are lower than expected, rather than the industrys increasing share itself.

USD/TRY Price Analysis: Weekly support breach points to additional drop towards 16.00

Jun 01, 2022 14:48

USD/TRY stays pushed at 16.40, following many days of silence, until early Wednesday morning in Europe.

 

In doing so, the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair justifies the recent negative breach of a one-week-old ascending trend line with lower RSI, not oversold.

 

Given the USD/TRY pair’s frequent failures to renew the yearly high, as well as the current trend line break and stable RSI, the quotation is likely dropping towards the 200-HMA level near 16.20.

 

Around the pair’s decline past 16.20, repeated peaks set during May 25-26 can test the USD/TRY bears around 16.15, a breach of which might drive them to the 16.00 level.

 

Meanwhile, a confluence of the prior support line and recent high at $16.47 shields the short-term USD/TRY upward. Ahead of that, a one-week-old horizontal line at 16.43 may test pair buyers.

 

It’s worth noting that the USD/TRY run-up beyond 16.47 won’t hesitate to reach the 17.00 round figure while seeking the late 2021 high of 18.35.

USD/TRY

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