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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

USD/TRY Price Analysis: Weekly support breach points to additional drop towards 16.00

Jun 01, 2022 14:48

USD/TRY stays pushed at 16.40, following many days of silence, until early Wednesday morning in Europe.

 

In doing so, the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair justifies the recent negative breach of a one-week-old ascending trend line with lower RSI, not oversold.

 

Given the USD/TRY pair’s frequent failures to renew the yearly high, as well as the current trend line break and stable RSI, the quotation is likely dropping towards the 200-HMA level near 16.20.

 

Around the pair’s decline past 16.20, repeated peaks set during May 25-26 can test the USD/TRY bears around 16.15, a breach of which might drive them to the 16.00 level.

 

Meanwhile, a confluence of the prior support line and recent high at $16.47 shields the short-term USD/TRY upward. Ahead of that, a one-week-old horizontal line at 16.43 may test pair buyers.

 

It’s worth noting that the USD/TRY run-up beyond 16.47 won’t hesitate to reach the 17.00 round figure while seeking the late 2021 high of 18.35.

USD/TRY

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