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On April 27th, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made it clear that they value maintaining flexibility in policy options ahead of this weeks policy decision. The market has reacted accordingly, lowering its rate hike expectations to approximately 20%. However, this probability is expected to rise to around 63% by the June meeting. Looking at the full year, traders are currently pricing in a rate hike of approximately 58 basis points, roughly equivalent to two subsequent 25 basis point hikes, which is Goldman Sachs current baseline scenario. Goldman Sachs believes that given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, the ECB is unlikely to take action this week, as policymakers want to preserve policy space while assessing the second-round effects of inflation. The press conference is expected to maintain the tone of recent communications, with ECB President Lagarde potentially stating that the Governing Council will monitor the second-round effects and is prepared to act to ensure inflation returns to 2% in the medium term. Regarding the future policy path, Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to implement two 25 basis point rate hikes in the coming months, the first in June, followed by a move to raise the deposit rate to 2.50% in September.On April 27th, at the 2026 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, Unisoc and ADAYO jointly released a new generation AI cockpit platform equipped with the A8880 chip, which achieves a significant leap in CPU, GPU computing power and graphics rendering capabilities.On April 27th, Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen stated in a report that market expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank appear excessive ahead of meetings later this week, thus putting the pound and euro at risk. LSEG data shows that money market pricing indicates the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday but will raise them twice before the end of the year. "We are particularly skeptical of market expectations regarding the ECB and the Bank of England," Nguyen said. She stated that there is considerable room for these expectations to be reassessed, and therefore, exchange rates could experience significant volatility.On April 27th, a Counterpoint Research report showed that global smartphone SoC shipments declined by 8% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. The ongoing memory shortage is not only impacting new product development for smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and SoC suppliers, but also prompting them to optimize their product portfolios. The high-end smartphone market performed relatively steadily, with most of the cost increases already passed on to end consumers. Meanwhile, the entry-level market is gradually adopting lower-cost, older chipsets to maintain price competitiveness. Qualcomm and MediaTek both experienced double-digit declines in shipments. In contrast, Apple, Samsung, Google, and Unisoc achieved positive growth. Apple, Samsung, and Google benefited from their supply chain integration capabilities, mitigating the impact of the current memory shortage to some extent.On April 27, the draft revision of the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises was submitted to the 22nd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress for its first review. The revision adheres to the leadership of the Party, a problem-oriented approach, the principle of balancing development and security, and the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The draft revises 71 articles and adds 32 new articles, comprising nine chapters and 109 articles, comprehensively revising the existing law. Major revisions include improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics, improving the management and supervision system for state-owned assets of enterprises, clarifying the principle of classified management, and improving the management system for state-owned capital gains. The Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises stipulates the basic system for the management and supervision of state-owned assets of enterprises in my country. Since its implementation on May 1, 2009, it has provided strong legal protection for the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, my countrys development environment faces profound and complex changes. Revising and improving the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises, using legislation to guide and guarantee the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises, and strengthening the rule of law in the management and supervision of state-owned assets, is of great significance for ensuring the sustained and healthy development of the state-owned economy.

US Dollar Index Struggles to Surpass 104.00 as US Inflation Rate Rises

Daniel Rogers

May 11, 2022 10:06

The US dollar index (DXY) is equilibrating below the round level mark of 104.00 as market players lose interest in the release of US inflation data. The asset has been fluctuating between 102.35 and 104.20 since April 28 amid a flurry of key economic events, ranging from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and the announcement of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) last week to the impending Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics.

US CPI Figures

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is anticipated to report an annual inflation rate of 8.1 percent, a decrease from the previous rate of 8.5 percent, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to reach 6 percent. Although inflation is anticipated to be lower, this does not guarantee that the Fed will not raise rates in June. If the annual inflation rate rises over the multidecade high of 8.5%, investors should anticipate greater volatility. 

Fed's Mester's address

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed will not ease its stance on interest rates until it observes a significant decline in inflation levels. Inflation rates are skyrocketing, and the current scenario necessitates tougher measures to curb the rate of inflation's ascent.

 

Important events this week include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Initial Jobless Claims, and the Producers Price Index (PPI), as well as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI).

 

On the back burner are the Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks, China's CPI, and Christine Lagarde's address as President of the European Central Bank (ECB).


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