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U.S. stock index futures opened lower on Monday, with S&P 500 futures down 0.7% and Nasdaq futures down 0.8%.UK Government: The UK discussed with other leaders the situation in Ukraine and the catastrophic toll the war is taking on both sides; the potential sanctions if Russia fails to seriously engage in ceasefire and peace talks; and the need for an unconditional ceasefire and for Russian President Vladimir Putin to take peace talks seriously.British Prime Minister Starmer spoke to the leaders of the United States, Italy, France and Germany.1. Ukraine said that Russia launched the largest drone airstrike since 2022. 2. US Secretary of State: Russia and Ukraine may hold talks in the Vatican. Russia is preparing a list of "ceasefire requirements" in Ukraine. 3. Financial Times: Russian President Putin refused to discuss the peace plan proposed by the United States, Ukraine and Europe. 4. Putin: Russia respects the interests of the United States and expects to be treated the same. 5. Medvedev: The "ultimatum" of Western countries will not help end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. 6. What kind of special military action results does Russia need to achieve? Putin responded: 1. Eliminate the root causes of this crisis; 2. Create conditions for lasting and stable peace; 3. Ensure the security of the Russian nation; 4. Safeguard the rights and interests of those who regard Russian as their mother tongue and Russia as their motherland.FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech in ten minutes.

US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH

Alice Wang

Jul 18, 2022 15:20

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After a US inflation data boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate rise this week, the US dollar increased and reached levels not seen since September 2002. In June, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 9.1% as compared to the same month a year before, above the consensus estimate of 8.8%. Core inflation, which excludes the cost of gasoline and food, increased more than was predicted.


According to Fed Funds futures, this raised the likelihood of a 100 basis-point rate rise at the July 27 FOMC meeting to above 50%. These wagers decreased over the weekend but were still larger than they were before to the CPI report. Before the FOMC blackout period started on July 16, representatives from the Federal Reserve assisted in lowering such expectations.


According to the CFTC's most recent Commitments of Traders report, traders reduced their long bets on the US dollar for a second consecutive week. Despite the two-week fall, traders' net long positions in the USD have mainly not changed. The reference period for the data concluded on July 12, leaving markets in the dark about post-CPI positioning.