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July 29th - Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by September, making this weeks meeting crucial. With the market already pricing in a rate hike this year, Kalish asks rhetorically, "Why wait?" He believes a rate hike would solidify the Feds independence and enhance its credibility. However, he also points out that there are ample reasons to keep rates unchanged, including the latest inflation data and maintaining stable inflation expectations.On July 29th, BNP Paribas Markets 360 team expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, "although the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be completely ruled out." The banks baseline scenario is a rate hike in December, but "there is a significant risk that policymakers will strengthen inflation language in the FOMC statement, which would be tantamount to suggesting a September rate hike is on the agenda." Language regarding price stability will be a focus of discussion at this meeting, and the statement will reflect a willingness to act if necessary. However, even without such language in the statement, a September rate hike is not ruled out; conversely, the inclusion of such language does not guarantee a September rate hike. At the press conference, Warsh is expected to largely follow the pattern of June: a brief opening, concise answers, and very limited forward guidance. Assuming the statement is not significantly different from June, we believe the opening remarks will closely follow Warshs testimony to Congress, and his statements on inflation and labor data, the economic outlook, and his commitment to restoring price stability will also be consistent with his testimony.July 29th - Shanghais central urban area is accelerating its efforts to acquire existing homes. On July 26th, 2026, reporters learned from the Shanghai Municipal Housing Administration Bureau that since the pilot program for acquiring existing homes for use in affordable rental housing was launched in February this year, Xuhui, Pudong, and Jingan districts have actively explored this approach. As of July 25th, the three pilot districts had acquired a total of 551 existing homes, of which 16 households have already completed the replacement and purchase of new homes. Huangpu, Changning, Hongkou, Putuo, and Yangpu districts subsequently expanded the program in May, actively serving residents home replacement needs, promoting the effective flow of existing housing assets, and accelerating the supply of affordable rental housing in the central urban area.On July 29th, Gary Puzzio, Chief Investment Officer of Private Wealth in the US at CIBC, stated that Warshs hawkish stance on price stability, coupled with a batch of weak data (CPI and non-farm payrolls), may be enough to keep the Federal Reserve on hold. This aligns with market sentiment. "Interest rate futures point to a no-go at the July meeting," Puzzio said, "but expectations for a September rate hike have been rising. Given the current geopolitical context, September is still a long time away, and the Fed will have more data to process between now and September 16th."According to data released by the Petroleum Institute of Japan (PAJ) on July 29th, as of the week ending July 25th, Japans commercial crude oil inventories stood at 10.8845 million kiloliters, a decrease of 320,605 kiloliters from the previous weeks 11.2051 million kiloliters. Refinery operational capacity (BPSD) utilization was 88.7%, compared to 89.6% the previous week. Refinery design capacity (BPCD) utilization was 78.0%, compared to 78.8% the previous week.

The chances of a bearish reversal for the USD/CHF rise as bears test the 200-EMA

Daniel Rogers

Jul 19, 2022 11:59

 截屏2022-07-19 上午10.03.58.png

 

The USD/CHF pair has gone sideways after exhibiting volatile volatility on Monday. The asset will likely trade sideways until volatility decreases since it hits resistance at 0.9780. As a result of failing to exceed the crucial resistance level of 0.09000, the asset saw a substantial fall.

 

A major negative reversal was foreseen by the formation of the Double Top chart pattern when the price failed to maintain its position above Tuesday's high at 0.9859. The aforementioned chart pattern frequently indicates waning demand at high levels. A negative reversal is now more likely as a result of the development of a selling tail around high levels.

 

Following the formation of a double top, the asset is forming an initiative selling structure, which points to the entry of those investors who start short positions after a bearish bias has been created. At 0.9767, the major is forming an initiative structure inside the 200-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) border, demonstrating that market participants are respecting the significant EMA.

 

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14), which signals an oncoming consolidation, has shifted into a range between 40.00 and 60.00. The asset will reach the July 5 top of 0.9705 with a sharp decrease below the July 13 low of 0.9758. If the latter barrier is breached, the asset will be more vulnerable to losses up to the 1. July high of 0.9642.

 

Alternatively, following Wednesday's violation of the 0.9827 high, the dollar bulls may defend the double top pattern. The asset will be propelled by this to its top on Thursday of 0.9886 and then encounter psychological resistance at 1.0000.


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