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On August 30th, SK Hynix CEO Guo Luzheng stated that the global memory chip shortage is expected to continue until the end of 2030, while the risk of oversupply is low because in the AI era, memory chips are no longer "simply standardized commodities." Despite market concerns about an AI investment bubble, he said he "sees no" signs of oversupply or a potential memory chip downturn, as demand from AI customers remains strong. He added, "If we pass the AI peak, or if another downturn occurs in the future, challenges may arise. But I think the next downturn will be different from the slumps weve experienced in the past few decades. Even if a downturn comes, I dont think it will be a sharp decline, but rather a slow decrease in demand, and it may even stabilize."On August 30th, according to a report by Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during a secret visit to Moscow earlier this week, proposed a trilateral summit between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to push for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources said that part of Ratcliffes visit was to assess whether the head of Russian intelligence could persuade Putin to return to the US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. This marks Ratcliffes first involvement in diplomatic efforts to achieve a breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine relations. The report stated that US officials briefed Zelenskyy on Ratcliffes talks in Moscow on Friday (August 28th) and the proposal for a trilateral summit between the US, Russia, and Ukraine.Conflict Situation: 1. Israel launches attacks in southern Lebanon. 2. Iran claims to have destroyed a US-Israeli "terrorist group" within its territory. 3. Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief: The enemy failed to achieve its war objectives; Iran has won. 4. Palestinian residents attempting to protect their properties are attacked by Israeli settlers. 5. NBC News team is attacked and beaten with sticks by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. 6. Israel Defense Forces: A Noukba company commander and a Hamas sniper are killed in the Gaza Strip. Strait of Hormuz: 1. Irans Deputy Foreign Minister states there is no rush to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is "completely closed": all transit vessels have received Iranian permission. 3. Bessant claims 130 million barrels of crude oil are being channeled through the strait; Iranian Parliament Speaker: This is a lie. 4. According to Irans Press TV: Security sources indicate that claims about large quantities of oil being transported through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz are inconsistent with the actual situation. Claims that the US is transporting oil through the southern Strait of Hormuz are part of a US strategy to lower energy prices. Other matters: 1. Iran says US military bases in the region are only for protecting Israel. 2. US Central Command says approximately 50,000 US troops are deployed in the Middle East. 3. The US military plans to punish the sailors who jumped aboard the USS Lincoln. 4. Iranian media: $7.5 billion in oil revenue has been transferred to the Central Bank of Iran. 5. Qatari and Turkish foreign ministers spoke by phone to discuss easing tensions in the Middle East. 6. Iranian Foreign Minister: US government officials are manipulating the energy market for personal gain. 7. US sanctions against Egyptian banks UAE branch; UAE Central Bank to conduct emergency inspection. 8. Israels National Security Agency: Previously, they urgently "rescued" Netanyahus eldest son from the US. 9. US Embassy in Lebanon: Hezbollah continues to refuse to negotiate with the US and Israel on disarmament. 10. Iranian government statement: Iran pledges to resolutely resist US sanctions; diplomacy and defense are "complementary and inseparable."August 30th - A press conference on the "8.26" mudslide disaster in Gyirong, Tibet, was held today (August 30th) in Gyirong Town. On the morning of August 26th, a mudslide on the Nepalese side caused significant casualties and missing persons at the Gyirong Port in Gyirong County, Shigatse City, Tibet. Analysis indicates that the most prominent risk hindering the disaster response was the landslide dam located above the core area of the border crossing. The dam has already overflowed and is currently in stable condition, with a low probability of a complete collapse.On August 30th, a press conference was held in Gyirong Town, Tibet, regarding the "8.26" mudslide disaster. On the morning of August 26th, a mudslide occurred on the Nepalese side, causing significant casualties and missing persons at the Gyirong Port in Gyirong County, Shigatse City, Tibet. The conference explained that this disaster was caused by glacial instability due to long-term climate warming. The disaster was sudden, with a large peak flow, rapid movement, strong destructive power, and a wide impact area, representing a new and significant characteristic of cryosphere disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and surrounding areas. Monitoring revealed that the ice avalanche took only about 6 to 7 minutes from its occurrence to its impact on the Gyirong Port in my country.

The USD/JPY is nearing 144.00 on rising rates and decreased risk appetite ahead of Powell's speech

Daniel Rogers

Sep 26, 2022 14:34

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The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen to a new intraday high of 143.60 as trading began in Tokyo on Monday, adding to the recovery gains seen on Friday. By doing so, the yen pair has reversed its decline from the 24-year high the day before, which had been brought about by Japan's action to protect the national currency.

 

The recent rise in the value of the yen may be attributable to Naoyuki Shinohara, Japan's former top currency ambassador. Shinohara told Reuters that Japan would focus on smoothing operations to reduce volatility rather than intervening in the currency market to protect a symbolic level, such as 145 yen per dollar.

 

From Thursday's highest levels since 1998, the USD/JPY quickly reversed course as Japan's senior currency ambassador Masato Kanda confirmed that they had intervened in the FX market. As he put it, the government "took significant action in the foreign exchange market."

 

Positive USD/JPY buyers are buoyed by rising US PMIs, rising Russia-Ukraine tensions, and hawkish central bankers other than the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

 

Recent US S&P Global PMIs for August, issued on Friday, showed an increase in the Manufacturing index to 51.8 from 51.5, and an increase in the Services index to 49.0 from 44.6. In a statement released on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, "We are committed to employ our capabilities." Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard then added that low-income people are feeling the effects of "hard" inflation. Despite the economy's continuing speed, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told CBS' "Face the Nation" over the weekend that he still believes the central bank can cut inflation without substantial job losses.

 

As President Zelenskiy of Ukraine was quoted as saying in a CBS interview, "Putin's nuclear threats may have been a bluff, but now it may be a reality," While Russia's foreign minister said annexing territory hosting widely criticized referendums would be met with complete protection from Moscow, the United States warned of "catastrophic ramifications" if Moscow utilized nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

 

As yields backed the US currency to remain strong despite aggressive Fedspeak and a rate hike, market fears caused Wall Street to close in the red. Although this occurs, S&P 500 Futures only fall by a few points as 10-year US Treasury yields climb by four basis points to 3.74 percent.

 

Going forward, USD/JPY buyers are expected to keep their upper hand while keeping a careful eye on any signs from Japan's engagement and words by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, both of which are due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Although the recent higher lows and firmer RSI, which is not overbought, favor USD/JPY buyers, conviction requires a daily closing above the 13-day-old resistance line, now at 144.00 as of press time. Conversely, the downside is capped by the 21-day moving average around 142.25.