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Chart: Speculative Sentiment Index on Friday, March 20, 2026Deutsche Bank: This new benchmark (forecast) carries two-way risks. If tensions in the Middle East ease quickly, the ECB may not raise rates at all. Alternatively, if there is a more prolonged disruption to energy supplies, the 2.50% rate may simply be a transitional phase towards a clearly tightening stance.March 20th Futures News: On March 20th, the Shanghai Futures Exchanges energy and chemical warehouse receipts and changes are as follows: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 165,075 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 17,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 360 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 4,160 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts: 36,100 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts: 57,880 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 3,511,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 43,120 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.March 20th - Rising oil prices are a headache for overseas importers, but they may be shifting the burden onto US assets. Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, global oil import costs have increased, and the currencies of most major economies have been impacted against the US dollar. This double whammy creates a situation where, with a stronger dollar and soaring oil prices, overseas countries and companies may ultimately have to sell off their holdings of US stocks and bonds to pay for the suddenly more expensive oil. This is a risk worth monitoring, especially given the growing share of the US market held by foreign countries and governments. Bridget Kurana, a portfolio manager at Wellington Management, stated that so far, foreign investors havent needed to liquidate US assets to finance higher energy costs. However, if oil prices remain high, these countries (such as Japan and South Korea) may need to reduce their holdings of US stocks and bonds to raise funds for energy imports.Deutsche Bank: It expects the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September, whereas its previous forecast was to keep rates unchanged in 2026.

The AUD/USD has dropped from its monthly high at 0.6990 due to poor Australian PMIs and a rebound in the DXY

Alina Haynes

Jul 22, 2022 14:50

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After retesting the monthly high earlier in the day, the AUD/USD continued to slide in Friday's Asian trading. It drops back down to where it started the day, at 0.6916. Recent declines in the Aussie pair may be attributable to the poor prints of Australia's flash readings of S&P Global PMIs for July. The resurgence of the US dollar in the face of pessimistic attitude also affects the pair.

 

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Australia dropped to 55.7 in July from 56.2 in June and the 56.4 forecast. Additionally, the S&P Global Services PMI dropped to 50.4 during the mentioned month, which was below the 55.0 consensus and the 52.6 readings seen previously. Moreover, the S&P Global Composite PMI has dropped from 52.6 in prior readings to 50.6 today.

 

Conversely, as risk aversion returns to the market, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining bids and is on track to revisit its intraday high at 106.70, up 0.12% on the day. It's worth remembering that the DXY dropped the day before because it was pegged to US Treasury rates, and that the benchmark 10-year bond coupons had their worst daily loss since mid-June.

 

The yield drop might be the result of a number of factors, including the European Central Bank's (ECB) surprise rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) and the implementation of a new tool known as the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to manage irrational market dynamics in the area.

 

Additionally, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia restarting its gas exports to Europe boosted market sentiment and aided AUD/USD purchasers the day before.

 

In light of this, Wall Street benchmarks ended the day stronger and the 10-year Treasury rates for the US Treasury had their greatest daily decline in five weeks. However, as of the time of publication, S&P 500 Futures are down 0.50 percent.

 

The ECB's decision to limit the market's confidence as well as long-standing worries about a recession and COVID are the sources of the most recent dip in mood.

 

Nevertheless, the risk-off attitude may affect the AUD/USD pricing going ahead. However, pessimistic predictions for the US PMIs in July give purchasers reason for optimism.


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