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March 20th - Generally, geopolitical conflicts can fuel market risk aversion, pushing up gold prices. For example, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, gold prices surged within two weeks. However, since the outbreak of the Iraq War, while oil and the US dollar have soared, gold has experienced a continuous decline. "This counterintuitive trend in gold prices is mainly due to the fact that interest rate logic is significantly suppressing safe-haven logic," said Qu Rui, Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department at Orient Securities. He added that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the continued rise in oil prices are pushing up global inflation expectations, which may reinforce the Federal Reserves stance of maintaining unchanged interest rates, putting downward pressure on precious metals. Qu Rui cautioned that short-term gold price movements still need to focus on factors such as the Federal Reserves interest rate cut window and the evolution of the Middle East situation, and to be wary of potential risks such as unexpectedly high global inflation and escalating geopolitical conflicts.European Council President Costa: (Regarding Hungarian Prime Minister Orbáns obstruction of loans to Ukraine) No one can blackmail the European Council.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The EU will provide loans to Ukraine regardless of the circumstances.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: We will consider the industry’s concerns about the carbon emissions trading system.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: We need to modernize the EUs carbon pricing mechanism.

The AUD/USD has dropped from its monthly high at 0.6990 due to poor Australian PMIs and a rebound in the DXY

Alina Haynes

Jul 22, 2022 14:50

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After retesting the monthly high earlier in the day, the AUD/USD continued to slide in Friday's Asian trading. It drops back down to where it started the day, at 0.6916. Recent declines in the Aussie pair may be attributable to the poor prints of Australia's flash readings of S&P Global PMIs for July. The resurgence of the US dollar in the face of pessimistic attitude also affects the pair.

 

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Australia dropped to 55.7 in July from 56.2 in June and the 56.4 forecast. Additionally, the S&P Global Services PMI dropped to 50.4 during the mentioned month, which was below the 55.0 consensus and the 52.6 readings seen previously. Moreover, the S&P Global Composite PMI has dropped from 52.6 in prior readings to 50.6 today.

 

Conversely, as risk aversion returns to the market, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining bids and is on track to revisit its intraday high at 106.70, up 0.12% on the day. It's worth remembering that the DXY dropped the day before because it was pegged to US Treasury rates, and that the benchmark 10-year bond coupons had their worst daily loss since mid-June.

 

The yield drop might be the result of a number of factors, including the European Central Bank's (ECB) surprise rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) and the implementation of a new tool known as the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to manage irrational market dynamics in the area.

 

Additionally, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia restarting its gas exports to Europe boosted market sentiment and aided AUD/USD purchasers the day before.

 

In light of this, Wall Street benchmarks ended the day stronger and the 10-year Treasury rates for the US Treasury had their greatest daily decline in five weeks. However, as of the time of publication, S&P 500 Futures are down 0.50 percent.

 

The ECB's decision to limit the market's confidence as well as long-standing worries about a recession and COVID are the sources of the most recent dip in mood.

 

Nevertheless, the risk-off attitude may affect the AUD/USD pricing going ahead. However, pessimistic predictions for the US PMIs in July give purchasers reason for optimism.


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