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1. Sudden Geopolitical Developments: The White House press secretary confirmed that the United States and Iran will hold their first round of talks in Pakistan on April 11. The US delegation will be led by Vice President Vance and others. Iran has proposed a new plan as a basis for negotiations, but the US "red line" demanding that Iran stop uranium enrichment remains unchanged. 2. Risk of Spread from Conflict: The Israeli Air Force launched its largest airstrike against Hezbollah in Lebanon since the start of the conflict (attacking 100 targets in 10 minutes), resulting in 112 deaths and 837 injuries in Lebanon. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently issued a strong statement, saying that if the attacks do not cease, Iran is prepared to launch a "heavy retaliation" against Israel that it will regret. 3. Logic Behind Market Fluctuations: Guoxin Futures analysis points out that the previous ceasefire between the US and Iran led to a more than 15% plunge in crude oil prices. Easing inflationary pressures opened up room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This, coupled with the Peoples Bank of Chinas 17 consecutive months of gold purchases and speculative funds, contributed to the surge in gold and silver prices. Huaxin Futures believes that the speculative attributes of gold are now surpassing its safe-haven attributes, and the recovery in risk appetite has amplified the price increases. 4. Market Trend Analysis: Guoxin Futures believes that considering the US-Iran ceasefire has only lasted two weeks and Trumps policy style is highly volatile, the technical pattern has not yet formed a clear breakout. Four key factors need to be monitored: First, the implementation of the ceasefire agreement; second, Trumps latest statements; third, the subsequent gold purchases by central banks; and fourth, US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. 5. Dongwu Futures: Looking ahead, a temporary ceasefire does not represent a resolution of the core conflict, and the risk of further negotiation setbacks and fluctuating situations remains. 6. Guangfa Futures: The US-Iran ceasefire agreement was obstructed, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, gold prices surged and then sharply retreated, and the Federal Reserve minutes showed divergent attitudes towards inflation and interest rates. Short-term geopolitical shocks are diminishing. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)Germanys seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month rate and trade balance for February will be released in ten minutes.ANZ Bank: Oil supply disruptions have significantly tightened the global crude oil supply and demand balance, and the market is rapidly shifting from a supply glut at the beginning of the year to a significant shortage.India’s Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas will pay an official visit to Qatar from April 9 to 10, 2026.British Foreign Secretary Cooper: We should support the International Maritime Organizations proposal regarding ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Fundamental freedoms of the sea must not be unilaterally deprived or sold out.

The AUD/USD has dropped from its monthly high at 0.6990 due to poor Australian PMIs and a rebound in the DXY

Alina Haynes

Jul 22, 2022 14:50

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After retesting the monthly high earlier in the day, the AUD/USD continued to slide in Friday's Asian trading. It drops back down to where it started the day, at 0.6916. Recent declines in the Aussie pair may be attributable to the poor prints of Australia's flash readings of S&P Global PMIs for July. The resurgence of the US dollar in the face of pessimistic attitude also affects the pair.

 

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Australia dropped to 55.7 in July from 56.2 in June and the 56.4 forecast. Additionally, the S&P Global Services PMI dropped to 50.4 during the mentioned month, which was below the 55.0 consensus and the 52.6 readings seen previously. Moreover, the S&P Global Composite PMI has dropped from 52.6 in prior readings to 50.6 today.

 

Conversely, as risk aversion returns to the market, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining bids and is on track to revisit its intraday high at 106.70, up 0.12% on the day. It's worth remembering that the DXY dropped the day before because it was pegged to US Treasury rates, and that the benchmark 10-year bond coupons had their worst daily loss since mid-June.

 

The yield drop might be the result of a number of factors, including the European Central Bank's (ECB) surprise rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) and the implementation of a new tool known as the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to manage irrational market dynamics in the area.

 

Additionally, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia restarting its gas exports to Europe boosted market sentiment and aided AUD/USD purchasers the day before.

 

In light of this, Wall Street benchmarks ended the day stronger and the 10-year Treasury rates for the US Treasury had their greatest daily decline in five weeks. However, as of the time of publication, S&P 500 Futures are down 0.50 percent.

 

The ECB's decision to limit the market's confidence as well as long-standing worries about a recession and COVID are the sources of the most recent dip in mood.

 

Nevertheless, the risk-off attitude may affect the AUD/USD pricing going ahead. However, pessimistic predictions for the US PMIs in July give purchasers reason for optimism.


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