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On June 4th, Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that reports indicate Israel and Lebanon, under US guidance, have reached a framework agreement for a ceasefire, with full-scale talks scheduled to resume the week of June 22nd. However, this is contingent on Hezbollahs complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market will likely absorb this headline, largely treating it as already priced in. This Lebanese ceasefire plan, framed by Hezbollahs adherence to the agreement and the establishment of a "pilot zone," is essentially a document aimed at advancing the process, not a final solution. The condition attached to the plan—Hezbollahs complete ceasefire and withdrawal from the Litani River region—is precisely the crux of the failures that led to previous arrangements. The market will note that the next round of substantive negotiations will not take place until the week of June 22nd, three weeks from now. If there is any definite takeaway, it is that this announcement confirms the Lebanese front remains a dynamic and unpredictable factor, rather than a settled situation. At the same time, it does not offer any substantial help in resolving the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, or in alleviating the broader US-Iran conflict that is currently driving up oil prices.U.S. State Department: All parties condemn Irans attacks on countries in the region.On June 4th, US President Trump told reporters at the White House on the 3rd that negotiations between the US and Iran were progressing well and an agreement could be reached by the end of the week. Trump said, "Ive heard the negotiations themselves are going very well, actually quite well… If an agreement is reached, it will likely be announced this weekend." When asked whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would still be in effect after Irans latest attack on Kuwait, Trump said, "Everything happens for a reason," adding that the US military had launched a fairly heavy attack on Iran two nights ago, "so some things happen for a reason, and those reasons usually make some sense." He also said that Irans actions were "not a big deal," and that "we have the situation under control and have quickly nipped it in the bud."According to The Information, Meta Platforms (META.O) plans to charge up to $200 per month for its planned "Hatch" AI agent.Broadcom CEO: The company plans to deliver 10 gigawatts of computing power in 2027, and expects to achieve even greater computing power growth in 2028.

The 1.1250 level provides resistance for the GBP/USD as hawkish Fed bets rise

Daniel Rogers

Oct 17, 2022 14:49

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The risk-on attitude has started to wane in the Tokyo session, which has reinforced the GBP/USD pair's bids. The start of the US quarterly results season sparked a rise in the S&P500 on Monday after a down Friday, but it has since faded.

 

The US dollar index (DXY) has attempted a recovery after dropping below the critical support level of 113.00. While US 10-year Treasury yields have been doing poorly. Strong bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) have helped to maintain the current downward tendency in rates. The likelihood of a 75 bps rate hike has increased to 99.4%, according to CME FedWatch.

 

Political unrest in the UK, where Prime Minister Liz Truss last week ousted Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, has also contributed to volatility in the sterling area. UK Finance Minister Kwarteng's resignation from his position appears to be the result of preparations for the reversal of the anticipated hike in corporate taxes to 25% starting in 2023.

 

Earlier, a sell-off on the UK bond market was sparked by the decision to freeze corporate tax rates at 19%. Significant bids were made on the UK stock exchanges, and the yields on government bonds shot through the roof. This forced the Bank of England (BOE) to step in and announce a plan to buy bonds in order to shield pension funds that were exposed to gilts.

 

Goldman Sachs predicts a dismal economic outlook for the UK, thus the pound bulls may experience volatility. The bank stated, "We have reduced our UK growth projection and now predict a more severe recession, taking into consideration weaker growth momentum, significantly tighter financial conditions, and the hike in corporate tax beginning in April of next year." Additionally, the bank downgrades its earlier forecast of a 0.4% fall in the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023 to one of 1%.


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