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The Bank of Thailand stated that given the significant economic slowdown and increased risks, monetary policy could be further eased.December 17th - Analyst Justin Low commented on the UK CPI: Overall, there is some good news; price pressures are easing and beginning to show signs of further weakening, especially after months of no progress. However, unless services inflation also begins to slow more meaningfully, the Bank of England may still find it difficult to push for further rate cuts next year. At least for now, they can easily stick to their plan from this week. But looking ahead to next year, several months of inflation data will need to show a similar trend to support their view.According to the latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Region in the UAE, as of the week ending December 15, 2025, total refined product inventories at the Port of Fujairah were 20.142 million barrels, a decrease of 3.37 million barrels from the previous week. Specifically, light distillate inventories decreased by 431,000 barrels to 6.885 million barrels, middle distillate inventories decreased by 692,000 barrels to 2.576 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories decreased by 2.247 million barrels to 10.681 million barrels.December 17th - UK November CPI unexpectedly fell to 3.2% from 3.6% in October, the lowest level in eight months, compared to market expectations of a 3.5% decline, although the Bank of England had predicted a slightly larger drop of 3.4% earlier this month. Financial markets had previously priced in a more than 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% by the Bank of England on Thursday, although many economists believe this decision would be more balanced. Last month, the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to keep interest rates unchanged, breaking the quarterly rate-cutting rhythm that had been in place since 2024. Economists expect the Bank of England to cut rates by a narrow 5-4 margin in December.The governor of Central Bank Indonesia said that global economic growth is expected to slow to 3% in 2026 due to the impact of US tariff policies.

Stock Markets Analysis – Is Recession Possible?

Skylar Shaw

Jun 30, 2022 14:50

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Data released yesterday showed that consumer confidence decreased more than anticipated in June, reaching a six-month low, adding fuel to those worries.

consumer assurance

According to the Conference Board, the decline was caused by rising inflation and worries about a potential recession. Consumers' expectations for wage growth, the job market, and business conditions have dropped to their lowest points in over a decade, giving them a rather bleak short-term picture for the economy as a whole.


Bulls, on the other hand, highlight specifics from the Consumer Confidence report that show US consumers do not intend to cut back on spending as much as some have feared, with future spending plans for automobiles and other expensive items like refrigerators and washing machines actually increasing... so they claim. Given that gas prices have increased by up to $5 a gallon in many areas and that grocery store food prices are much higher than they were in the past, it's difficult for me to see where people would find the bigger lump sums of money.


You have to think that the US consumer will eventually reach a credit card limit and lose the ability to refinance and leverage their properties. Remember that consumer spending makes up over 70% of our economy, so if it declines, the economy will as well.


How much will consumer spending slow down, I wonder? Perhaps not much right now, but if the Fed keeps raising interest rates and the price of food and energy continues to rise—which I believe it will—the US consumer will ultimately suffer greatly.

Q2 earnings

For S&P 500 businesses, experts on Wall Street presently forecast Q2 profit growth of +4.3 percent, down from approximately +6 percent at the end of March. As we approach Q2 earnings season, which "unofficially" begins on July 13 with reports from major Wall Street Banks, many on Wall Street believe that expectations will be lowered even more.


Investors today will be analyzing more remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will take part in a panel discussion at a bank symposium sponsored by the European Central Bank.


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