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On February 7th, Federal Reserve Chairman Daly wrote that when communicating with businesses, they exhibit cautious optimism. Economic growth is strong, consumer spending remains stable, job supply is ample, and increased productivity is helping to control costs. However, after speaking with workers, they are less certain. This is reflected in recent polls, which show Americans expect fewer jobs and a rising unemployment rate. In many ways, this disconnect is justified. We are already in a period of relatively low hiring and layoffs, and this has been the case for some time. This situation may continue, but workers are keenly aware that it could change rapidly, leaving them in a labor market with fewer hires and more layoffs. This situation is indeed unsettling, given that inflation is above the FOMCs 2% target. And what does this mean for policy? We must balance both sides of our mission. Americans need both price stability and full employment, and we cannot take either for granted.On February 7th, the General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 18 of 2026, promulgating the "Interim Measures of the Customs of the Peoples Republic of China for the Supervision of Business Premises and Goods Subject to Zero Duty Import for Consumption by Residents in the Hainan Free Trade Port." These measures officially came into effect on the date of issuance. The Measures clarify that the Customs will supervise the "zero duty" duty-free shops and "zero duty" imported goods in the Hainan Free Trade Port in accordance with the management regulations for duty-free shops and duty-free goods. Specifically, "zero duty" imported goods must be imported from overseas and processed through customs procedures by the operating units of the "zero duty" duty-free shops, and must be sold in designated areas (counters) within the duty-free shops, and must not be stored together with other goods. Residents of the island must proactively present their valid identification documents when purchasing "zero duty" imported goods for verification of identity.Market news: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Rhein Group will explore new opportunities to supply liquefied natural gas to the German and European markets.Market news: The Iranian delegation has left Muscat.Federal Reserves Daly: Businesses are cautiously optimistic, while workers are less certain.

Stock Markets Analysis – Is Recession Possible?

Skylar Shaw

Jun 30, 2022 14:50

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Data released yesterday showed that consumer confidence decreased more than anticipated in June, reaching a six-month low, adding fuel to those worries.

consumer assurance

According to the Conference Board, the decline was caused by rising inflation and worries about a potential recession. Consumers' expectations for wage growth, the job market, and business conditions have dropped to their lowest points in over a decade, giving them a rather bleak short-term picture for the economy as a whole.


Bulls, on the other hand, highlight specifics from the Consumer Confidence report that show US consumers do not intend to cut back on spending as much as some have feared, with future spending plans for automobiles and other expensive items like refrigerators and washing machines actually increasing... so they claim. Given that gas prices have increased by up to $5 a gallon in many areas and that grocery store food prices are much higher than they were in the past, it's difficult for me to see where people would find the bigger lump sums of money.


You have to think that the US consumer will eventually reach a credit card limit and lose the ability to refinance and leverage their properties. Remember that consumer spending makes up over 70% of our economy, so if it declines, the economy will as well.


How much will consumer spending slow down, I wonder? Perhaps not much right now, but if the Fed keeps raising interest rates and the price of food and energy continues to rise—which I believe it will—the US consumer will ultimately suffer greatly.

Q2 earnings

For S&P 500 businesses, experts on Wall Street presently forecast Q2 profit growth of +4.3 percent, down from approximately +6 percent at the end of March. As we approach Q2 earnings season, which "unofficially" begins on July 13 with reports from major Wall Street Banks, many on Wall Street believe that expectations will be lowered even more.


Investors today will be analyzing more remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will take part in a panel discussion at a bank symposium sponsored by the European Central Bank.


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