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On March 19th, Shigeto Nagai, Head of Japan Economics at Oxford Economics, stated that given the possibility of stagflation in the Japanese economy, they now expect the Bank of Japan to postpone its next interest rate hike from June to July. Thereafter, they anticipate the central bank will continue to gradually raise rates in the first and third quarters of 2027. In the short term, rising energy costs will re-accelerate supply-side driven inflation. They now believe that core CPI will not return to 2% until the second quarter of 2027, rather than the fourth quarter of 2026. Despite a strong expected outcome from the spring wage negotiations, higher inflation will limit real income growth. Therefore, they have lowered their 2026 real GDP growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 0.3%. Despite concerns about inflationary pressures and a weaker yen, they believe the Bank of Japan may become more cautious about raising interest rates, prioritizing the impact on corporate profits and real household income.Market news: On Thursday, the Japanese House of Representatives approved the addition of two dovish monetary policy strategists nominated by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to the central banks board of directors: Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato. This move could influence the central banks decisions on the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes.1. JD Cloud: Offers greater discounts on multiple products, with an average price reduction of over 16%. 2. Alibaba Cloud: AI computing power and storage products see price increases of up to 34%. 3. Baidu AI Cloud releases price adjustment announcements for AI computing power, storage, and other products. 4. Ma Huateng publicly discusses "shrimp farming" for the first time: it can be combined with WeChats decentralized philosophy. 5. MiniMax releases its new generation large-format model M2.7. 6. Xiaomi releases its large-format model MiMo-V2-Pro. 7. Germany plans to significantly increase AI computing power. 8. HSBC reportedly considers large-scale layoffs; AI restructuring may affect approximately 20,000 jobs. 9. Foxconn and SAP sign strategic cooperation agreement to accelerate AI-driven manufacturing and supply chain transformation. 10. AI security startup Xbows valuation surpasses $1 billion. 11. Samsung Electronics and AMD sign memorandum of understanding to explore foundry cooperation.The UKs Office of Maritime Trade Operations said it had received a report of an incident that occurred 4 nautical miles east of Ras Lafan, Qatar.The head of Japans financial regulator said that a clear growth plan is the best defense against short-term speculators.

Silver is under pressure as the dollar rises to new highs, according to silver price predictions

Daniel Rogers

Jul 12, 2022 14:38

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The U.S. dollar is testing record highs versus a wide basket of currencies while silver is going lower at the start of the week. The main negative trigger for precious metals in recent weeks has been the strengthening dollar. At the beginning of July, the U.S. Dollar Index swiftly passed through the 105 level and tested the 108 level.

 

Treasury rates have decreased from their mid-June highs, but traders' attention has remained on the strong dollar, so this movement was insufficient to boost precious metals.

 

While the U.S. dollar is technically overbought, silver is now trading in oversold territory. While the strong dollar is one issue that puts pressure on the silver markets, it is unclear if silver will be able to recover from present levels.

 

Recession worries have also played a role in the recent swing that sent silver from the $22 level to the $19 level. Silver is sensitive to industrial demand. The U.S. economy is still doing rather well, but there is no doubt that the European economy is about to enter a recession.

 

Markets are concerned that the Fed's rapid rate increases may cause the US economy to contract. The Fed does have an opportunity to plan a "soft landing," though. If the incoming economic data shows that the American economy is slowing, silver will swiftly pick up further bearish momentum and go below the $19 mark.

 

The U.S. Inflation Rate data, which will be announced on Wednesday, should be closely watched by silver dealers. Analysts anticipate that prices rose 8.8% year over year in June.

 

If the news comes in worse than anticipated, silver will take two hits. The price of precious metals will decline as a result of the strengthening of the US dollar. Bond markets will start pricing in more interest rate increases at the same time, which will put extra pressure on precious metals. Silver should have a fair possibility of rising from present levels if the report performs better than expected. Trading may remain choppy until Wednesday since the inflation report may have a big influence on the markets.