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On August 21, analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets noted in a report that European Central Bank policymakers may have been somewhat relieved so far by the relatively limited indirect impact of the energy shock on other commodity prices. "Of course, the pressure is mainly concentrated in the early stages of the production chain and in industries most vulnerable to oil and gas prices," they stated. However, with wholesale oil and gas prices rising again in recent weeks, the risk of further exacerbation of the indirect transmission effect and a second round of price impacts lasting longer is also increasing.On August 21st, economists at Sumitomo Mitsui Nikko Securities stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to raise its policy rate from the current 1% to 1.25% at its next meeting in September. They noted that the BOJ is expected to raise rates again in January and June 2027, eventually reaching a policy rate of 1.75%. They added, "After next summer, import-driven inflationary pressures are expected to ease, making it unlikely that the BOJ will raise the policy rate to 2%—a level higher than the markets average estimate of the neutral rate." The overnight index swap market currently indicates an 84% probability of a BOJ rate hike in September, with two more hikes expected by early 2027.Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov: Whats important now is how Washington can influence decision-making in Kyiv and Europe.Indias preliminary composite PMI for August was 54.6, below the expected 54.4 and the previous reading of 54.3.Indias preliminary services PMI for August was 54.5, below the expected 53.8 and the previous reading of 53.3.

Silver Price Analysis: Bulls maintain control of the XAGUSD and could target the $22.50 supply zone

Alina Haynes

Nov 11, 2022 17:35

 截屏2022-11-08 下午5.37.02_1024x576.png

 

On Friday, silver extends its breakout momentum through the extremely significant 200-day simple moving average for a second consecutive session. During the early European session, the white metal reaches a five-month high, but struggles to achieve acceptance beyond the $22.00 round-figure threshold. However, the XAGUSD maintains its intraday gains and is currently trading in the $21.85-$21.90 range, up about 0.90% for the day.

 

The overnight rise from levels below $21.00 and subsequent strength above a technically key moving average bolster the likelihood of a near-term advance. However, the RSI (14) on the daily chart is close to entering overbought territory and aggressive bullish traders should proceed with caution. Before positioning for further gains, it is recommended to wait for some near-term consolidation or a slight drop.

 

Nevertheless, the XAGUSD is prepared to surpass $22.00 and may seek to test the next significant barrier near $22.45-$22.50. The aforementioned region represents a dense supply zone and may prove difficult for bulls to penetrate. However, some follow-through purchasing will signal a new breakout and pave the way for a move toward recovering the $23.00 round number. The momentum might eventually propel spot prices to a May swing high in the vicinity of $23.25 to $23.30.

 

In contrast, the daily low around $21.45 that coincides with the 200 DMA breakout point should protect the downside in the short term. Any more decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity and should be limited near $21.00. A decisive breach below might spark technical selling and bring the XAGUSD below the $20.40 support zone. Failure to defend the previously mentioned support levels could shift the near-term bias toward bearish traders.

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