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On September 20th, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neal Kashkari stated that U.S. inflation remains excessive, with pressures extending beyond the oil price shock caused by the Iran war and spreading to multiple sectors of the economy. The inflation felt daily by Americans is far more than just an oil price issue; it permeates all aspects of the economy. Kashkari indicated that the Fed is increasingly concerned that inflation is not only concentrated in sectors affected by Middle East conflicts or tariffs, but also showing signs of inflation in the service sector. He stated that the Feds responsibility is to bring inflation back to its target level and that it has the tools to achieve this. Kashkari was one of three opponents in the July decision to keep interest rates unchanged, at which time he favored raising rates and warned that waiting too long could lead to entrenched inflation, ultimately requiring more aggressive measures. Kashkari believes that the U.S. economy, despite facing geopolitical conflicts and trade issues, has demonstrated strong resilience, with a robust labor market. He hopes that as some of the conflicts impact gradually fades, economic growth can take over as a driving force, accelerating the cooling of inflation and thus reducing policy pressure on the Fed.On September 20th, Zhipu, a MaaS platform, officially announced that it will soon launch a data content non-retention function to provide stricter data privacy protection for enterprise and developer users. Zhipu stated that this function does not mean that data will not be retained under all circumstances. Functions such as BatchAPI and FileAPI, which require persistent storage of tasks or files on the platform side, are not covered by this function. In cases where retention is required by laws and regulations, or to investigate suspected violations or abuses, the platform may retain relevant data for 30 days or more as required.Iranian President Peshizian: We welcome any dialogue that can bring lasting security and peace, and in this process we need to have common goals.September 20 - According to a report by Fox News on the 20th, US President Trump stated in a telephone interview that the US has been in communication with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and the Houthis have agreed not to engage in war with the US.On September 20th, according to the Financial Times, Wall Street banks predict that the US will borrow approximately $1 trillion in short-term Treasury bonds over the next year to meet growing government financing needs. Bank of America projects that in the new fiscal year ending September 2027, the US will borrow approximately $1.07 trillion, excluding debt maturities; JPMorgan Chase projects approximately $1.09 trillion in short-term Treasury bond issuance in 2027, and Goldman Sachs projects $961 billion. This increase in short-term debt issuance comes as long-term borrowing costs in the US have risen to their highest level since 2007, prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant to seek to lower long-term interest rates by expanding repurchase agreements for 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds. Bank of America projects that by next September, outstanding short-term Treasury bonds will rise to approximately $8 trillion, representing 24.3% of tradable Treasury bonds; Goldman Sachs projects this ratio to be 24.3% next year and rising to 24.9% in 2028. This level is close to the peak during the pandemic, while the US Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee previously recommended maintaining a long-term short-term debt ratio of approximately 20%. Analysts say that increasing short-term debt issuance helps lower current financing costs, but it also increases future refinancing risks. Mark Cabana, head of interest rate strategy at Bank of America, said the Treasury is balancing supply and demand in the bond market, but large-scale issuance of short-term debt could lead to "larger and more volatile" interest payments. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has purchased a large amount of short-term Treasury bonds this year, and the approximately $8 trillion in assets in money market funds also provides demand support for short-term debt.

Silver Price Analysis: Bulls maintain control of the XAGUSD and could target the $22.50 supply zone

Alina Haynes

Nov 11, 2022 17:35

 截屏2022-11-08 下午5.37.02_1024x576.png

 

On Friday, silver extends its breakout momentum through the extremely significant 200-day simple moving average for a second consecutive session. During the early European session, the white metal reaches a five-month high, but struggles to achieve acceptance beyond the $22.00 round-figure threshold. However, the XAGUSD maintains its intraday gains and is currently trading in the $21.85-$21.90 range, up about 0.90% for the day.

 

The overnight rise from levels below $21.00 and subsequent strength above a technically key moving average bolster the likelihood of a near-term advance. However, the RSI (14) on the daily chart is close to entering overbought territory and aggressive bullish traders should proceed with caution. Before positioning for further gains, it is recommended to wait for some near-term consolidation or a slight drop.

 

Nevertheless, the XAGUSD is prepared to surpass $22.00 and may seek to test the next significant barrier near $22.45-$22.50. The aforementioned region represents a dense supply zone and may prove difficult for bulls to penetrate. However, some follow-through purchasing will signal a new breakout and pave the way for a move toward recovering the $23.00 round number. The momentum might eventually propel spot prices to a May swing high in the vicinity of $23.25 to $23.30.

 

In contrast, the daily low around $21.45 that coincides with the 200 DMA breakout point should protect the downside in the short term. Any more decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity and should be limited near $21.00. A decisive breach below might spark technical selling and bring the XAGUSD below the $20.40 support zone. Failure to defend the previously mentioned support levels could shift the near-term bias toward bearish traders.