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On April 27th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed A. El-Erian published an article stating that the price shock triggered by the Middle East wars has pushed market expectations towards an environment where interest rates remain at higher levels for an extended period, affecting almost all systemically important central banks, with the sole exception being the Bank of Japan, although the differences have recently narrowed, its policy framework remains self-contained. He pointed out that the current situation is not merely a simple price shock, but also accompanied by a negative demand shock from the "second-round effect," and in addition to these direct economic impacts, there is a potential risk of contagion to financial instability. He added, "All of this underscores the uncertainty of the outlook: central banks will face a series of difficult trade-offs, and I think these decisions likely (or should) boil down to a sobering question: Of all the mistakes we can make, which is the least irreversible? For central banks with a single mandate, such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, this question is relatively easier to answer; but for the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate, the situation is much more complex."According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian parliamentary committee has passed a proposal to establish a crisis management ministry.On April 27th, the National Energy Administration held its quarterly press conference. According to the press conference, 24 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have issued or formulated supporting policies for direct green power connections, and 99 direct green power connection projects nationwide have been approved, corresponding to a total installed capacity of 34.05 million kilowatts of new energy. Recently, based on the single-user direct green power connection policy, a multi-user direct green power connection policy has been formulated, allowing new energy sources to directly supply green electricity to multiple users through dedicated lines. This will promote the accelerated clean energy substitution in industrial parks and zero-carbon parks, and facilitate the wider consumption of new energy. The relevant policies will be released soon.On April 27, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad al-Kassym-Jomart Ghalibaf posted on social media on the 26th that the United States has exaggerated its bargaining chips in the energy game. Ghalibaf stated that the US has used numerous tactics, and its related strategies are in a predicament. The summer travel peak will exacerbate the pressure on the US, while Iran still holds unused "key trump cards."On April 27, the State Administration for Market Regulation selected seven provinces and municipalities—Beijing, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong—to conduct a pilot program allowing registration authorities to apply to the Peoples Courts for compulsory liquidation. The pilot programs main tasks include three aspects: First, establishing a working mechanism. Market regulation departments in the pilot areas will proactively connect with the Peoples Courts, conduct in-depth research, and determine the timetable, roadmap, and safeguard measures for the pilot program in their respective regions. Second, improving the standardization of the liquidation system. This involves establishing a corporate screening mechanism to clarify the scope of application, streamlining the various stages and material requirements for administrative and judicial coordination, supporting the liquidation team in fulfilling its duties, and encouraging the establishment of dedicated windows for efficient handling of matters such as file inquiries and deregistration. Third, strengthening business data sharing. This involves promoting the establishment of data interfaces with the Peoples Courts to achieve information sharing, and improving the functions of the "one-stop" online service platform for deregistration, providing "fully online" services for compulsory liquidation and deregistration of bankrupt enterprises.

Silver Price Analysis: Bulls maintain control of the XAGUSD and could target the $22.50 supply zone

Alina Haynes

Nov 11, 2022 17:35

 截屏2022-11-08 下午5.37.02_1024x576.png

 

On Friday, silver extends its breakout momentum through the extremely significant 200-day simple moving average for a second consecutive session. During the early European session, the white metal reaches a five-month high, but struggles to achieve acceptance beyond the $22.00 round-figure threshold. However, the XAGUSD maintains its intraday gains and is currently trading in the $21.85-$21.90 range, up about 0.90% for the day.

 

The overnight rise from levels below $21.00 and subsequent strength above a technically key moving average bolster the likelihood of a near-term advance. However, the RSI (14) on the daily chart is close to entering overbought territory and aggressive bullish traders should proceed with caution. Before positioning for further gains, it is recommended to wait for some near-term consolidation or a slight drop.

 

Nevertheless, the XAGUSD is prepared to surpass $22.00 and may seek to test the next significant barrier near $22.45-$22.50. The aforementioned region represents a dense supply zone and may prove difficult for bulls to penetrate. However, some follow-through purchasing will signal a new breakout and pave the way for a move toward recovering the $23.00 round number. The momentum might eventually propel spot prices to a May swing high in the vicinity of $23.25 to $23.30.

 

In contrast, the daily low around $21.45 that coincides with the 200 DMA breakout point should protect the downside in the short term. Any more decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity and should be limited near $21.00. A decisive breach below might spark technical selling and bring the XAGUSD below the $20.40 support zone. Failure to defend the previously mentioned support levels could shift the near-term bias toward bearish traders.