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On August 12th, a Reuters Tankan survey showed that Japans manufacturing confidence index rose to 18 in August from 13 in July, reaching its highest level since March 2026. During the same period, supported by strong domestic consumption, the non-manufacturing confidence index also rose from 25 to 28. The outlook for the next three months suggests that market sentiment will ease somewhat. Semiconductor-related demand was the main driver of the market rally, especially the significant jump in the chemical and metal machinery sub-indices, indicating that the strong momentum in the semiconductor supply chain is continuing to spread across Japans entire industrial base, rather than remaining concentrated in the hands of a few chip manufacturers. The manufacturing index reaching its highest level since March indicates that the previous drag on chip-related exporters from global trade uncertainty has largely subsided. In contrast, the transportation equipment industry index remained at 0, showing that the automotive industry has not yet significantly benefited from the recovery trend.National Australia Bank: We still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the cash rate unchanged for the remainder of 2026, and the first rate cut is still expected to take place around mid-2027.On August 12th, Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis stated that the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) decision to keep interest rates unchanged was in line with market expectations, but the change in its policy guidance is more noteworthy than the rate decision itself. Westpac believes that the RBAs statement that it is prepared to raise rates "only if upside risks to inflation materialize" is clearer than the broader "if necessary" wording used in the May meeting. Even without explicit statements, the RBA has effectively lowered its rate hike expectations. Westpacs base case has shifted to maintaining interest rates unchanged until the middle of next year. This view is based on inflation and labor market data, both of which are lower than the RBAs May forecasts. Nevertheless, Westpac cautiously describes this as a "hawkish pause" rather than a "loosening of interest rate controls." Further rate hikes are still possible for the remainder of the year, although less likely, depending primarily on the transmission effects of energy-related costs and developments in the Middle East.Japans Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Sentiment Index for August was 18, down from 13 in the previous month.Japans Reuters Tankan non-manufacturing business sentiment index for August was 28, down from 25 in the previous month.

Silver Price Analysis: Bulls maintain control of the XAGUSD and could target the $22.50 supply zone

Alina Haynes

Nov 11, 2022 17:35

 截屏2022-11-08 下午5.37.02_1024x576.png

 

On Friday, silver extends its breakout momentum through the extremely significant 200-day simple moving average for a second consecutive session. During the early European session, the white metal reaches a five-month high, but struggles to achieve acceptance beyond the $22.00 round-figure threshold. However, the XAGUSD maintains its intraday gains and is currently trading in the $21.85-$21.90 range, up about 0.90% for the day.

 

The overnight rise from levels below $21.00 and subsequent strength above a technically key moving average bolster the likelihood of a near-term advance. However, the RSI (14) on the daily chart is close to entering overbought territory and aggressive bullish traders should proceed with caution. Before positioning for further gains, it is recommended to wait for some near-term consolidation or a slight drop.

 

Nevertheless, the XAGUSD is prepared to surpass $22.00 and may seek to test the next significant barrier near $22.45-$22.50. The aforementioned region represents a dense supply zone and may prove difficult for bulls to penetrate. However, some follow-through purchasing will signal a new breakout and pave the way for a move toward recovering the $23.00 round number. The momentum might eventually propel spot prices to a May swing high in the vicinity of $23.25 to $23.30.

 

In contrast, the daily low around $21.45 that coincides with the 200 DMA breakout point should protect the downside in the short term. Any more decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity and should be limited near $21.00. A decisive breach below might spark technical selling and bring the XAGUSD below the $20.40 support zone. Failure to defend the previously mentioned support levels could shift the near-term bias toward bearish traders.

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