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On August 14th, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, a former senior Japanese foreign exchange diplomat and former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that the yen is clearly too weak at current exchange rate levels and is harming the Japanese economy by pushing up import costs. He indicated that if the yen returns to levels before last months coordinated intervention, Japan and the United States may intervene in the foreign exchange market again at any time, and the action will not be tied to a specific level such as 160 or 162 yen. Furusawa stated that intervention can only buy time; a more fundamental solution is for the Bank of Japan to accelerate its pace of interest rate hikes. He predicts that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in September, followed by another hike in December or January next year. He estimates that the Bank of Japan ultimately hopes to raise interest rates to approximately 1.5% to 1.75%. This assessment is based on his estimate of the neutral interest rate, which is 1.1% to 2.5%; if the economy maintains its growth momentum, further interest rate hikes are possible in the fiscal year beginning in April 2027.On August 14th, U.S. Central Command posted on social media that several media outlets had published "false reports" about the USS Lincolns deployment to the Middle East in the past 48 hours. The U.S. military confirmed that one report claimed "seven sailors died in a fight on board," while others suggested a "surge in suicidal thoughts among sailors"—these reports were "pure fabrications." U.S. Central Command stated that the USS Lincoln has consistently maintained "one of the highest personnel renewal rates" among all U.S. aircraft carriers. After more than 260 consecutive days at sea, conducting 10,000 sorties, and dropping 1.5 million pounds of ordnance, the Navy and Marine Corps personnel of the USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group remain "determined and in high spirits." "No service members have died," and the sailor who fell overboard on August 3rd was quickly and safely rescued.On August 14, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that, at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, President Daniel Roy-Hilchrist Noboa Asin of the Republic of Ecuador will pay a state visit to China from August 16 to 23.Former senior Japanese foreign exchange diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa: The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in September, followed by another rate hike in December or January.Former senior Japanese foreign exchange diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa: The Bank of Japan may eventually want to raise interest rates to around 1.5% to 1.75%.

Silver Price Analysis: Bulls maintain control of the XAGUSD and could target the $22.50 supply zone

Alina Haynes

Nov 11, 2022 17:35

 截屏2022-11-08 下午5.37.02_1024x576.png

 

On Friday, silver extends its breakout momentum through the extremely significant 200-day simple moving average for a second consecutive session. During the early European session, the white metal reaches a five-month high, but struggles to achieve acceptance beyond the $22.00 round-figure threshold. However, the XAGUSD maintains its intraday gains and is currently trading in the $21.85-$21.90 range, up about 0.90% for the day.

 

The overnight rise from levels below $21.00 and subsequent strength above a technically key moving average bolster the likelihood of a near-term advance. However, the RSI (14) on the daily chart is close to entering overbought territory and aggressive bullish traders should proceed with caution. Before positioning for further gains, it is recommended to wait for some near-term consolidation or a slight drop.

 

Nevertheless, the XAGUSD is prepared to surpass $22.00 and may seek to test the next significant barrier near $22.45-$22.50. The aforementioned region represents a dense supply zone and may prove difficult for bulls to penetrate. However, some follow-through purchasing will signal a new breakout and pave the way for a move toward recovering the $23.00 round number. The momentum might eventually propel spot prices to a May swing high in the vicinity of $23.25 to $23.30.

 

In contrast, the daily low around $21.45 that coincides with the 200 DMA breakout point should protect the downside in the short term. Any more decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity and should be limited near $21.00. A decisive breach below might spark technical selling and bring the XAGUSD below the $20.40 support zone. Failure to defend the previously mentioned support levels could shift the near-term bias toward bearish traders.

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