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February 19th - Federal Reserve officials reiterated their concerns about inflation, with several policymakers suggesting that the central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation persists above target. The minutes of the Feds January meeting revealed that "several participants indicated they would have supported a two-way description of the Committees future interest rate decisions, reflecting that raising the target range for the federal funds rate might be appropriate if inflation remains above target." The minutes also showed that "the vast majority of participants judged that downside risks to employment had eased in recent months, but risks to persistent inflation remained." According to the latest minutes, one group of policymakers believed that further rate cuts were unlikely, at least in the near term. The minutes stated: "Several participants cautioned that further easing of policy against the backdrop of high inflation readings could be misinterpreted as a weakening of policymakers commitment to the 2% inflation target."February 19th - The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting revealed that several participants believed further interest rate cuts were more likely if inflation fell as they expected, but most indicated that inflation was likely to progress more slowly than generally anticipated. At its January meeting, the FOMC voted 10-2 to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Waller and Milan voted against a 25 basis point cut. The committee removed wording regarding increased downside risks to employment from the previous three statements. Data released since the Feds January meeting shows accelerating economic growth, slowing inflation, and a stabilizing labor market. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose slightly in January, influenced by lower energy costs. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose in line with expectations.Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Federal Reserve staff have a stronger outlook on economic activity than in December, expecting inflation to be slightly higher than previously anticipated and the unemployment rate to gradually decline starting in 2026.Federal Reserve meeting minutes: A minority of participants favored a rate cut in January.Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Several participants believed that further rate cuts could undermine market perception of the commitment to the inflation target.

S&P 500 Price Forecast — Stock Market Looking for Footing

Florala Chen

Aug 24, 2022 15:54

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In the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has gained a little bit of stability during the Tuesday trading session as we get closer to a critical support level.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In the early stages of the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has moved in a rather narrow range. Having said that, this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is practically guaranteed to make a lot of noise. In this case, I believe the trading public will be paying great heed to central bankers' pronouncements, which, of course, may sometimes result in complete pandemonium.


In this case, I believe we could have a brief rebound followed by increased selling pressure. The 200-Day EMA is located around 4185, and there is considerable resistance at the 4300 level above. It's also important to pay attention to the 50-Day EMA, which is at 4082 and climbing below; it may provide dynamic support.


I do believe that it is extremely possible that traders will look to the 50-Day EMA to salvage the market upward, regardless of whether or not this turns out to be the case. If we break it down below that, the market is probably just trying to get to the 4000 level. Anything below the 4000 mark indicates that we have once again altered our mentality and that more downside is yet to come.


One thing you can certainly bet on, in my opinion, is a lot of noisy volatility, mostly as a result of the central bankers' ranting in Wyoming. They will almost certainly underline their resolve to battle inflation, which means that monetary policies will continue to tighten throughout the globe.