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On July 24th, three sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to maintain its warning about inflation exceeding its 2% target next week, but also hinted that these risks have not increased significantly compared to three months ago. The BOJ is expected to focus on the ongoing inflation risks from the Middle East conflict, strong global demand for artificial intelligence, and rising import costs due to a weaker yen in its quarterly outlook report to be released at its policy meeting next week. Meanwhile, the BOJ believes the likelihood of the worst-case scenario—a severe supply disruption triggering a price surge and forcing the central bank to raise interest rates rapidly—has decreased compared to three months ago. Furthermore, the statement made during its June rate hike that there is a risk of "potential consumer inflation deviating from and exceeding the 2% target" is expected to reappear. Sources said that with the risk of a short-term inflationary shock from oil prices easing, policymakers are now turning their attention to the extent to which businesses continue to pass on rising costs to households. This shift indicates that the BOJ is moving beyond the direct impact of the Middle East conflict and focusing on broader inflationary factors, including AI-related demand and a weaker yen, to assess the timing of the next rate hike.July 24th - This morning (July 24th), the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan." Officials from the Ministry of Public Security introduced the relevant situation regarding strengthening governance, protecting the peoples safety, and promoting development, and fully serving and guaranteeing the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and answered reporters questions. Currently, new types of crimes using artificial intelligence mainly include: using AI technology to forge identities, intrude into government and enterprise information systems, and steal others information and property; or impersonating acquaintances or authoritative figures to gain the trust of victims and then commit fraud; and using AI tools to generate online rumors and disrupt public order. Public security organs are making every effort to combat the above-mentioned illegal and criminal activities, while also severely cracking down on criminal gangs providing technical support, striving to eradicate the breeding ground for crime at its root. In the first half of this year, more than 170 cases of using AI tools to generate online rumors were investigated, and more than 190 people were dealt with according to law.The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by more than 2%, with PCB, robotics, and artificial intelligence concepts among the biggest losers.Sources say the Bank of Japan is shifting its focus to the extent to which businesses are passing on rising costs to households.Sources say the Bank of Japan will maintain its warning next week that inflation could exceed its 2% target, but will also suggest that the risk of an immediate price shock triggered by oil has eased since April.

S&P 500 Price Forecast — Stock Market Looking for Footing

Florala Chen

Aug 24, 2022 15:54

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In the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has gained a little bit of stability during the Tuesday trading session as we get closer to a critical support level.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In the early stages of the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has moved in a rather narrow range. Having said that, this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is practically guaranteed to make a lot of noise. In this case, I believe the trading public will be paying great heed to central bankers' pronouncements, which, of course, may sometimes result in complete pandemonium.


In this case, I believe we could have a brief rebound followed by increased selling pressure. The 200-Day EMA is located around 4185, and there is considerable resistance at the 4300 level above. It's also important to pay attention to the 50-Day EMA, which is at 4082 and climbing below; it may provide dynamic support.


I do believe that it is extremely possible that traders will look to the 50-Day EMA to salvage the market upward, regardless of whether or not this turns out to be the case. If we break it down below that, the market is probably just trying to get to the 4000 level. Anything below the 4000 mark indicates that we have once again altered our mentality and that more downside is yet to come.


One thing you can certainly bet on, in my opinion, is a lot of noisy volatility, mostly as a result of the central bankers' ranting in Wyoming. They will almost certainly underline their resolve to battle inflation, which means that monetary policies will continue to tighten throughout the globe.

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