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June 17th Futures News: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Energy and Chemical Warehouse Receipts and Changes: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 240,812 tons, down 1,297 tons from the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 20,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 1,557 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 6,640 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 31,160 tons. 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts: 21,120 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts: 94,340 tons, a decrease of 730 tons from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 2,961,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.Market news: The United States distributed the text of the interim agreement on Iran at the G7 summit, and world leaders are reviewing the framework agreement.On June 17, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian held a regular press conference. A reporter asked, "Reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Commerce has temporarily suspended adding several Chinese companies to its export control entity list. What is Chinas comment on this?" Lin Jian stated that China has consistently opposed the U.S.s overgeneralization of the concept of national security and its abuse of export control tools such as the entity list to suppress and contain Chinese companies. The U.S. should stop politicizing, instrumentalizing, and weaponizing economic, trade, and technological issues.June 17th - LBBW analysts noted in a report that investors will be paying particular attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warshs first press conference on Wednesday. As this is the new chairmans debut, "his communication will be the focus of market participants," the analysts said, adding, "He is expected to adopt a more restrained communication strategy." The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% this month.1. UBS: There is still insufficient confidence in Warshs policy stance, and his monetary policy response remains uncertain. Whether Warsh is hawkish or dovish, both could pose market pricing risks. 2. ANZ: Warsh has demonstrated a strong willingness to reform, and his reform ideas are expected to be revealed at the press conference. More detailed information may be provided in his opening speech at the Jackson Hole symposium in August. 3. Bank of America: Warsh is expected to be dovish in his press conference. We believe he will say that the Iranian conflict does not affect underlying inflation (it only has a one-off impact on price levels), therefore the Fed should "ignore" it, especially after recent news of a solution to the conflict. 4. Capital Economics: He may be asked about his views on interest rates. The risk to the market is that Warshs remarks may be more hawkish than expected—either due to a communication mishap or simply because his current stance is not as dovish as it was when he was vying for Trumps presidential nomination. 5. Yale University: If Warsh relies too heavily on soft logic such as "AI deflation" while ignoring hard data, the Fed may repeat the mistake of "temporary inflation." 6. Nordea Bank: Warsh is expected to lean towards a more neutral or even slightly hawkish stance to enhance his credibility. Any changes in his communication will be indicative rather than immediate. 7. BNY Mellon: Warsh has consistently been critical of forward guidance and may use this press conference (or limit the number of press conferences) to indicate how communication policy will change during his tenure. 8. MFS Investment Management: Given Warshs views on technological productivity, he may make dovish remarks. However, this is unlikely, as such comments at this time would damage his hawkish image.

S&P 500 Price Forecast — Stock Market Looking for Footing

Florala Chen

Aug 24, 2022 15:54

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In the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has gained a little bit of stability during the Tuesday trading session as we get closer to a critical support level.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In the early stages of the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has moved in a rather narrow range. Having said that, this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is practically guaranteed to make a lot of noise. In this case, I believe the trading public will be paying great heed to central bankers' pronouncements, which, of course, may sometimes result in complete pandemonium.


In this case, I believe we could have a brief rebound followed by increased selling pressure. The 200-Day EMA is located around 4185, and there is considerable resistance at the 4300 level above. It's also important to pay attention to the 50-Day EMA, which is at 4082 and climbing below; it may provide dynamic support.


I do believe that it is extremely possible that traders will look to the 50-Day EMA to salvage the market upward, regardless of whether or not this turns out to be the case. If we break it down below that, the market is probably just trying to get to the 4000 level. Anything below the 4000 mark indicates that we have once again altered our mentality and that more downside is yet to come.


One thing you can certainly bet on, in my opinion, is a lot of noisy volatility, mostly as a result of the central bankers' ranting in Wyoming. They will almost certainly underline their resolve to battle inflation, which means that monetary policies will continue to tighten throughout the globe.

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