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August 12th - According to NBC News, a US military intelligence assessment indicates that Irans strategic focus has shifted from its nuclear program to the Strait of Hormuz. US officials stated that the military has informed Trump that the US could attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz by force, but this operation would be "protracted, deadly, and extremely costly," and "there is no guarantee that the US will ultimately succeed." The US militarys assessment of related operational plans suggests that if Trump orders such an operation, it will result in "numerous US military casualties." Officials stated that the risk of such a large-scale military operation has been a factor considered by Trump and his advisors when discussing the next steps in Iran policy. Two European officials also stated that Iran believes it has the upper hand in negotiations through actual control of the Strait and sees this as a stronger bargaining chip than its nuclear program.On August 12, Li Chijiang, Chinas Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs, sternly refuted the so-called "ballistic missile launch notification" joint statement by the US representative at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva on August 11. He emphasized that Chinas legitimate and reasonable national defense modernization is beyond question, and that Chinas goodwill in providing advance notification of missile launches should not be hijacked by geopolitical calculations. China firmly opposes individual countries abusing the Conference on Disarmament platform for political manipulation.Venezuelan Foreign Minister Prasencia announced on social media on the 11th that Venezuela and Israel have agreed to resume consular services. The announcement stated, "The two countries have agreed to establish a coordination mechanism to provide consular services to their citizens residing in the other country when needed." On January 14, 2009, then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez decided to sever all relations with Israel. A week earlier, he expelled the Israeli ambassador to Venezuela in support of the Palestinians.On August 12th, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that the market will focus on the month-on-month change in Julys inflation data released on Wednesday, as a growing number of FOMC members indicate that inflation readings in the coming months will determine whether they believe the forecast of "inflation falling back to 2% over the next two years" is still achievable without further interest rate hikes. Newly appointed Fed Chairman Warsh has recently expressed skepticism about this framework that links policy-sensitive forecast revisions to high-frequency data. He previously stated that he does not believe the Feds current "data-dependent" policy has much practical value. Furthermore, Nick noted that the working group established by Warsh appears to be partly aimed at helping to build a framework to replace the old one. However, until the new framework is clearly defined, the old framework seems to continue operating.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukraine has submitted a proposal to US negotiators to end the war with Russia.

S&P 500 Price Forecast — Stock Market Looking for Footing

Florala Chen

Aug 24, 2022 15:54

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In the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has gained a little bit of stability during the Tuesday trading session as we get closer to a critical support level.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In the early stages of the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has moved in a rather narrow range. Having said that, this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is practically guaranteed to make a lot of noise. In this case, I believe the trading public will be paying great heed to central bankers' pronouncements, which, of course, may sometimes result in complete pandemonium.


In this case, I believe we could have a brief rebound followed by increased selling pressure. The 200-Day EMA is located around 4185, and there is considerable resistance at the 4300 level above. It's also important to pay attention to the 50-Day EMA, which is at 4082 and climbing below; it may provide dynamic support.


I do believe that it is extremely possible that traders will look to the 50-Day EMA to salvage the market upward, regardless of whether or not this turns out to be the case. If we break it down below that, the market is probably just trying to get to the 4000 level. Anything below the 4000 mark indicates that we have once again altered our mentality and that more downside is yet to come.


One thing you can certainly bet on, in my opinion, is a lot of noisy volatility, mostly as a result of the central bankers' ranting in Wyoming. They will almost certainly underline their resolve to battle inflation, which means that monetary policies will continue to tighten throughout the globe.

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