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February 20th - Japans consumer price growth slowed in January, providing more breathing room for the central banks next policy move. Data released by the Japanese government on Friday showed that the national core consumer price index (excluding volatile fresh food) rose 2.0% year-on-year in January, the slowest pace in two years, after rising 2.4% in December. Since April 2022, Japans inflation rate has remained at or above the Bank of Japans 2% target level. The timing of the Bank of Japans next interest rate hike remains a focus of market attention. Although central bank officials expect food price inflation to ease, a weaker yen could push up import costs. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis plan to suspend the food and beverage consumption tax for two years could further complicate the inflation outlook. While tax cuts may initially lower prices, this move could also stimulate consumer spending, leading to an overheated economy and ultimately exacerbating inflationary pressures.On February 20th, former Goldman Sachs strategist Robin Brooks believes that the decade-long trend of the dollar rising based on better-than-expected US monthly non-farm payroll data is coming to an end, marking a "system shift" as traders will sell the dollar on strong US job market data. He stated that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and if the Fed adopts a policy of limiting long-term nominal yields, strong non-farm payroll data could lower real yields, weaken the attractiveness of US assets, and ultimately lead to a weaker dollar. Brooks said, "The market may have doubts about Trumps policies because they have been capricious and unpredictable. The Fed has also been repeatedly attacked." He was referring to President Trumps repeated calls for central bank rate cuts. He added, "All the moves are aimed at lowering interest rates, and I think thats what the market is subconsciously thinking about." As evidence of this phenomenon, the better-than-expected January jobs report released on February 11th had almost no boosting effect on the dollar; instead, it had the opposite effect.Japans nationwide unadjusted CPI fell 0.1% month-on-month in January, compared with a previous reading of -0.2%.Japans core CPI rose 2% year-on-year in January, the smallest increase since January 2024.Japans national CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in January, below the expected 1.60% and the previous reading of 2.10%.

S&P 500 Price Forecast — Stock Market Looking for Footing

Florala Chen

Aug 24, 2022 15:54

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In the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has gained a little bit of stability during the Tuesday trading session as we get closer to a critical support level.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In the early stages of the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has moved in a rather narrow range. Having said that, this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is practically guaranteed to make a lot of noise. In this case, I believe the trading public will be paying great heed to central bankers' pronouncements, which, of course, may sometimes result in complete pandemonium.


In this case, I believe we could have a brief rebound followed by increased selling pressure. The 200-Day EMA is located around 4185, and there is considerable resistance at the 4300 level above. It's also important to pay attention to the 50-Day EMA, which is at 4082 and climbing below; it may provide dynamic support.


I do believe that it is extremely possible that traders will look to the 50-Day EMA to salvage the market upward, regardless of whether or not this turns out to be the case. If we break it down below that, the market is probably just trying to get to the 4000 level. Anything below the 4000 mark indicates that we have once again altered our mentality and that more downside is yet to come.


One thing you can certainly bet on, in my opinion, is a lot of noisy volatility, mostly as a result of the central bankers' ranting in Wyoming. They will almost certainly underline their resolve to battle inflation, which means that monetary policies will continue to tighten throughout the globe.

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