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On September 5th, U.S. Commerce Secretary Andrew Lutnick was appointed to review transactions between the Pentagon and companies under Cerberus Capital Management to address potential conflicts of interest. According to U.S. officials, the Department of Defense has assigned Lutnick to review these transactions. Cerberus is a private equity firm founded by Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg, with significant investments in defense and national security, including several companies that have received Pentagon contracts. After joining the government, Feinberg transferred his business assets to a trust for his adult children. Reports indicate that Lutnicks review of arrangements involving Cerberus is intended to exceed existing Department of Defense ethical guidelines. However, Lutnick previously led Cantor Fitzgerald, which has had a business relationship with Cerberus for over a decade and helped manage related investment funds. Some of Cerberus defense subsidiaries recently secured Pentagon contracts, including a $10 billion, 26-year Army helicopter pilot training contract for M1 Support Services, and a $90 million defense contract for hypersonic testing company Stratolaunch. It remains unclear whether Lutnik reviewed these transactions, and the specific scope of his review.Fitch: The rating upgrade reflects the strengthening of Portugals public finances, including the expected downward trend in government debt.Barclays: Oil outflows from the Middle East are higher than in the early stages of the conflict, but the market remains in a state of shortage, and the inventory buffer is now greatly reduced.According to Al Arabiya TV: Lebanese official data shows that Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon tonight have killed three people.On September 5th, stronger-than-expected US August jobs data triggered renewed bets on a possible Federal Reserve rate hike, but Wall Street risk assets did not show significant panic. Data showed increased resilience in the job market, leading traders to raise their expectations for a rate hike at the Feds September 16th meeting. US Treasuries experienced a sell-off, the dollar strengthened, and the S&P 500 fell on Friday but still recorded a weekly gain. Unlike previous rate hikes that often triggered capital outflows, this round of bond market adjustments has not yet spread to other risk assets. Credit spreads remain low, limiting pressure on corporate bonds and stock index markets. JPMorgan Chase stated that US Treasury liquidity has deteriorated significantly, but corporate bond ETFs and stock index futures markets have not yet experienced similar tension. Market resilience mainly stems from economic growth and corporate profits, especially as AI investment continues to drive large-scale capital expenditures by technology companies. Analysts point out that the market is currently more focused on whether yields will rise rapidly than on the jobs data itself. The market focus will shift to inflation data and whether the Fed will reconsider its rate hike path due to inflationary pressures. If yields rise further rapidly, it could force investors to reduce their risk exposure.

S&P 500 Price Forecast — Stock Market Looking for Footing

Florala Chen

Aug 24, 2022 15:54

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In the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has gained a little bit of stability during the Tuesday trading session as we get closer to a critical support level.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In the early stages of the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has moved in a rather narrow range. Having said that, this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is practically guaranteed to make a lot of noise. In this case, I believe the trading public will be paying great heed to central bankers' pronouncements, which, of course, may sometimes result in complete pandemonium.


In this case, I believe we could have a brief rebound followed by increased selling pressure. The 200-Day EMA is located around 4185, and there is considerable resistance at the 4300 level above. It's also important to pay attention to the 50-Day EMA, which is at 4082 and climbing below; it may provide dynamic support.


I do believe that it is extremely possible that traders will look to the 50-Day EMA to salvage the market upward, regardless of whether or not this turns out to be the case. If we break it down below that, the market is probably just trying to get to the 4000 level. Anything below the 4000 mark indicates that we have once again altered our mentality and that more downside is yet to come.


One thing you can certainly bet on, in my opinion, is a lot of noisy volatility, mostly as a result of the central bankers' ranting in Wyoming. They will almost certainly underline their resolve to battle inflation, which means that monetary policies will continue to tighten throughout the globe.

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