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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 506.51 points, or 0.97%, at 51,493.16 on Wednesday, June 17; the S&P 500 closed down 91.22 points, or 1.21%, at 7,420.13; and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 354.69 points, or 1.34%, at 26,021.66 on Wednesday, June 17.June 18th - On Wednesday, following a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) closed down 5%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 1%, and Western Digital (WDC.O) rose 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.1%, and Li Auto (LI.O) fell 3%.June 18th – Warshs first press conference as Federal Reserve Chairman officially concluded, during which he previewed a series of reforms to be implemented at the Fed. One significant change is the establishment of several special working groups to explore more open data collection methods and study how to improve the Feds existing statistical indicator system. During the press conference, Warsh repeatedly emphasized that he would not provide any forward guidance and avoided all questions regarding the future path of interest rates. Furthermore, he did not submit his personal interest rate forecasts in this dot plot and stated that he would not comment on any price fluctuations that occurred in the market during the press conference. Overall, the core message conveyed by Warshs first press conference was: reduce policy guidance to the market, downplay pre-commitments to the interest rate path, and focus more on reforming the Feds systems, data structures, and communication framework.The market has fully priced in two Fed rate hikes by the end of the first quarter of 2027.June 18th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by July is 64.0% (91.0% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 35.1% (8.9% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 1% (0% before the decision). The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by December is 14.2% (38.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 36.4% (43.0% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 33.8% (16.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is 13.5% (2.4% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate hike is 2.1% (0.1% before the decision).

S&P 500 Price Forecast — Stock Market Looking for Footing

Florala Chen

Aug 24, 2022 15:54

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In the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has gained a little bit of stability during the Tuesday trading session as we get closer to a critical support level.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

In the early stages of the E-mini contract, the S&P 500 has moved in a rather narrow range. Having said that, this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is practically guaranteed to make a lot of noise. In this case, I believe the trading public will be paying great heed to central bankers' pronouncements, which, of course, may sometimes result in complete pandemonium.


In this case, I believe we could have a brief rebound followed by increased selling pressure. The 200-Day EMA is located around 4185, and there is considerable resistance at the 4300 level above. It's also important to pay attention to the 50-Day EMA, which is at 4082 and climbing below; it may provide dynamic support.


I do believe that it is extremely possible that traders will look to the 50-Day EMA to salvage the market upward, regardless of whether or not this turns out to be the case. If we break it down below that, the market is probably just trying to get to the 4000 level. Anything below the 4000 mark indicates that we have once again altered our mentality and that more downside is yet to come.


One thing you can certainly bet on, in my opinion, is a lot of noisy volatility, mostly as a result of the central bankers' ranting in Wyoming. They will almost certainly underline their resolve to battle inflation, which means that monetary policies will continue to tighten throughout the globe.

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