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Futures News, June 5th: Since May, silver prices have risen and then fallen, with the price trending downwards within a narrow range. As of June 4th, the domestic spot price of #1 silver was 17,711 yuan/kg, a cumulative decrease of 4.41% compared to the beginning of May. In early May, the US and Iran signaled a willingness to negotiate, coupled with Perus energy emergency decree, which raised concerns about mine output, causing silver prices to fluctuate upwards. However, with major consumer India raising import tariffs on silver, the resignation of dovish Fed member Milan, and the stalemate between the US and Iran on key issues, the market traded on interest rate hike expectations, putting downward pressure on silver. Looking ahead, the macroeconomic logic remains focused on the Feds interest rate decision and the US-Iran negotiations. Domestic inventory levels are currently high, and slightly weak consumption has failed to provide fundamental support. In the short term, attention will be focused on the US May non-farm payroll report and CPI data. It is expected that silver prices will lack a clear direction in the short term.June 5th - Thailands inflation unexpectedly slowed in May, remaining within the central banks target range, reducing pressure to implement interest rate interventions. Data released by the Commerce Ministry on Friday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.79% year-on-year in May, a slowdown from 2.89% in April. The Bank of Thailand has consistently viewed price increases as temporary and has indicated its willingness to ignore any short-term inflation spikes, stating that tightening monetary policy has had little effect on addressing supply-driven shocks. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn stated this week that the current policy rate "remains appropriate for now." The Commerce Ministry expects the inflation rate to reach 3% in June and remain above 3% in the second half of the year.On June 5th, according to Tianyancha App, Anhui Deyi Energy Technology Co., Ltd. recently underwent industrial and commercial changes. The original shareholders, Wuhu Ekotech Powertrain Co., Ltd. and Wuhu Zhenyong Enterprise Management Center (Limited Partnership), withdrew, and Wuhu Qida Power Battery System Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Chery Automobile, became a new shareholder. At the same time, the registered capital increased from RMB 1.8 billion to RMB 2.3 billion, an increase of approximately 28%.On June 5th, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on Thursday that it will maintain the current eligibility requirements for major benchmark indices such as the S&P 500, rejecting proposals to quickly include mega-cap companies like SpaceX after their IPOs. The index provider stated in its announcement that it will not shorten the current 12-month maturity period for newly listed companies, nor will it exempt existing profitability and public float requirements based on company size. This decision contradicts the broader industry shifts undertaken by its competitors Nasdaq and FTSE Russell. This outcome means that SpaceX, which is preparing for what could be the largest IPO in history, will not be eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 for at least one year after its listing. The company will also need to meet the indexs existing profitability and public float requirements. ETF analyst James Seifert said, "Im really surprised. But S&P is a market leader, and they can go against the grain."SK Hynix shares continued their decline, falling nearly 8%; Samsung Electronics shares fell 4.8%.

S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Stumbling on The Edge of a Cliff

Skylar Shaw

May 09, 2022 10:53


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The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) will be announced at 12:30 UK today, with the market expecting 391k new jobs in April, down from 431k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 percent, while average hourly earnings are expected to stay constant at 0.4 percent month over month. The US employment market is strong, and unless today's news disappoints, traders will continue to price in higher US interest rates, keeping the US dollar bought. Both John Williams and Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will talk later today, and they may provide some further insight on the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

 

The 500 chart demonstrates how technical analysis may be useful even in turbulent times. The bullish hammer candle we saw on Monday led to a big comeback until yesterday's sell-off, while the resistance zone we saw around 4,300–4,310 maintained on Wednesday and Thursday. If 4,060 holds, the S&P 500 will have a chance to rebound in the near term; otherwise, 4,035 will come into play quite rapidly. Any efforts to go higher should be met with resistance in the 4,300–4,310 range. Volatility is still at an all-time high.

 

According to retail trader statistics, 68.09 percent of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.13 to 1. The number of traders who are net-long is up 18.01 percent from yesterday and up 16.33 percent from last week, while those who are net-short is down 26.33 percent from yesterday and 14.60 percent from last week.


We usually take the other side of popular mood, and the fact that traders are net-long signals that the US 500 will continue to decline. Traders are more net-long today than they were yesterday and last week, and the combination of current mood and previous movements gives us a greater contrarian trading bias in the US 500.