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On December 23, the Conference Boards Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1 in December; the Consumer Current Conditions Index plummeted to 116.8; and the Consumer Expectations Index remained stable at 70.7, but has now been below 80 for 11 consecutive months, a threshold considered a signal of impending recession. Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, stated, "Despite an upward revision to Novembers data due to the end of the government shutdown, consumer confidence declined again in December, well below the peak in January. Four of the five components of the overall index declined, with one at a level indicating significant weakness." Peterson also noted that the economic factors consumers cited in their open-ended responses remained primarily focused on prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics. However, the proportion of responses mentioning immigration, war, and personal finances increased in December. These responses continued to lean pessimistic, but to a lesser degree than in November, possibly due to reduced negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, and a rebound in positive responses regarding interest rates.The Richmond Fed Services Earnings Index for December was -6, compared to -4 previously.The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index for December was 70.7, down from 63.2 in December.The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index for December was -11, compared to -14 previously.The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December was -7, compared to a forecast of -10 and a previous reading of -15.

S&P 500 Continues to Threaten a Breakout

Alice Wang

Jul 20, 2022 14:50

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As we continue to pose a serious danger of a large breakthrough, the S&P 500 has surged pretty considerably throughout Tuesday's trading session.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued loud behavior, the S&P 500 has shown its bullishness throughout Tuesday's trading session. Given that the 3900 region runs all the way to 3950, this market will likely continue to be highly loud. Additionally, the 50 Day EMA is also nearing this region, and earnings season is already underway. Or, to put it another way, it's a jumble of issues waiting to happen.


Short-sellers will almost certainly seize on signs of tiredness because, to be honest, the economics does not indicate that this market should rise. Additionally, there are significant issues with liquidity, so you must pay great attention to it as well. Even if the economy does have some impact on the stock market, it really really comes down to liquidity, thus the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy will also have some negative effects.


Wall Street has been pretending for a while now that the US economy has improved, so when it genuinely struggles, it should not come as a major surprise that they are trying to drive the market higher. Keep in mind that Wall Street and the economy are unrelated in any way. Having said that, we have a chance to advance all the way to the 4200 level if we do break over the 4000 level. I believe the trend has shifted above that point.


Alternately, if we go below the 3700 level, it's likely that we will reach the 3640 level, which previously served as a support zone.

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