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September 3 – The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in July to its highest level since early 2025, driven by a surge in imports of computers and other technology equipment. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday showed that the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened by 24.4% in July from the previous month to $88.6 billion, compared to the median economist forecast of $90.2 billion. Imports rose 2.8%, while exports fell 2.1%. The report showed that imports of capital goods (including computers and accessories, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment, but excluding automobiles) surged 11.4%, the largest increase since 1993. The rapid growth in technology imports reflects a surge in investment in artificial intelligence, a key driver of U.S. economic growth. Meanwhile, the trade deficit has fluctuated in recent months as the war with Iran has boosted global demand for U.S. petroleum products, while U.S. companies have struggled to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions.
Following a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 4 basis points to 4.754%.
Markets reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike after Fed Governor Waller said inflation had shown signs of improvement.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Undetermined revisions to the Commerce Department’s estimates of non-market prices could reduce the 12-month PCE by a few tenths of a percentage point.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Overall PCE and core PCE are not the best indicators for judging the direction of inflation.