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On September 4th, Allianz Chief Advisor El-Erian stated that the latest US jobs report shows that both demand and supply in the labor market far exceeded expectations. Specifically: In terms of job creation, non-farm payrolls surged to 162,000 from an upward revision of 21,000, approximately three times the market consensus expectation. On the labor supply side, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.6% from 61.4%, exceeding expectations and reaching its highest level in nearly a year. Other key indicators included an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings, in line with expectations. Overall, these indicators suggest that the US labor market remains strong, with demand remaining robust and supply stabilizing.September 4th - Analyst Jessica Coacci points out that in a labor market where both hiring and layoffs are at low levels, some Americans find it difficult to re-enter the job market once they lose their jobs. Data from Fridays employment reports household survey showed that 27% of the unemployed have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This percentage has remained relatively stable over the past year or so.On September 4th, analyst Ben Casselman pointed out regarding the US August non-farm payroll data that the labor force participation rate (the proportion of people aged 25 to 54 who are employed or actively seeking employment) jumped to its highest level in 20 years last year, but fell sharply in June this year. Initially, the decline in June seemed like an isolated incident, but the lack of a rebound in July and August suggests that this decline may be a real trend. The rate is still at a fairly high level, higher than before the pandemic, but its performance is no longer as impressive as before.September 4th - Stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data for August fueled market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month, causing U.S. stock index futures to fall. Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, stated, "Even the most ardent doves will find it difficult to justify keeping rates unchanged from the August jobs report. The significant increase in nonfarm payrolls was driven by a broadly strong performance in the non-healthcare private sector, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged despite a sharp rebound in the labor force participation rate." S&P 500 futures fell 17.5 points during the session.White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Artificial intelligence data centers are creating new jobs in utilities.

Oil Prices Climb As The EU Bans Most Russian Oil Imports

Charlie Brooks

May 31, 2022 11:42

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Oil prices increased on Tuesday as the European Union (EU) agreed to reduce its oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022, fueling fears of a tightening market already stressed for supply due to rising demand ahead of the peak summer driving season in the United States and Europe.


At 00:54 GMT, Brent crude futures for July, whose contract expires on Tuesday, rose 33 cents to $122.50 a barrel. The more popular August contract increased 33 cents to $117.93.


Futures contracts for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were trading at $117.31 a barrel, an increase of $2.24 from Friday's closing. Due to a U.S. holiday, there was no settlement on Monday.


European Union leaders agreed in principle to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90 percent by the end of 2022, breaking a stalemate with Hungary over the bloc's heaviest sanction against Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine three months ago.


Due to the fact that the market has already factored in the supply limits, according to some analysts, oil price improvements may be modest.


SPI Asset Management Managing Partner Stephen Innes told Reuters that the market had "already factored in EU self-sanction and much less Russian oil moving to Europe this year"


Innes continued, "I believe the market is pricing in some more Asia demand via China; nevertheless, the glaring issues are the soaring gasoline prices at the pump, which could lead to some demand destruction over the driving season."


Following the removal of COVID-19 restrictions, China's demand is anticipated to increase. Shanghai has announced the end of its two-month lockdown and will permit the vast majority of residents in China's largest metropolis to leave their homes and drive cars beginning Wednesday.


On the production side, OPEC+ is expected to adhere to its agreement from last year at its meeting on Thursday, with a moderate July output rise of 432,000 barrels per day, according to six sources from OPEC+. This is in response to Western calls for a more rapid increase to curb skyrocketing prices.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, argue that the oil market is in equilibrium and that recent price increases are unrelated to underlying fundamentals.


In 2022, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic reached their highest level in more than a decade and are up more than 55 percent so far in 2022.

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