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On June 25th, Westpac stated that it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to be less likely to raise interest rates as sharply as initially anticipated. This is because an early resolution to the Iranian conflict implies a weaker inflation outlook and an earlier economic recovery. Westpac anticipates the RBNZ will begin raising rates in September, but will only raise them once more for the remainder of the year. This means the official cash rate will peak at 4.0% by the end of 2027, before falling back to a neutral level of 3.75% by the end of 2028. Previously, Westpac had predicted the rate could reach as high as 4.25%. Westpac wrote, "Our core view suggests that the RBNZ will raise rates one less time this year than our most recent forecast, but one more time than pre-conflict projections."The yield on Japans 20-year government bonds fell 1.5 basis points to 3.55%.The bid-to-cover ratio for Japans 20-year government bond auction was 2.97, the lowest level since May 2025, compared to 4.01 in May.June 25th - The 4th China International Blockchain Expo (CIE) was held in Beijing from June 22nd to 26th. It is reported that Japan had the largest number of delegations from Asian countries at this years CIE. Ten Japanese economic delegations visited China, including representatives from the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) and the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Keidanren is Japans largest and most authoritative comprehensive economic organization, with core members encompassing leading companies across almost all sectors. The Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry is one of Japans largest national business organizations. The Kansai Economic Federation represents the Kansai region, Japans second-largest economic zone. These ten organizations broadly cover all aspects of Japans social enterprise network.June 25 – The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held its regular June press conference today (June 25). Officials stated that my country has entered its main flood season, and in response to the severe situation of potentially large fluctuations in water quality during this period, the Ministry has acted swiftly and made arrangements. Regarding abnormal water quality fluctuations during the flood season, the Ministry will promptly conduct analysis and consultations, providing point-to-point guidance to local authorities to identify the causes and accelerate rectification. Simultaneously, it will promote joint risk assessment and collaborative countermeasures between upstream and downstream areas, as well as between left and right banks of river basins, to avoid situations where "upstream pollution leads to downstream liability" or "left-bank remediation leads to right-bank relapse," thus forming a closed-loop management system for problem assignment, rectification implementation, and follow-up evaluation.

Markets Gripped by Recession Fears, US CPI in Focus

Skylar Shaw

Jul 13, 2022 16:21

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Tuesday saw a sea of red on the Asian stock market as risk appetite was stifled by concerns about the recession and a resurgent Covid-19 outbreak in China.

 

Prior to the US inflation data and earnings season, Wall Street's major indexes suffered overnight as investors fled to safety. Europe's energy crisis and increased caution in front of important economic data and bank profits are anticipated to cause markets to start lower there.


The dollar index (DXY) reached its greatest levels since 2002 in the currency markets, flexing its safe-haven capabilities. In the meanwhile, prices reached 1.0004 for the first time since December 2002 this morning, bringing the EUR/USD parity fantasy that much closer to reality. When it comes to commodities, gold is still down and unpopular, while demand worries have caused oil prices to decline.


The unease and gloom that permeate the financial markets may drive up the dollar more while driving down stock prices. The next US CPI data on Wednesday may cause a commotion since markets are still very volatile and sensitive to anything related to inflation.


Consumer confidence in Australia fell for the eighth consecutive month in July according to statistics.


Amid rising inflation, impending rises, and global unease, business confidence also fell short of expectations. Later this morning, the ZEW economic confidence poll for Germany will be released. A negative assessment might exacerbate the euro's problems and further devalue the single currency.

The US inflation data is what's important.


Investors are eagerly awaiting the publication of the US inflation data on Wednesday to see if prices are increasing once again or whether we have reached a high. Inflation is predicted to increase 8.8 percent year-over-year in June compared to 8.6 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg survey.

If predictions come true, consumer prices will have risen at the quickest rate since December 1981 when they increased by 8.9 percent. Such a scenario is likely to support market predictions of more aggressive Fed rate rises and eventually give dollar bulls new energy.


On Thursday, it could be a good idea to pay attention to the weekly unemployment claims report in addition to the US inflation statistics. There will also be a flurry of important announcements at the end of the week, including the most recent retail sales, industrial output, and consumer sentiment, all of which will shed light on the state of the US economy.

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