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On October 25th, local time, the second round of ceasefire talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan began in Istanbul, Turkey. The talks were hosted by Turkey and held at an Istanbul hotel. The Pakistani delegation included the militarys director of operations and security and intelligence officials. The Afghan delegation was led by Deputy Interior Minister Rahmatullah Najeeb.On October 25th, Belgorod Oblast Governor Ilya Gladkov announced that Ukrainian armed forces had damaged the Belgorod Reservoir Dam. He stated that Ukrainian forces might attempt to attack and destroy the dam again. If this were to happen, several streets in riverbanks and settlements near Kharkiv Oblast would be flooded, impacting the lives of approximately 1,000 residents. Gladkov stated that local authorities have advised residents at risk of flooding to move to temporary relocation sites. The Ukrainian side has not yet responded to this request.On October 25th, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Villeroy warned lawmakers debating the 2026 budget that the deficit must not exceed 4.8% of economic output to ensure France can cope with its growing debt burden. The French National Assembly is currently debating a draft budget that targets 4.7% GDP growth, but Prime Minister Jean-Claude Le Cornu has said the ultimate target should be within 5%, and he is seeking a compromise with opposition lawmakers. "It is absolutely necessary to keep the deficit below 3% between now and 2029, which would imply a maximum deficit of 4.8% next year," Villeroy de Villeroy said in an interview with La Croix. He also stated that France faces the risk of "progressive suffocation" from debt and that additional deficit spending will fail to stimulate economic growth. According to calculations by the Bank of France, if debt uncertainty is reduced, a 1% reduction in the household savings rate would boost economic growth by 0.4%. However, Villeroy de Villeroy stated that the French economy has strong momentum this year and growth will be "at least" as strong as the Banks forecast of 0.7%.On October 25th, the U.S. federal government shutdown entered its 24th day. More and more federal employees forced to take unpaid leave are facing the dilemma of not being able to pay their bills or mortgages, and many are forced to queue up at food banks for assistance. Jacobs, president of the local CDC union, stated that both parties are using the livelihoods of federal employees as bargaining chips in political negotiations, and that the current chaotic situation is unprecedented.On October 25, Lizhong Group responded to investors on an interactive platform, saying that the second phase of the companys project to produce 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheels annually in Mexico, with an output of 1.8 million wheels, has now been put into initial production. The company is actively promoting the running-in of the production line and the release of production capacity, striving to achieve the goal of full production and sales as soon as possible.

Gold price forecast: The XAU/USD rebounds on reports of a lower US dollar and a return to risk-on

Daniel Rogers

Aug 12, 2022 11:51

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Gold recovers from an intraday drop to the $1,784–$1,783 range and reaches a new daily high during the early North American session. But bulls are having trouble capitalizing on the trend and pushing XAU/USD back above $1,800.

 

Gold prices in dollars is supported by the fact that the US dollar is having a hard time finding buyers and is still very close to its lowest level since late June. Investors cut their wagers on a 75 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the September policy meeting after US consumer inflation data reported on Wednesday came in lower than expected. The dollar is further weakened, and the non-yielding yellow metal gains in value, as a result of this and a new leg down in US Treasury bond yields.

 

For the time being at least, the risk-on sentiment restrains additional advances for the safe-haven gold. Inflation fears persist, but there are some indicators that the rate of increase may have plateaued. This has led to calls for the US central bank to ease up on its policy tightening. This coming Thursday's announcement of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will further reinforce market expectations and bolster investor confidence. The commodity is facing a headwind due to the robust performance of the equity markets.

 

Gold's potential gains could be limited by the fact that the Federal Reserve is widely predicted to raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points in September. To prepare for any additional appreciating rise, it would be advisable to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $1,808 level, a five-week high set on Wednesday. However, the intraday rebound from the 50-day SMA's solid support floor favors optimistic traders and indicates that any significant retreat may still be considered as a buying opportunity.