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March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”March 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Wednesday during a parliamentary committee meeting, in response to questions from lawmakers, that the Japanese government has not ruled out the possibility of releasing national oil reserves "on its own initiative," rather than as part of a coordinated action. He added, "We will take all possible measures to ensure a stable energy supply." As of the end of December, Japans total oil reserves were sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs for 254 days, of which 146 days worth were held by the government, 101 days worth were held by the private sector, and the remainder were stored jointly with oil-producing countries.Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Irans regional aggression.Piper Jaffray: Lowered its target price for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $240 to $210.According to Israeli media reports, Iran launched two missiles at Israel.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD struggles above $2,000 as additional Fed rate increases appear inevitable

Daniel Rogers

Apr 17, 2023 13:44

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During the Asian session, the gold price (XAU / USD) appears vulnerable above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. Following a four-day low of $1,992.50, the precious metal has exhibited a recovery trend. However, the recovery appears precarious as bullish wagers on the US Dollar Index (DXY) limit the upside.

 

As the probability of a consecutive 25 basis point (bp) rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) is exceedingly high, the USD Index seeks to extend its recovery above the immediate resistance of 101.75. According to the CME Fedwatch instrument, the likelihood of a rate rise is nearly 80%.

 

In the meantime, S&P500 futures posted significant gains early on Monday, following a moderate decline on Friday. Quarterly earnings season is anticipated to keep US equities stock-specific. As a result of the precipitous drop in petroleum prices in March, manufacturing and oil-dependent businesses could experience a reasonable earnings rebound.

 

The demand for U.S. government bonds has decreased considerably in response to rising wagers on additional Fed policy restrictions. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic stated that with one more quarter-point increase in interest rates, the Fed can conclude its tightening cycle with some assurance that inflation will gradually revert to its 2% objective.