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On May 9th, Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on social media that Japan may send government officials to Russia as early as the end of May to maintain communication channels and provide support to its companies still operating in Russia. METI stated that it is necessary to protect the assets of Japanese companies remaining in Russia, and to support these efforts, the Japanese government has been maintaining government-level communication with Russia and has made relevant requests.May 9th - As the war with Iran disrupts oil transport in the Persian Gulf, global oil inventories are being depleted at a record rate, eroding the buffers originally intended to withstand supply shocks. The rapid shrinking of inventories means the risk of more extreme price spikes and supply shortages is looming. With the Strait of Hormuz nearing closure for two months, governments and industries have fewer options to cope with a supply loss of over 1 billion barrels. The sharp depletion of inventories also means that even after the conflict ends, the market will remain vulnerable to future supply disruptions for a longer period. Morgan Stanley estimates that global oil inventories fell by an average of about 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1st and April 25th, far exceeding previous peaks in quarterly inventory declines compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crude oil accounted for nearly 60% of the decline, with the remainder being refined products. Crucially, the oil system also needs to set a minimum inventory level. Natasha Kaneva, global head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase, stated that this means that the untouchable safety stock will be reached before inventories truly bottom out.On May 9th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) clarified that rumors circulating online claiming "new energy vehicle companies were summoned for talks and placed under investigation for battery locking issues" are false. A CAAM representative stated that the claims circulating online regarding "eight new energy vehicle companies being summoned for talks due to battery locking issues" and "three companies being placed under investigation" lack official source and are seriously inconsistent with the facts. All industry regulatory updates and enforcement measures should be based on official information from the relevant authorities. Furthermore, CAAM hopes that new energy vehicle companies will optimize their battery management systems, maintain transparency, protect consumers right to know and choose, establish efficient after-sales communication channels, actively handle complaints and disputes related to battery locking, and safeguard their brand reputation through honest business practices.On May 9, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced via social media that he had spoken with European Council President Costa, exchanging views on Ukraines cooperation with Europe and its integration into European integration. Zelenskyy stated that he and Costa focused on joint efforts to further Ukraines integration into Europe, clarifying Ukraines commitment to becoming a full member of the EU and that preparations are underway for initiating negotiations and subsequent decisions.On May 9th, the chairman of the Iranian Parliaments Energy Committee stated that production continues uninterrupted at multiple oil fields across the country. He asserted that the actions of adversaries targeting Iranian oil tankers are entirely illegal, and that pressure on Iranian oil exports has been ineffective. There are currently no official reports of an oil spill near Kharg Island. Earlier reports indicated that satellite images suggested a large-scale oil spill near Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, with pollution covering tens of square kilometers of sea surface.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD struggles above $2,000 as additional Fed rate increases appear inevitable

Daniel Rogers

Apr 17, 2023 13:44

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During the Asian session, the gold price (XAU / USD) appears vulnerable above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. Following a four-day low of $1,992.50, the precious metal has exhibited a recovery trend. However, the recovery appears precarious as bullish wagers on the US Dollar Index (DXY) limit the upside.

 

As the probability of a consecutive 25 basis point (bp) rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) is exceedingly high, the USD Index seeks to extend its recovery above the immediate resistance of 101.75. According to the CME Fedwatch instrument, the likelihood of a rate rise is nearly 80%.

 

In the meantime, S&P500 futures posted significant gains early on Monday, following a moderate decline on Friday. Quarterly earnings season is anticipated to keep US equities stock-specific. As a result of the precipitous drop in petroleum prices in March, manufacturing and oil-dependent businesses could experience a reasonable earnings rebound.

 

The demand for U.S. government bonds has decreased considerably in response to rising wagers on additional Fed policy restrictions. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic stated that with one more quarter-point increase in interest rates, the Fed can conclude its tightening cycle with some assurance that inflation will gradually revert to its 2% objective.