EUR/USD 1.15564
0.308%
Gold 4146.42
0.283%
Oil 57.643
-2.003%
USD/JPY 156.174
-0.469%
GBP/USD 1.31529
0.375%
GBP/JPY 205.417
-0.089%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in September, taking a breather after a series of strong gains. Data released Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month, compared with an unrevised 0.6% increase in August. Economists surveyed had predicted a 0.4% increase for the month. Sales had accelerated in previous months, partly due to consumers rushing to buy electric vehicles before the tax credit expired at the end of September. The slowdown is unlikely to change economists expectations of a rebound in consumer spending in the third quarter. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services fell 0.1% in September, while Augusts figures were revised down to a 0.6% increase. These so-called core retail sales figures best align with the consumer spending component of GDP. However, current consumption is primarily driven by high-income households, while many low- and middle-income consumers are facing rising costs—partly due to import tariffs—creating what economists call a K-shaped economy.Iraqs State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) reported that Iraqs total oil exports in October amounted to 110.9 million barrels.On November 25th, Baidu announced the establishment of new technology research and development organizations. A new Basic Model R&D Department has been established, responsible for developing highly intelligent and scalable general-purpose AI models, headed by Wu Tian. A new Application Model R&D Department has also been established, responsible for optimizing and exploring specialized models needed for business application scenarios, headed by Jia Lei. Wang Haifeng continues to serve as CTO, Chairman of TSC, and Dean of Baidu Research Institute. All departments report to Baidu CEO Robin Li.U.S. Treasury bonds continued their upward trend after the release of retail sales and PPI data.The US core PPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in September, below the expected 2.7% and the previous reading of 2.80%.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair recovers towards the $1,930 barrier as the US Dollar retreats amid contradictory signals

Daniel Rogers

Jan 19, 2023 15:07

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains bids to trim yesterday's losses, breaking a three-day downtrend, as the US Dollar struggles to defend late Wednesday's corrective bounce off the lowest level since May 31, 2022. Recent remarks by Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) President Lorie Logan could provide more support for the XAU/USD recovery.

 

In her maiden statement as a Fed representative, Fed's Logan advocated for a slower rate hike pace but also acknowledged the possibility of a higher stopping point, whereas the majority of Fed policymakers appeared bullish on Wednesday.

 

Previously, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, stated that US interest rates must increase further to reduce inflationary pressures. In the same vein, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, lauded the Fed's efforts to manage inflation. In addition, the president of the Kansas City Fed, Esther George, stated that the central bank must restore price stability, "which includes reverting to 2% inflation."

 

Notably, the disappointing US data allowed gold markets to restore upward momentum and challenge the Fed hawks. US Retail Sales had a 1.1% MoM decline in December, compared to market predictions of -0.8% and prior readings of -1.0%. This decline was the largest in a year (revised). On the same note, the Producer Price Index plummeted to its lowest level in six months with a -0.5% MoM figure, compared to a -0.1% MoM figure that was anticipated and a 0.2% MoM result from the previous month (revised).

 

In addition, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unexpected inaction and diminishing fears of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) aggressive monetary policy activities weighed on United States Treasury bond yields and the Gold price on Wednesday. In spite of the BOJ's inaction on monetary policy and interest rates, 10-year US Treasury bond yields reached their lowest level in four months as of press time, hovering around 3.37 percent.

 

Analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipated greater China development and preferred chances for a rise in energy demand from the dragon kingdom. However, elsewhere, contradictory concerns about China appeared to have hampered Gold purchases. In recent times, though, worries about the US-China friction have outweighed optimism. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He met in Germany on Wednesday, which initially bolstered risk appetite with the BOJ's inactivity. However, the diplomats' mention of the disagreements sparked market fears of a new round of friction between the United States and China. Prior to this, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) stated that Beijing'should be cautious' as the United States and Taiwan seek stronger economic ties.

 

In light of these performances, markets remain cautiously hopeful on Thursday, resulting in a Gold price recovery. Mildly bid US stock futures, a weakening US Dollar Index (DXY), and declining US Treasury bond yields could be indicative of market sentiment.


Suggestion