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On May 6, Goldman Sachs published a research report stating that COSCO Shipping Ports (01199.HK)s first-quarter net profit increased by 33% year-on-year and fell by 4% quarter-on-quarter, which was better than expected, mainly driven by the groups overseas performance. The bank raised the groups European port throughput forecast and raised its net profit forecast for 2025 to 27 by 1 to 2%. After adjusting the market value of listed assets, the target price was lowered from HK$5.4 to HK$5.3, and the buy rating was continued.May 6, MFS Investment Management chief economist and portfolio manager Weissman said in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may point out at this weeks meeting that the U.S. Treasury market is functioning normally after a brief turmoil. Powell may also point out that liquidity tools are available if market conditions permit. In addition, as bank reserve balances continue to decline, some may advocate a complete end to quantitative tightening. But Weissman said that given that the Fed has just slowed the pace of quantitative easing, Powell is unlikely to feel the need to take more action in this area in the near future.EU officials said the EU will publish its plan on Tuesday, with proposals to follow in June.Switzerlands seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in April was 2.8%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 2.80%.On May 6, Weissman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management, said in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will almost certainly express a wait-and-see attitude at this weeks meeting. The confusion of US tariff policy makes the future macroeconomic outlook particularly difficult to predict. The Fed will also note that tariff-induced inflation, even if theoretically regarded as temporary, may produce more persistent actual inflation. Therefore, if there is no clear signal that the economy is weakening substantially, the Fed will be reluctant to ease policy. In other words, in the absence of actual economic deterioration, the Fed may postpone interest rate cuts if necessary.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovery appears elusive amid conflicting Fed and geopolitical worries

Daniel Rogers

Feb 23, 2023 14:53

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.12.51_1024x576.png

 

Early on Thursday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) gains bids to reduce weekly losses near $1,827. As a result, the yellow metal posts its first daily gain in four days as the US dollar declines.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the weekly high, down 0.16% intraday to 104.35, as US Treasury bond yields lack momentum during Japan's holidays. Bond coupon retracement from the multi-day high has also contributed to the DXY's recent loss of ground. However, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields halted a two-day uptrend the previous day before settling at 3.92 and 4.72 basis points, respectively.

 

According to the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), both of these indices have retreated from their most recent peaks, which may be the cause of the movements.

 

After the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes revealed that policymakers discussed slowing the rate rise trajectory if necessary, the inflation expectations received significant attention. However, the widespread discussion on the need for additional rate increases and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams challenge the Fed's dovish bias.

 

Joseph Biden, the president of the United States, may also be to blame for the recent mildly optimistic sentiment and the recent correction in the Gold price. According to recent remarks by US President Joseph Biden, he believes that his Russian counterpart is not prepared to use nuclear weapons by abandoning an international treaty. However, the fears surrounding the Ukraine-Russia conflict are far from dissipating, with the most recent round of negotiations between the West and China exacerbating the situation. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported recently that the United States is considering releasing intelligence on China's prospective arms transfer to Russia. Previously, China-Russia relations appeared to have exacerbated geopolitical tensions, as the United States firmly criticized such moves and favored a rush towards risk avoidance.

 

S&P 500 Futures rebounded from the monthly low amid these trades to post modest gains near 4,020.

 

Prior to Friday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, geopolitical headlines and secondary data from the United States will be crucial for generating new momentum.


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