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On August 13th, SMM learned that the A100 series GPUs have entered the "leasing futures" trading format for the first time. The A series represents the first two generations of NVIDIA server GPUs, and previously, the market was primarily based on spot trading and long-term leasing agreements. Leasing futures allow buyers and sellers to lock in the supply and price of computing power at a future point in time, representing a new business model in the industry. SMM believes that the emergence of leasing futures signifies the evolution of computing power leasing towards commodity pricing, and that price discovery and risk hedging functions are expected to gradually improve.On August 13, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan." The conference introduced that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will further strengthen ecological supervision and strive to build a more precise and efficient modern ecological supervision system. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will focus on three aspects: "Systematization" of ecological status assessment: Systematically conduct multi-scale ecological status assessments at the national, key regional, nature reserve, and ecological protection red line levels to comprehensively grasp the ecological baseline and changing trends, and verify the effectiveness of ecological protection and restoration work. "Precision" in the discovery and handling of ecological damage: Continuously optimize satellite imagery monitoring to improve the accuracy of discovering ecological damage. Launch the "Green Shield" campaign to severely punish all kinds of illegal and irregular ecological damage. Improve the graded judgment system for ecological damage incidents, clarify the standards, work processes, and handling requirements for judgment, and achieve standardized management throughout the entire process. "Digitalization" of ecological monitoring and supervision: Deepen the application of new technologies such as satellite remote sensing, AI image interpretation, environmental DNA, voiceprint recognition, large-scale models, and intelligent agents, and promote the iterative upgrading of the national ecological protection and restoration supervision platform. We will continue to optimize the layout of comprehensive ecological quality monitoring stations and sample plots to enhance our monitoring capabilities for ecological quality and biodiversity. We will leverage technology to empower ecological supervision, making it more precise, efficient, and intelligent.August 13th - This week, the performance of major Australian banks reflected the extent of the sluggish Australian property market, leading to a decline in bank share prices and highlighting pressure on profitability. Since the governments May budget paved the way for the removal of tax breaks for property investors, mortgage applications at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac, and ANZ Group have fallen by at least 12%. This followed earlier this years rise in borrowing costs, which dampened demand, and house prices in major cities like Sydney and Melbourne began to decline. Matt Comyn, CEO of Commonwealth Bank, Australias largest bank, stated that the bank has not yet seen this deteriorating sentiment spread further to household spending and overall economic activity. However, with the Middle East conflict pushing up inflation and some businesses remaining cautious, housing credit growth is expected to slow further next year.August 13th - The Pinglu Canal is nearing full navigation. A key project of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, the Pinglu Canal is the first canal project connecting the Yangtze River and the sea built since the founding of the Peoples Republic of China. The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has consistently prioritized ensuring the timely, safe, and high-quality completion and opening of the canal by September, coordinating efforts at a high level and pushing forward with all its might. A special working group has been established to implement a list-based, meticulous, and closed-loop management system for tasks such as project completion and operational preparations, with weekly scheduling to ensure that all tasks are carried out in a coordinated manner and achieve tangible results. Systematic measures have been deployed to achieve the goal of "water in the canal, boats on the water, goods on the boats, and goods flowing in all directions."On August 13th, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Implementing the Several Measures on Further Promoting the Development of Private Investment". The plan mentions providing computing power subsidies in accordance with laws and regulations to support private enterprises in renting intelligent computing resources for large-scale model research, training, and application. It also encourages universities, research institutions, and state-owned enterprises to use data storage and computing power resources built by various business entities, including private enterprises. The plan includes publishing and dynamically updating a public data open list to support private enterprises in the in-depth development and scenario-based utilization of specific public data. It promotes the issuance of "computing power vouchers," "model vouchers," and "corpus vouchers" to reduce the cost of using digital elements such as public data, computing power, models, and corpora. The plan also aims to cultivate benchmark enterprises and platform enterprises for urban digital transformation and guide private enterprises to participate in the construction and scenario operation of digital transformation projects in transportation, logistics, and public services. Finally, it encourages private enterprises to build demonstration projects for new infrastructure such as blockchain applications and large-scale robot applications.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Consolidates Below Critical Support

Larissa Barlow

Apr 13, 2022 10:22

  • The gold market is reversing some of Tuesday's positive impetus.

  • Despite the Core CPI shortfall, the US dollar remains strong.

  • Ukraine's geopolitical danger is bolstering gold, and Putin is ratcheting up the pressure.

 

The gold price surged on Tuesday and is consolidating in early Asian markets on Wednesday, following another sharp increase in US inflation announced in the early hours of New York trading. The XAU/USD currency pair is now trading at $1,963.03, down 0.18 percent from a top of $1,968.06 to a low of $1,962.95.

 

Core CPI missed projections, implying that the Federal Reserve may not be in as much of a rush as the market has implied. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased by just 0.3 percent, below estimates of 0.5 percent and marking the weakest gain since September.

 

However, the US dollar rallied strongly again against the backdrop of falling US shares, reversing the relief bounce as money markets continue to price in a hawkish Fed. On Tuesday, the US Treasury's 10-year auction reached a high yield of 2.72 percent, up from the previous month's high of 1.92 percent. With inflation expectations staying largely stable, if the 10-year yield continues to rise beyond this week's 2.836 percent highs, it will test the October 2018 high above 3.26 percent.

 

Fed officials are likely to maintain their hawkish stance. In aggregate, this data is unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's near-term assessment of the need for rate hikes. "Fed governor Brainard (governors always vote) reaffirmed the FOMC's priority of containing inflation," a Westpac analyst explained. "She anticipates some tightening of financial conditions to assist temper demand, along with some loosening of supply limitations, all of which will contribute to lower inflation. She lauded the March CPI report's reduction in core goods prices, but cautioned against putting too much faith in a single piece of data."

 

As a result, a 50 basis point boost next month is expected to put the US dollar on pace for a March 2020 high near 103 as assessed by the DXY. It has already printed a new daily cycle high of 100.333.

 

Meanwhile, gold continues to benefit from elevated geopolitical threats, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has ratcheted up.

 

The US is expected to announce an additional $750 million in arms for Ukraine.

 

Putin stated on Tuesday that peace negotiations with Ukraine had reached a stalemate. Rather than that, Putin pledged that Russia will accomplish all of its "noble" objectives in Ukraine. "We have once again found ourselves in a dead-end scenario," Putin said during a news conference during a visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome 3,450 miles (5,550 kilometers) east of Moscow.

 

"We have no intention of remaining isolated," Putin stressed. "Isolating someone severely in the modern world - let alone a country the size of Russia - is impossible."

 

This should help to keep gold prices stable in 2022.

Technical Analysis of Gold

Since mid-March, the gold price has been range-trading, and if this is accumulating the 2022 surge, the price may now be ripe for a positive continuation, as indicated by the daily chart:

 

image.png 

 

We have witnessed an effort to break out, but naturally, a retreat is coming, and it is now a matter of how far the bullish impulse can be mitigated before bulls re-enter. However, if the US currency remains strong, $1,930 may come under renewed pressure, and if it does, the near-term possibilities for a move higher will be substantially diminished.

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