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On September 10th, four sources within the Yemeni government forces stated that the Houthi rebels are close to gaining complete control of coastal cities along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the historic port cities of Mocha and Dhubab. The group is currently pushing for control of the entire Red Sea coast of Yemen. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, also known as the "Gate of Tears," is a key target for the Houthis. If this narrow waterway is blocked, the main shipping routes for Gulf oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia, will be disrupted, following Irans de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The yield on German 30-year government bonds rose to 3.8981%, the highest level since April 2011, up 2 basis points.Pakistan stated on Thursday that, according to the Mecca Agreement, there are currently no discussions regarding Islamabads military response to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, but added that Pakistan will act "when the time is right." When asked at a weekly media briefing about Islamabads plans to fulfill its obligations under the joint defense agreement signed with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Sajjad Haider Khan said, "There are no discussions on such matters at present… When the time is right, (we) will act in accordance with the agreement." The joint defense agreement, signed last month, stipulates that an armed attack on any of the three countries will be considered an attack on all three. This issue arises after Houthi attacks on Saudi cities and energy infrastructure this week, which, as of Thursday, have become a second front in the Middle East. Reuters reported that Islamabad has warned Iran to restrain its Houthi allies in Yemen after the Houthis intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, which is also mediating the US-Iran conflict, condemned the attacks but did not elaborate on how it might respond under the terms of the defense agreement.Statistics South Africa: South African gold production fell 7.4% year-on-year in July, total mining output fell 7.5% year-on-year, and platinum group metals production fell 13.5% year-on-year.On September 10th, according to an analysis by The Jerusalem Post, the Houthi rebels seized control of the Red Sea coastal city of Muha on Thursday. This Houthi advance is not surprising. Although the Houthis have suffered setbacks on other fronts, this offensive appears poised to have broader implications for the entire region. Located at the northern end of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, control of Muha could mean that the Iranian-backed Houthis are one step closer to closing the strait. This would give Iran greater influence in regional affairs, despite its recent apparent setbacks on several fronts. The Houthi threat could exacerbate global security uncertainty and continue to disrupt energy markets. On September 9th, Trump stated that he expected the US-Iran conflict to gradually de-escalate after the US midterm elections, and that international oil prices were expected to fall accordingly. However, the fighting in Muha could change his assessment. In conclusion, the Yemeni government forces setbacks in Muha demonstrate that this long-neglected, relatively low-intensity conflict in Yemen still has the potential to reshape the entire regional landscape.

GBP/USD Traders Prepare for the Non-Farm Payroll, the Straw That Will Break the Camel's Back

Daniel Rogers

May 06, 2022 09:58

The pound is steady against the US dollar at 1.2365 but remains in extremely negative territory after collapsing below critical daily support on Thursday. GBP/USD plummeted from a high of 1.2634 to a low of 1.2325 as a result of the Bank of England's stern warnings, weak global economic statistics, and the likelihood of an aggressive Federal Reserve.

 

The Bank of England increased rates by 25 basis points, but "surprisingly, the BoE now forecasts inflation at 10.25 percent year on year in Q4 this year, up from 5.75 percent previously, due to higher power costs," analysts at ANZ Bank stated.

 

"In a particularly evocative illustration of a recurring global phenomenon, inflation is creating a "real income shock" - with average earnings growth falling short of inflation, real personal consumption would ultimately decline dramatically."

 

"In reality, the Bank of England forecasts that all components of domestic demand will slow this year and into next."

 

Against a backdrop of deteriorating Chinese PMIs and Germany's factory orders falling a massive 4.7 percent in March, compared to the -1.1 percent forecast, the US dollar thrived in anticipation of inflows to the US economy, which has performed better than other developed economies.

With an eye on the NFP

Thus, the Nonfarm Payrolls report becomes a crucial event. For example, ANZ Bank noted that "although the Fed is not considering a 75 basis point rate hike at the moment, that guidance is predicated on forecasts that the trend growth in monthly nonfarm payrolls will moderate and core inflation will stabilize."

 

However, there are no promises that will be the case. The demand for labor in the United States remains quite robust, and inflation in core services continues to rise gradually. Thus, tomorrow night's nonfarm payroll and employment figures are critical."

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