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On September 17th, Robert Sorkin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, stated that the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled that the Fed could implement three rate hikes, or even more if necessary, with just a slight push. This rate hike was hawkish, signaling another rate hike this year. Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted forecasts, eight expect three rate hikes in this cycle by the end of 2027. In a report, Sorkin noted that Fed Chairman Warshs mention of the Fed "withdrawing some easing measures" suggested that he and other participants viewed Wednesdays action as merely a small step towards tightening financial conditions, implying further action is possible. Sorkin added that the risk of further Fed rate hikes remains high if inflation continues to be high.On September 17th, Futures News reported that Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated in his concluding remarks that it is essential to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and the requirements of Premier Li Qiangs speech, and to earnestly enhance the sense of urgency, responsibility, and mission in developing advanced manufacturing. He emphasized the need to focus on key areas and crucial aspects, deeply implement the high-quality development action plan for key industrial chains, vigorously develop next-generation intelligent manufacturing, accelerate the upgrading and integrated development of the industrial system, and solidly promote the implementation of various tasks. He also stressed the importance of better leveraging the role of market mechanisms, accelerating the construction of a high-quality standard system, continuously rectifying disorderly and irrational competition, actively helping enterprises solve practical difficulties, and striving to create a favorable ecosystem for the development of advanced manufacturing.On September 17, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the evening of the 16th, saying that Pakistan summoned the Chargé dAffaires ad interim of the Indian High Commission in Pakistan that day to lodge a strong protest against the "highly provocative and unacceptable behavior" taken by an Indian Navy vessel in Pakistans Exclusive Economic Zone on the 15th. The statement said that during the Pakistani Navys biennial routine exercises, the Indian warship took provocative actions at extremely close range towards a Pakistani warship, resulting in a contact between the two vessels. This action seriously violated the relevant agreements signed by both sides and could escalate regional tensions. The statement urged India to strictly abide by international law and bilateral agreements, especially those aimed at preventing maritime conflicts. The Chargé dAffaires ad interim of the Pakistani High Commission in India will lodge the same protest with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: No comment on the Bank of Japans policy.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: The Bank of Japan is expected to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy in order to achieve the 2% price target.

GBP/JPY Falls Below 158.00 as UK Recession Concerns Grow

Daniel Rogers

May 19, 2022 10:06

Following Wednesday's release of UK inflation data, the GBP/JPY pair is likely to experience a sharp decline. After the UK's Office for National Statistics reported the annual UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) at a staggering 9 percent, the pound bulls shown widespread weakness. The asset has declined almost 2.5 percent since Tuesday, when it reached a recent high of 161.85.

 

Despite the fact that the UK Statistics Office has announced a slight decline in the annual rate from the consensus of 9.1 percent, a figure of 9 percent is sufficient to cause mayhem in the FX realm. It appears that the Bank of England (BOE) has been left with little choice but to implement a massive rate hike, since rising price pressures would aggravate the real income position for people.

 

The monthly rate of inflation in the United Kingdom increased to 2.5% from 1.1% previously. While the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, has increased to 6.2%, it has remained in line with expectations.

 

On the Japanese yen front, weaker than expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers have encouraged yen bulls. The annualized GDP number for Japan remained higher than the average estimate of -1.8 percent, at -1 percent. While the quarterly figure of -0.2 percent was still negative, it exceeded the predictions of -0.4 percent. Investors will depend on Japan's Friday-due inflation data for further guidance.

 

The early estimate for the annual CPI in Japan is 1.5 percent, but the core CPI could fall to -0.9 percent from -0.7 percent previously.

GBP/JPY

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