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On December 14th, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is preparing for meetings with the United States and European allies in the coming days. He will travel to Berlin to meet with US and European representatives to discuss "building the foundations of peace." Zelenskyy stated that this series of consultations is "decisive" for Ukraine, and that Ukraines core objective is "to achieve a decent and just peace." Earlier that day, Germany announced that it would host a US and Ukrainian delegation on the 14th to hold talks on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and to prepare for the summit of European leaders, including Zelenskyy, to be held in Berlin on the 15th. According to previous reports, US Presidential Envoy Witkov and former White House senior advisor Jared Kushner have already departed for Germany to meet with Zelenskyy and other European leaders.On December 14th, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on the 13th that if the EU were to utilize frozen Russian assets, it would trigger serious problems. Orbán explained that, firstly, such a move would erode public trust in European trustees; secondly, the Russian central bank has filed a lawsuit against the European Clearing Bank (ECB), which holds a large amount of frozen Russian assets, potentially putting the ECB under pressure to repay its debts. Furthermore, given the enormous sums involved, the economy of Belgium, where the ECB is located, could face collapse.The Ukrainian POW Reconciliation Center reports that Belarus has transferred 114 civilians to Ukraine, including Ukrainian and Belarusian citizens.The U.S. Embassy in Lithuania reported that nine prisoners, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialyatsky, have been transferred from Belarus to Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania. Other prisoners are being transferred from Belarus to Ukraine.On December 13, the U.S. Embassy in Vilnius (the capital of the Republic of Lithuania) announced that Belarus had released 123 prisoners following a meeting between U.S. Special Envoy Cole and Belarusian President Lukashenko, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialyatsky. The released prisoners, who were transferred to Lithuania, included Belarusian citizens, U.S. citizens, and citizens of other countries. The U.S. will continue diplomatic efforts to release the remaining political prisoners in Belarus. The embassy stated that the U.S. is prepared to engage with Belarus in a manner consistent with U.S. interests.

Fundamental Gold Prediction: The US Dollar Weighs on Gold. Will U.S. Retail Sales Change Direction?

Daniel Rogers

May 16, 2022 11:15

Gold prices declined further last week as traders considered the likelihood of an economic recession in light of the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance. This was supported by a number of inflation reports from the United States. The consumer price index (CPI) for April came in at 8.3 percent year-over-year, exceeding analysts' projections of 8.1 percent year-over-year. The producer price index (PPI) for the same period shows that factory-gate prices have risen by 11.0 percent year-over-year.

 

This batch of inflation data contributed to the dollar's appreciation against the majority of its major rivals. A stronger Dollar often works against the price of bullion. Due mostly to Finland's announcement that it plans to strongly pursue NATO membership, the Euro depreciated. This drew a strong response from Russia, which vowed to respond, so reinforcing the risk-averse sentiment that has been permeating the Eurozone.

 

During the upcoming week, traders will closely monitor numerous high-profile data releases that may affect XAU prices. The US retail sales report for April may have the most impact on market mood. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% month-over-month. A stronger-than-expected figure may alleviate some concerns about an impending economic recession. As the US Dollar has been operating as a safe haven for traders, this would likely serve to weaken the currency and may allow gold to climb by reducing risk aversion.

Gold versus US Dollar Chart Weekly

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