EUR/USD
1.15591
-0.022%
Gold
3383.21
-0.058%
Oil
70.411
0.558%
USD/JPY
144.824
0.053%
GBP/USD
1.35695
-0.060%
GBP/JPY
196.524
0.035%
Real-time News
On June 17, JPMorgan Chase published a research report stating that it recently held a non-trading roadshow for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK). After communicating with the management, it is expected that the operating guidance for fiscal year 2026 will have room for upward movement, mainly based on the banks forecast that the gold price will rise to US$3,840 per ounce in fiscal year 2026, compared with the companys guidance based on the assumption that the gold price will reach US$3,200 to US$3,400 per ounce. Morgan Stanley believes that Chow Tai Fooks sales of fixed-price gold products remain strong, contributing 19% to sales in fiscal year 2025, a significant increase from 7% in the previous year. It is expected that the momentum of product portfolio improvement will continue in fiscal year 2026, and the proportion is expected to increase to 20% to 23%. Morgan Stanley is also optimistic about Chow Tai Fooks continued promotion of brand transformation, so it raised its profit forecast for fiscal years 2026 to 2027 by 9% to 14%, and the target price was raised from HK$11.4 to HK$16.4, maintaining the "overweight" rating, and expecting earnings per share to increase by 53% in fiscal year 2026.On June 17, the Housing and Construction Bureau of Nanshan District, Shenzhen, recently issued a notice to raise 5,000 sets of social stock housing for families with Nanshan District registered households on the waiting list for public rental housing. The application period will last until June 27. After raising social stock housing, the government will calculate subsidies on a monthly basis, and determine the monthly subsidy amount based on the number of eligible family members on the waiting list: for families registered as one person in the citys public rental housing waiting list, the monthly subsidy amount is 1,575 yuan; for families registered as two or more people, the monthly subsidy amount is 2,925 yuan. The fundraising period (subsidy period) is 3 years. According to this standard, a family of two or more people can get a total of 105,300 yuan in 3 years.Futures June 17 news, yesterday, due to the fermentation of the market over the weekend, the situation in the Middle East escalated, the market was mainly worried, and the oil price opened high. Then, after the longs took profits and left the market and the market continued to hear news of the situation cooling down, the crude oil price once closed down, with large intraday fluctuations. Continue to pay attention to the Middle East issue. If the situation cools down, the crude oil price is expected to continue to fall. Otherwise, the situation is not clear, and the crude oil price will maintain a wide range of fluctuations.On June 17, UBS published a research report, predicting that Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) will have an average annual compound growth rate of 9% in earnings per share between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2028, and the dividend yield in fiscal 2026 is expected to reach 6%. At the current price level, it is equivalent to a forecast price-earnings ratio of 14 times in the next 12 months, which is lower than the industry median of 15 times. The bank believes that Chow Tai Fook may be undervalued at present and is confident in its operating guidance for the new year. If the gold price continues to rise, there is room for an upward adjustment in the operating profit guidance. Based on the latest operating performance, performance guidance, higher same-store sales growth expectations, less gross profit margin pressure and more operating expense savings, UBS raised Chow Tai Fooks operating profit forecast for fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2027 by 20% to 21%, and its earnings per share forecast by 21% to 30%. The target price was raised from HK$12 to HK$16, and the earnings per share forecast for fiscal 2026 will increase by 51% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the reduction in gold lending losses, as well as brand transformation and product portfolio improvement. The rating is "buy".June 17, Citigroup said that it expects gold to fall back below $3,000 an ounce in the coming quarters. Analysts including Max Layton said: "By the second half of 2026, gold will return to about $2,500-2,700 an ounce." Weaker investment demand, improved global economic growth prospects, and the Federal Reserves interest rate cuts may all lead to a decline in gold prices. They said: "We believe that investment demand for gold will weaken in late 2025 and 2026 as Trumps popularity rises and the put option on US economic growth begins to take effect, especially as the US midterm elections become the focus." In addition, "we believe that the Federal Reserve has a lot of room to lower restrictive policies to neutral." In the banks basic forecast (with a probability of 60%), gold prices are expected to consolidate above $3,000 an ounce in the next quarter and then move lower.
