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The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 6.4 occurred near the Sulawesi Sea at 12:14 on August 5th. The final result is subject to the official rapid report.Futures News, August 5th: Aluminum prices have recently fluctuated upwards. According to Fubao Information monitoring, as of August 4th, the spot aluminum price was 23,720 yuan/ton, up 0.94% month-on-month and 15.82% year-on-year. Key influencing factors: 1. The ongoing situation in the Middle East is concerning, raising concerns about its impact on the inflation path. While the supply and demand balance of aluminum itself has not been significantly disrupted, geopolitical uncertainties and reduced domestic and international inventories provide some support for aluminum prices. Following the Feds unchanged interest rate and Warshs slightly neutral stance, the market anticipates a rate hike in the fourth quarter, continuing to monitor the inflation process, which has eased some upward pressure on commodities. 2. Fundamentals remain relatively stable. Aluminum smelter operating rates are steadily increasing, the industrys aluminum-to-water ratio is high, downstream and end-user demand is resilient, and there are no obvious off-season characteristics. Aluminum ingot social inventories continue to decline, but the decline has slowed after the price increase. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate between 23,500-24,000 yuan/ton in the short term.A Russian nighttime attack on the Kyiv region of Ukraine has killed 14 people and injured 27.Global Chip LOF: Trading in this fund will be suspended from the opening of the market on the afternoon of August 5, 2026 until the close of the market on the same day. During the suspension period, redemption services for this fund will continue as usual.The Russian Automobile Association reported that car sales in Russia rose slightly to 122,092 units in July.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD falls sideways below $1,630 as DXY loses momentum and yields approach 4.24 percent

Daniel Rogers

Oct 21, 2022 15:05

 截屏2022-07-29 上午11.06.12.png

 

In the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is oscillating within a small range of $1,625.00-1,628.55. Gold awaits price action from the US dollar index (DXY). The DXY is battling to maintain its position above the immediate resistance level of 113.00. As S&P500 futures have retreated from about 3,645.00, the asset was unable to maintain above the 113.00 barrier.

 

Well, returns on U.S. government bonds are soaring like there is no tomorrow and do not perceive any barrier. Since the subprime crisis, 10-year US Treasury rates have increased to 4.24 percent for the first time. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' hawkish remarks have a positive impact on rates.

 

Thursday, Fed Governor Lisa Cook erroneously stated that inflationary pressures are too high and that additional rate hikes are necessary to combat them. She said that additional rate hikes are forthcoming and that the restrictive approach will be maintained.

 

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a fourth consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate increase remains over 93%.

 

After testing the $1,642.58–$1,670 range's highest auction area on an hourly scale, the gold price has experienced a precipitous drop. The precious gold is falling toward its two-year low of $1,614.85, which will occur on September 8, 2022. The decline of the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,629.86 and $1,634.46 strengthens the negative filters.

 

In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is bouncing between 40.00 and 60.00, and a change into the negative 20.00 to 40.00 area will spark downward momentum.


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