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On September 18, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in response to questions about the central banks statutory requirement to achieve "moderate long-term interest rates" at a press conference following the interest rate decision on Wednesday, explained why the three missions given to the Federal Reserve by Congress can be reduced to two major tasks in practice. Central bank officials have long positioned their mission as a dual task, with monetary policy focusing on keeping inflation low and stable and ensuring a continued strong job market, with little emphasis on the third task. Powell told reporters that the third task is real, but in the eyes of central bankers, it is a derivative of the two more well-known goals stipulated by law. He said: "We believe that moderate long-term interest rates are the result of achieving low and stable inflation and maximum employment." For some time, Federal Reserve officials did not believe that the third task required "independent action."1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.57%, the S&P 500 down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33%. American Express and Caterpillar rose over 2%, leading the Dow higher. The Wind US Tech 7 Index fell 0.66%, with Nvidia down over 2% and Amazon down over 1%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Baidu Group up over 11% and ACM Semiconductor up over 9%. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut as expected. The markets positive reaction to the policy shift provided support for U.S. stocks, but the divergent performance of technology stocks curbed overall gains. 2. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 4.99 basis points to 3.545%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 6.40 basis points to 3.533%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 6.77 basis points to 3.652%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 6.12 basis points to 4.089%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 3.86 basis points to 4.690%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that inflation remains high and stated that future rate cuts will be data-dependent, prompting the market to reassess tightening risks. 3. International precious metals futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% to $3,694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% to $41.99 per ounce. 4. International oil prices fell slightly, with the main US crude oil contract closing down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract fell 0.82% to $67.91 per barrel. 5. Most base metals prices in London fell, with LME zinc down 1.64% to $2,943 per ton, LME copper down 1.51% to $9,974 per ton, LME tin down 1.41% to $34,390 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.01% to $2,689.50 per ton, LME lead down 0.25% to $2,005 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.11% to $15,445 per ton. Expectations of loose monetary policy pushed the US dollar index to a yearly low, providing support for dollar-denominated base metals from a cost perspective.On September 18, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points overnight.Market news: The U.S. House of Representatives cleared procedural obstacles to voting on a temporary appropriations bill.On September 18th, Venezuelan Defense Minister Lopez Obrador announced the three-day "Sovereign Caribbean 200" military exercises on Orchila Island. The exercises, personally ordered by President Maduro, are intended to respond to US threats. The exercises will mobilize over 2,500 military personnel. The exercises will involve coordinated operations by the navy, army, and air force, involving 12 naval vessels of various classes, 22 military aircraft, and over 20 auxiliary vessels.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD corrects to near $1,970 on UBS-Credit Suisse deal; Fed policy observed

Daniel Rogers

Mar 20, 2023 13:16

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After UBS announced Credit Suisse's rescue plan, the gold price (XAU / USD) corrected to near $1,970. The precious metal is estimating a cushion near the $1,970.00 support, but further correction appears likely.

 

Investors should be aware that market participants have been pouring funds into the yellow metal as a hedge against the volatility associated with a potential banking crisis. The UBS acquisition has mitigated concerns of a global banking crisis. The purchase agreement has signaled that central banks are willing to provide assistance to commercial banks in an effort to restore investor confidence.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is fluctuating around 103.80 as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The analysts at Danske Bank anticipate that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) despite the recent turmoil and banking sector concerns.

 

S&P500 futures have erased the majority of their morning gains, indicating that the UBS-Credit Suisse agreement is insufficient to calm global banking fears. As the banking debacle has yet to reveal its true colors, negative market sentiment would persist for some time. In the meantime, the UBS-Credit Suisse merger has reduced demand for US government bonds, which were previously regarded as safe-haven investments. This has increased 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.46 percent.