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More than 100 companies, including Nestlé and Uber (UBER.N), are calling on governments to make electrification a core part of their economic strategies.June 22 – At a press conference held today by the Legislative Affairs Commission of the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC), it was announced that the 68th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC has decided that the 23rd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC will be held in Beijing from June 23 to 26. The meeting recommended that the 23rd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC: continue to deliberate on the draft revisions to the Trademark Law, the Certified Public Accountants Law, the Public Interest Litigation Law for Procuratorates, the Antarctic Activities and Environmental Protection Law, and the National Fire and Rescue Personnel Law; deliberate on the motion submitted by the NPC Financial and Economic Affairs Committee to review the draft revision of the Government Procurement Law; and deliberate on the motions submitted by the State Council to review the draft revisions to the Bidding and Tendering Law, the Financial Law, and the Law of the Peoples Bank of China.June 22 – The Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced on June 21 that the total number of confirmed Ebola cases in the country has risen to 1,003, with 254 deaths. The latest data released by the DRC Ministry of Health on social media platforms shows that 100 people have recovered, and 365 patients are currently in isolation or hospitalized. The countrys current contact tracing rate is 58%, lower than the health departments target of 95%. Relevant departments are intensifying contact tracing and investigation efforts, strengthening community outreach and mobilization, and improving case treatment and testing capabilities.The SC crude oil futures contract fell by 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 503.40 yuan per barrel.1. Market plunges: Precious metals traded weakly in the morning, with Shanghai silver falling over 5%, Shanghai gold over 3%, and platinum and palladium over 4%, indicating a concentrated sell-off by long positions accumulated at previous highs. 2. Fed shows hawkish stance: The Feds June decision kept interest rates unchanged, but new Chairman Warsh removed forward guidance indicating a tendency to cut rates in his debut meeting. Furthermore, the dot plot showed that half of the officials expect at least one rate hike this year, leading to an earlier-than-expected rate hike and a stronger dollar and US Treasury yields. 3. Geopolitical negotiations take a dramatic turn: After the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, the first round of formal negotiations suddenly changed. Due to Israels continued attacks on Lebanon and threatening remarks from Trump, the Iranian delegation walked out of the meeting and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing risk aversion and liquidity concerns to severely impact the market. 4. Fund Holdings Trends: Investment demand showed mixed performance. Holdings in the worlds largest gold ETF (SPDR) increased slightly to 1020.5 tons weekly, while holdings in the worlds largest silver ETF (iShares) decreased by 22.51 tons weekly, indicating a roughly equal increase and decrease in speculative funds. 5. Everbright Futures View: Current gold prices have largely priced in hawkish expectations, and marginal negative momentum is weakening. With falling oil prices, if inflation expectations remain stagnant, it may drive a short-term market correction due to easing concerns about tightening, allowing gold to maintain its bottom-range consolidation. 6. Nanhua Futures View: With geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, strong AI stocks, and rising expectations of interest rate hikes, precious metals are in a short-term weak position. However, in the medium to long term, the Peoples Bank of my country maintains its strategy of buying gold on dips, and the medium-term support logic for central bank gold purchases has not weakened significantly. 7. Shanghai Zhongqi Futures View: The pullback in gold prices is a result of the Federal Reserves policy shift towards hawkishness, changes in communication style, and a convergence of macroeconomic data. With interest rate hike expectations fully priced into the market, short-term adjustment pressures are expected. However, easing tensions in the Middle East are conducive to stabilizing inflation expectations, and precious metals will continue to exhibit two-way volatility. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data from Everbright Futures, Nanhua Futures, Shanghai Zhongqi Futures, etc., and is for reference only, not investment advice.)

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.