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On May 21st, Tesla officially announced its latest plans for a supervised version of Full Self-Driving (FSD), mentioning that this version can be used in China. Recently, Tesla China posted several job openings related to autonomous driving testing, sparking speculation within the industry about the accelerated rollout of FSD in the Chinese market. A reporter, posing as a consumer, contacted Teslas official customer service, who replied: "The 64,000 RMB Autopilot feature is not compatible with all vehicles; some are only compatible with the 32,000 RMB Enhanced Autopilot feature. The company is actively pursuing the approval process in accordance with relevant national regulations, and will push the approval to domestic customers as soon as possible."Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On May 20th, COMEX gold initially fell before rising, surging intraday to close at $4546.2 per ounce, a gain of 0.78%. Domestic SHFE gold futures opened higher and continued to rise in the night session, closing at 995.92 yuan per gram, a gain of 0.88%. 1. Geopolitically, Trump stated on Wednesday that negotiations between the US and Iran had entered the "final stage," reiterating that war would be "very rapid." Meanwhile, media reports indicated that some oil tankers had begun to re-enter the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated on Wednesday that 26 ships, including oil tankers, container ships, and other merchant vessels, had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, coordinated with Iran. Influenced by this news, the US dollar and US Treasury yields fell slightly, providing support for gold. However, given the relatively volatile geopolitical news, the impact of further developments on gold prices should be closely monitored. 2. The minutes of the Federal Reserves April policy meeting, released yesterday, showed that participants generally believed that given persistently high inflation data and the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the Middle East conflict and its economic impact, the period of remaining on hold might exceed previous expectations. If the US-Iran conflict keeps inflation high, a rate hike might indeed be necessary. However, since previous expectations for a rate hike had already been partially priced in, the impact on gold prices was limited. Looking ahead, the assessment of the US-Iran conflict remains the dominant factor for gold. Until these uncertainties are effectively resolved, investors should lower their expectations for gold prices in the first half of the year.According to Nippon Television News, Japan is considering proposing a supplementary budget of approximately 3 trillion yen.Hong Kong-listed tech stocks performed poorly, with Bilibili (09626.HK) falling more than 5%, Baidu (09888.HK) falling more than 3%, and Kuaishou (01024.HK), Alibaba (09988.HK), and others following suit.On May 21, Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Koeda expressed support for raising the benchmark interest rate, the latest sign that momentum is building for action as early as next month. "I believe that potential inflation could exceed 2% in the future," Koeda said on Thursday in a speech to local business leaders in Fukuoka, western Japan. "Therefore, I believe it is reasonable for the Bank of Japan to raise the policy rate at an appropriate pace to address high inflation, while considering the pros and cons to the economy." At the April policy meeting, Koeda was one of the majority members who voted to keep the rate unchanged; that meeting saw a 6-3 vote, the largest split since Governor Kazuo Ueda took office. While Koeda did not specify her preferred timing for the next move, her comments likely support speculation that the authorities will raise rates at the next policy decision on June 16. She is the second member in the majority to hint at a possible future rate hike, after the Bank of Japan stated earlier this month that the authorities should raise rates "at the earliest possible stage" as long as the economy remains stable.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.