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July 3rd - Nick Timiraos, a well-known mouthpiece for the Federal Reserve, stated that Trump believes Fed Chairman Warsh is a dovish figure within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This comes a day after White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; and a week earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessant stated that he hoped the Fed would remain "open" to inflation and expected the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"...On July 3rd, the Hainan Provincial Housing Provident Fund Management Bureau issued a notice regarding the withdrawal of housing provident funds to pay property management fees. The notice clarifies that contributors can apply to withdraw their housing provident funds once a year to pay property management fees for any owner-occupied residential property under their familys name in Hainan Province. Owner-occupied residential properties do not include self-built houses, shops, office buildings, or commercial properties such as timeshare hotel rooms. It is worth noting that if the contributors family has an outstanding housing provident fund loan in Hainan Province, the combined balance of the contributors and their spouses accounts after applying for the property management fee withdrawal must be sufficient to repay three months of the loan.July 3 – Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran stated, “The US non-farm payroll data was actually weak, but I still believe inflation will peak above 3.7%, and artificial intelligence, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector continue to support economic growth. The Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real point of contention between the US and Europe.” Subran believes that the European Central Bank will not take further action after last months rate hike. “That was an insurance-style rate hike, but judging from the current data, it seems to be over,” he said. “The traumatic effects of the (Iranian) war will take time to manifest; the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than it was a few weeks ago.”NATOs Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe: Europe has increased its investment. Europe is filling the gaps left by the US repositioning its troops.The Houthi rebels in Yemen stated that if Saudi Arabia launches further attacks, it will "face attacks targeting Saudi airports and other vital objectives."

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.