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July 27th - A weekend pause in attacks between the US and Iran boosted market expectations for a potential resumption of energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz. European benchmark natural gas prices fell sharply in early trading on Monday. ICE data showed that as of 07:35 GMT, the near-month benchmark contract at the Dutch TTF gas hub fell €4.69 to €58.89 per megawatt-hour. The UK near-month gas contract fell 11.44 pence to 142.67 pence per British thermal unit (BTU). Last week, natural gas prices rose to their highest intraday level since March, influenced by 13 consecutive days of attacks between the US and Iran. However, prices retreated to a six-day low after the two countries suspended their attacks. Oil prices also fell sharply, with analysts at ING saying in a morning report that this reflected a "market eager for positive news." They stated, "While this is the first substantial sign of easing tensions, the underlying reasons remain unclear." They added that the ceasefire has not yet led to any significant rebound in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.The one-year implied yield on the dollar against the Indian rupee was 2.82%, down 10 basis points on the day. Traders said the Reserve Bank of India may be conducting dollar-rupee swap operations.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei: The mediators conveyed a message from the United States to us, but we are not currently negotiating with Washington.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei: Iran has not asked the United States to resume negotiations.Germanys July IFO Business Climate Index will be released in ten minutes.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.

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