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On May 27th, according to Nikkei, Federal Reserve Chairman Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed may take a "series" of interest rate hikes to address inflation caused by the Middle East situation. During the FOMC meeting in late April, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Kashkari and two other officials objected to the Feds decision to include language in its statement hinting at future monetary easing. In a written interview, Kashkari stated, "I think the next rate adjustment could be a rate cut, or it could be a rate hike," expressing his differing opinion. Kashkari said the outcome depends on the trend of inflation, which in turn depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon or remains effectively closed due to further damage to the regions infrastructure, the latter exacerbating the global energy shortage. Kashkari expressed concern that long-term inflation expectations for businesses and households "could get out of control." He stated that the FOMC "will likely need to take strong measures," and that rate hikes, or even a series of rate hikes, may be necessary.Federal Reserves Kashkari: A protracted war with Iran could trigger a "series" of interest rate hikes in the United States.May 27th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract fell 1.15% to 988 yuan/gram, the Shanghai Silver futures contract fell 1.38% to 18,601 yuan/kilogram, and the SC Crude Oil futures contract rose 0.81% to 610 yuan/barrel.Micron Technology (MU.O) surged over 20%, marking its biggest single-day gain since 2011.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: Israel launched an attack in Gaza on the leader of a new armed branch of Hamas.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.

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