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Market news: Leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have signed a memorandum of understanding on independence.September 14th - According to a Reuters survey, a majority of economists believe the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week and at least once more before the end of March next year, reversing the previously fragile consensus that interest rates would remain unchanged. Following Fridays inflation report, the Reuters survey showed that 85% of economists believe the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate hike since July 2023. Nearly 53% of forecasters expect at least one more rate hike by the end of March, compared to 56% last week who believed rates would remain unchanged. The prevailing view of a rate cut in 2027 is no longer valid. Stephen Juneau, senior economist at Bank of America, said, "Wash has actually put himself in a position where the Fed will only abandon rate hikes if the data is very weak." He has been expecting three rate hikes this year since June. "We didnt initially meet that expectation... then we received this inflation report, and things became clearer."On September 14th, exclusive data compiled from reliable industry sources revealed that the outstanding assets of 14 wealth management companies (including 6 state-owned bank wealth management companies and 8 joint-stock bank wealth management companies, accounting for approximately 80% of the market share) with assets under management exceeding 1 trillion yuan reached approximately 27.4 trillion yuan as of the end of August, representing a net inflow of over 280 billion yuan compared to July. Data from the China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center shows that the total outstanding assets in the market reached 33.66 trillion yuan at the end of June this year. Based on the compiled data, even considering only the increase in assets under management by the 14 wealth management companies in the past two months (1.46 trillion yuan in July and 0.28 trillion yuan in August), the total size of the wealth management market has reached approximately 35.4 trillion yuan. In the first eight months of this year, the outstanding assets of the 14 major wealth management companies increased by approximately 1.96 trillion yuan. By product category, the scale of equity-inclusive products increased by over 1.98 trillion yuan, non-cash pure debt products increased by only about 176 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, and cash products decreased by over 180 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year.September 14th - The German Finance Ministry stated on Monday that Germany will push for a windfall profits tax on energy companies during Fridays informal meeting of EU finance ministers. Meanwhile, the German government expressed growing concern about rising gasoline prices. A government spokesperson said, "We are closely monitoring developments with increasing concern." He added that recent price increases are placing a heavy burden on businesses and the public.GAIL, India’s state-owned natural gas company, says that liquefied natural gas prices exceeding $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) have impacted demand.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.