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On October 16th, Russ Mould of AJ Bell warned in a report that economic growth could deteriorate further if the UK government introduces unfavorable tax increases in its November 26th budget. He noted, "There is a significant risk that tax adjustments could further undermine consumer and business confidence." Recent data showed that UK GDP grew by a meager 0.1% in August. Mould stated that the UK is facing "weak growth and a weak fiscal position," posing a daunting challenge for Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves.Kremlin: Russia can provide high-quality oil at lower prices to countries that Trump is trying to persuade not to buy Russian oil.On October 16th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Measures for the Supervision of Fair and Open Access to Oil and Gas Pipeline Network Facilities." These measures clearly define how to regulate fair and open access to oil and gas pipeline network facilities. They include a series of arrangements regarding "what to regulate, who will regulate, and how to regulate," providing a strong foundation for deepening regulation of natural monopolies in the oil and gas sector. The measures will take effect on November 1st. Furthermore, the "Measures for the Supervision of Fair and Open Access to Oil and Gas Pipeline Network Facilities" also clarify for the first time the service process for fair and open access to oil and gas pipeline network facilities, standardizing standards for user registration and business acceptance. Information on remaining capacity and operational status of pipeline network facilities must be disclosed in accordance with regulations to ensure both facility information security and user needs.Fitch: Frances pension reform suspension faces the risk of policy reversal after the 2027 general election.On October 16th, Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Research at the World Gold Council, stated that despite gold having reached 45 all-time highs this year, speculative holdings and net long positions in the futures market have yet to reach historical peaks, indicating that the market is not yet saturated. Furthermore, global central banks are continuing their gold-buying trend, potentially leading to further inflows. Golds safe-haven and inflation-fighting properties remain attractive amidst rising economic uncertainty, making it inappropriate to simply judge market overheating based on short-term gains. The fundamental reason for golds continued rise is the markets search for alternatives to US dollar assets. The previous catalyst was the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which led to increased gold holdings to avoid freezing US dollar assets. The current catalyst is US policy uncertainty and high government debt in developed countries. Overall, some investors are taking a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about a potential correction after entering the market due to the already high gold price. However, long-term macroeconomic support remains.

Following the release of UK employment data, the EURGBP maintains a position above the center of 0.8700

Daniel Rogers

Nov 15, 2022 16:53

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During Tuesday's early European session, the EURGBP cross extends yesterday's modest retreat from the 0.8820-0.8830 support zone and crawls lower. Following the announcement of the most current employment data from the United Kingdom, the cross maintains a defensive position in the area of 0.8770-0.8765 with minimal volatility.

 

The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed from 3.5% to 3.6% in the three months preceding September. In addition, the number of individuals claiming unemployment-related benefits decreased by 3,300, as opposed to the average prediction of a decrease of 12,500. However, the disappointment was somewhat by better-than-expected pay growth statistics.

 

In reality, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses climbed from 5.5% to 5.7%, above the predicted growth of 5.6%. The data lends credence to market predictions of a further policy tightening by the Bank of England, which is expected to give some support for the British pound. A slight boost in demand for the shared currency, however, works as a tailwind for the EURGBP cross, limiting its downside.

 

Against the backdrop of concerns regarding a more aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB), the introduction of fresh dollar sales bolsters the Euro. Before placing large bearish bets on the EURGBP cross and bracing for bigger intraday losses ahead of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, this calls for some caution.