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Poland signs $3.8 billion deal to boost F-16 fleet capabilities.On August 13, CNBC reported that two unnamed government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unnamed names. These new members include Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey, and BlackRocks Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder. They join the eight candidates previously confirmed by CNBC: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson. Officials also confirmed that the list also includes Mark Summerlin, a former economic adviser in the Bush administration; Dallas Fed President Logan; and former St. Louis Fed President Bullard. Officials described a "deliberative process" in which Treasury Secretary Bessant will meet with all candidates, whittle down the list, and present the final list to the president for a decision. The size of the list and the process described suggest a decision is not imminent and could take considerable time. However, officials declined to provide a timeline.On August 13th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said in an interview that the Federal Reserves interest rate should be 150-175 basis points lower than it is now, and that if the data were accurate, the Fed could have cut rates earlier. Bessant believes a 50 basis point rate cut is possible, with a series of cuts likely starting in September. Regarding the selection of the Fed chair, he mentioned that they will cast a wide net, encompassing 10-11 people. He also stated that he had proposed establishing a "shadow Fed chair" but now believes it is unnecessary. Furthermore, Bessant believes the Fed does not need to resume large-scale asset purchases (QE). Regarding the jobs report, he expressed opposition to halting its release, but emphasized the need for reliable data. Some analysts say the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is now almost zero. For this to happen, another weak non-farm payroll report would likely be needed in September.According to CNBC: Two government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell when his term expires in May this year, including three people who have never been publicly nominated before. The new candidates include Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos, former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindsey and BlackRock Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder.On August 13, Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, stated in a statement: "Hong Kongs banking system is well-capitalized, adequately provisioned, and financially strong to withstand market volatility." While credit risks facing the banking system have increased in recent years amidst the ongoing macroeconomic challenges, the banks profit models remain unaffected. I would also like to take this opportunity to clarify earlier rumors regarding "bad banks." The establishment of "bad banks" is an extraordinary measure taken when banks face serious balance sheet problems and is completely inconsistent with the current sound operations and strong financial position of Hong Kongs banks.

Following the release of UK employment data, the EURGBP maintains a position above the center of 0.8700

Daniel Rogers

Nov 15, 2022 16:53

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During Tuesday's early European session, the EURGBP cross extends yesterday's modest retreat from the 0.8820-0.8830 support zone and crawls lower. Following the announcement of the most current employment data from the United Kingdom, the cross maintains a defensive position in the area of 0.8770-0.8765 with minimal volatility.

 

The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed from 3.5% to 3.6% in the three months preceding September. In addition, the number of individuals claiming unemployment-related benefits decreased by 3,300, as opposed to the average prediction of a decrease of 12,500. However, the disappointment was somewhat by better-than-expected pay growth statistics.

 

In reality, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses climbed from 5.5% to 5.7%, above the predicted growth of 5.6%. The data lends credence to market predictions of a further policy tightening by the Bank of England, which is expected to give some support for the British pound. A slight boost in demand for the shared currency, however, works as a tailwind for the EURGBP cross, limiting its downside.

 

Against the backdrop of concerns regarding a more aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB), the introduction of fresh dollar sales bolsters the Euro. Before placing large bearish bets on the EURGBP cross and bracing for bigger intraday losses ahead of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, this calls for some caution.


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