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Exxon and Chevron Look Attractive and Set To Make Up Ground

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:56

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Exxon Mobil and Chevron look attractive after lagging behind gains in the exploration and production sector this year, according to one analyst.


Devin McDermott, a Morgan Stanley energy analyst, wrote in a client note that Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) and Chevron (CVX) now have projected 2022 free-cash flow yields of about 12%.


“This is the highest level of the past decade and greater than two times the five-year average of around 5%,” he wrote.


The free-cash flow yields of Exxon and Chevron are in line or better than those of E&P companies Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), EOG Resources (EOG), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Devon Energy (DVN), McDermott noted.


Exxon, whose shares finished Wednesday at $63.25, is up 53% this year while Chevron, at $113.16, has risen 34%. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production exchange-traded fund (XOP) has soared 85%, to $58.50. Exxon’s dividend yield is 5.5% and Chevron, 4.7%. ‘


McDermott has an Overweight rating on Chevron with a $149 price target and Overweight rating and $84 price target for Exxon.


McDermott wrote there could be a “catch-up trade” for the two majors.


McDermott argues that Exxon and Chevron should trade at a lower free-cash flow yield than the E&P stocks because of their diversified businesses, including energy production, refining, and chemicals.


“CVX and XOM’s integration into downstream and chemicals supports more stable through-the-cycle earnings and cash flow. In essence, the oil majors offer a higher quality cash flow stream that should be capitalized at a lower yield than that of independent E&Ps. Further, recovering downstream margins could offer an outsize rate of change into 2022, in particular for XOM due to its large refining footprint,” McDermott wrote.


Exxon plans to increase carbon capture at Wyoming facility


Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) said on Thursday it plans to expand carbon capture and storage (CCS) at its LaBarge, Wyoming facility and had started the process for engineering, procurement and construction contracts for the project.


The expanded project will capture up to 1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually, in addition to the 6-7 million metric tons already being captured at LaBarge.


The oil major added that a final decision on the proposed $400 million investment, the latest in multiple expansions of carbon capture at LaBarge, is expected in 2022 and operations could start as early as 2025.


Earlier this year, Exxon had created a division to commercialize its technology that helps reduce carbon emissions. The company had said it would invest $3 billion on lower emission solutions through 2025, by which time it plans to reduce the intensity of its oilfield greenhouse gas emissions by 15%-20% from 2016 levels.

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