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New York gold futures surged 4.00% intraday, currently trading at $5286.10 per ounce.On January 28th, China Railway Industry Corporation (CRIC) announced that its newly signed contracts for 2025 amounted to RMB 44.396 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%. Among these, the business of special engineering machinery and related services increased by 6.70% year-on-year, while the business of transportation equipment and related services decreased by 11.90% year-on-year. The total value of major contracts signed/won in the fourth quarter was RMB 2.532 billion, accounting for approximately 8.73% of the companys operating revenue in 2024.Eurozone money markets currently estimate a 25% probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by July, compared to 15% on Tuesday.1. Bank of America: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, in June and July respectively. 2. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts this year, with the first cut in June. 3. Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September. 4. Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and December this year. 5. EY Bordrin: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, but not until the second half of the year. 6. JPMorgan Chase: No longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026; the next action is expected to be a 25 basis point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027. 7. KBC: The next rate cut may not come until March, by 25 basis points. A further 25 basis point cut may be made in the second quarter to reach the neutral interest rate level. 8. Oxford Economics: The Federal Reserve will maintain its policy unchanged until June. A decline in inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner if the labor market weakens further. 9. ING: The baseline forecast is for the Fed to cut rates in March and June, but the apparent risk now is that this pace could be delayed by three months overall. The Feds "dual mandate" will face more pressing pressure to achieve a rate cut in March. 10. ANZ: A pause in rate cuts in January was appropriate, but a prolonged pause is unnecessary. They forecast the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points each in March and June. 11. Wells Fargo: Given the two months of economic data to be released before the March meeting, rate cuts could come earlier, in March and June. The risk to their forecast leans towards a delay in the timing of rate cuts.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.3 occurred at 15:27 on January 28 near Sunan County, Zhangye City, Gansu Province (38.93 degrees north latitude, 98.22 degrees east longitude). The final result is subject to the official rapid report.

European Open: The DAX is on track for its first bearish week in five

Steven Zhao

Aug 22, 2022 15:13

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The weakest major currencies overnight were the JPY and CHF, while the US dollar continued to gain ground overnight, albeit more slowly than during the US session. The BOJ is unlikely to take action considering that the inflation rate in Japan reached its highest point in 7.5% of the year and is predicted to peak in Q4. This served as the perfect impetus for additional USD/JPY support overnight.

 

DAX 4-hour chart: As we approach the final trading day of the week, the DAX is on track to form a 2-bar bearish reversal pattern on the weekly chart at present levels. As it would be forming close below trend resistance, projected from its record high, the pattern could possibly have some significance. It remains to be seen if it represents a meaningful swing high, but at the very least, we favor a deeper pullback from current levels.

 

Although prices are stabilizing in the bottom part of this week's range following a sharp decline from the highs, the 4-hour chart is still above trend support, and the bias is for a negative break. When the 13,605 support is broken, it is assumed that the bearish trend will continue and the 14,440 - 13,500 support zone comes into focus. If that zone is also broken, a run for the 13,330 support zone is then made possible.