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On March 15th, Matt Reed, Vice President of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, stated that an attack on Kharg Island could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil-producing countries. He said, "Iran will retaliate in kind." The United States warned on Friday that if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Islands oil facilities could become the next target. Reed warned that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be to find alternative energy supplies. "At least 10 million barrels of oil are trapped in the Gulf every day, plus more than 4 million barrels of refined petroleum products and tens of billions of cubic feet of liquefied natural gas, with no easy alternatives." The International Energy Agency has announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history, with 32 member countries planning to release approximately 400 million barrels of oil. However, Reed believes this measure will have limited effect, stating, "By the time the oil gets to the market, it may be too little, too late." He described it as nothing more than a "band-aid."On March 15th, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in the past 48 hours, the US and Israel had launched attacks on several civilian industrial facilities in Iran, resulting in the deaths of several workers. The statement said that after setbacks in its confrontation with Iran, the US and Israel have turned to attacking non-military industrial facilities. Iran warned that US companies in the region should withdraw from their facilities and urged nearby residents to stay away from industrial areas with US capital involvement to avoid potential attacks.The Swiss government has discussed the US request for military overflight. In accordance with the principle of neutrality, the Federal Council rejected two requests related to the war with Iran.Local officials said operations at the Lanaz refinery in Iraq’s Erbil province have been suspended until the fire is extinguished and the damage is assessed.On March 15th, Colombian Energy Minister Edwin Palma posted on the X platform that Venezuelas state-owned oil company PDVSA intends to terminate its contract with Colombias state-owned oil company Ecopetrol regarding the Antonio Ricardo pipeline, citing insufficient investment in its maintenance. Palma stated that the Colombian government plans to meet with the US government next Monday to discuss lifting sanctions in an effort to normalize commercial relations with Venezuela. Palma also indicated that Colombia has approved a license to resume imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Venezuela at a rate of 1.26 million gallons per month.

European Open: The DAX is on track for its first bearish week in five

Steven Zhao

Aug 22, 2022 15:13

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The weakest major currencies overnight were the JPY and CHF, while the US dollar continued to gain ground overnight, albeit more slowly than during the US session. The BOJ is unlikely to take action considering that the inflation rate in Japan reached its highest point in 7.5% of the year and is predicted to peak in Q4. This served as the perfect impetus for additional USD/JPY support overnight.

 

DAX 4-hour chart: As we approach the final trading day of the week, the DAX is on track to form a 2-bar bearish reversal pattern on the weekly chart at present levels. As it would be forming close below trend resistance, projected from its record high, the pattern could possibly have some significance. It remains to be seen if it represents a meaningful swing high, but at the very least, we favor a deeper pullback from current levels.

 

Although prices are stabilizing in the bottom part of this week's range following a sharp decline from the highs, the 4-hour chart is still above trend support, and the bias is for a negative break. When the 13,605 support is broken, it is assumed that the bearish trend will continue and the 14,440 - 13,500 support zone comes into focus. If that zone is also broken, a run for the 13,330 support zone is then made possible.