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On April 20th, amidst increased uncertainty due to the Iran war, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, after attending an IMF meeting, did not commit to an April rate hike in advance, but still released some hawkish signals, suggesting that a June rate hike, if not this month, remains a possibility. While market attention focused on his lack of explicit indication of an April rate hike, Ueda did not downplay the possibility, emphasizing the need to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and its impact on the Japanese economy. Three sources familiar with the Bank of Japans thinking indicated that, with both possibilities remaining, policymakers might hesitate until the last minute to decide whether to raise rates at the April 27-28 meeting, depending in part on the progress of negotiations to end the war between the US and Iran. The sources stated, "Given the high degree of uncertainty, it is too early to make a decision now regarding the policy meeting more than a week from now."On April 20th, gold prices edged lower on Monday due to a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, news of a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosted oil prices and fueled inflation concerns. Ilya Spivak, Global Head of Macro Affairs at Tastylive, stated, “The market’s optimism regarding a ceasefire agreement in the US-Iran war appears to have been dashed last week, hence the decline in gold prices today. This has reignited the ‘wartime trade’ pattern common since the beginning of the conflict. Rising oil prices, in turn, have impacted inflation expectations and pushed up yields and the dollar exchange rate.”On April 20th, Tesla China reported that when Tesla Vice President Wang Hao was asked about robots at a media event on April 14th, he only discussed that Teslas Shanghai Gigafactory has excellent large-scale production capabilities and great potential for the future. "Currently, Tesla has no specific plans to mass-produce robots at the Shanghai Gigafactory. Please do not describe in reports that Tesla is about to mass-produce robots in Shanghai; this is incorrect information," Tesla China stated.Hong Kong-listed Qunhe Technology (00068.HK) continues its upward trend, currently up nearly 40% to HK$25.96.On April 20, according to a report by RIA Novosti, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko stated that the Russian military will consider Frances plans to deploy nuclear weapons in non-nuclear European countries when updating its list of priority targets in future conflicts. In an interview, Grushko said that France has announced the possibility of dispersing its nuclear forces to non-nuclear European countries, a point that requires special attention. In the event of a serious conflict in the future, Russia will closely monitor this situation when updating its priority military targets.

E-mini S&P 500 Index: Tough to Sustain Rally without More Solid Support Base

Cory Russell

May 06, 2022 11:18

Investors are anxious that the Federal Reserve's rate rise would not be enough to contain inflation, and that the US central bank will have to take more harsh measures. After reversing all of yesterday's gains, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading down late in the afternoon on Thursday.


At 18:29 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures were trading at 4125.50, down 169.75 or 3.95 percent. The S&P 500 Trust ETF has dropped 16.77 percent to $412.29.


On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by half a percentage point, as expected, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressly ruled out a 75-basis-point increase at a future meeting.


Only 22 S&P 500 index members were in the green at 18:00 GMT. In addition, all 11 of the major S&P sectors are down, with consumer discretionary leading the pack.

The Daily Swing Chart's Technical Analysis

The primary trend is down, according to the daily swing chart. A move through 4056.00 will herald the resumption of the downtrend. If the price breaks through 4509.00, the primary trend will shift to the upside.


The little declining tendency is still present. Taking out 4303.50 will move the minor trend higher and transfer momentum to the upside.


The minor range is 4303.50 to 4056.00. The 50 percent mark is at 4179.75, which is the nearest resistance. The second closest resistance is a 50% level at 4343.50.

Prospects in the Short Term

The reaction of traders to 4179.75 will likely determine the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into Thursday's close.

Negative Predictions

A prolonged rise below 4179.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If enough negative momentum develops, expect the selling to extend towards the major bottom around 4056.00.


If 4056.00 is taken out, a quick test of the main bottom at 4020.50 is expected on May 12, 2021. This might be the turning point in a downward trend.

Optimistic Outlook

A sustained move over 4179.75 will show the presence of buyers. If there is enough upward momentum, look for a late-session burst over the resistance cluster around 4282.50 – 4303.50.