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On October 3rd, Bank of America economists stated in a report that the UKs approximately £20 billion fiscal gap could be addressed through small tax increases, such as a gambling tax and a freeze on the income tax threshold. However, if the fiscal gap exceeds £20 billion, it may be difficult to fill without raising other taxes such as income tax, national insurance contributions, and VAT, or through cuts in public spending. The economists stated, "We note that raising VAT would be inconsistent with the Chancellors goal of reducing inflation, while a wealth tax appears increasingly unlikely."The French-German 10-year yield spread erased its previous narrowing trend and is now 82 basis points.French Socialist Party leader Faure: Le Cornus budget proposal has shortcomings.French Socialist Party leader Faure: The tax plan proposed by Le Cornu is far from our previous suggestions.On October 3rd, New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent FOMC member, stated on Friday that unpredictable changes are inevitable, and central banks need to recognize this and develop strategies to address these circumstances. He stated that coping with uncertainty requires strong principles and strategies to address a range of unexpected events, while noting that new situations will continue to emerge. Williams also stated that previously unconventional strategies, such as bond purchases, are no longer novel but rather a normal part of the toolkit. Furthermore, Williams stated that stabilizing inflation expectations is crucial and cannot be taken for granted.

Despite market skepticism and anticipation of Fed Chair Powell's speech, USD/CHF rallied from 0.9200

Alina Haynes

Jan 10, 2023 15:03

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The USD/CHF pair has detected buying activity after dropping close to the round-level support of 0.9200 to begin the Asian session. In spite of the upbeat market sentiment, the Swiss franc extended its rebound above the immediate resistance level of 0.9200.

 

After a corrective move on Monday, S&P500 futures are displaying a mediocre performance as the markets fail to sustain a recovery. Long liquidation was the result of stocks' extended uptrend. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reestablished its seven-month low at about 102.50, pushed by increased recession fears following a major dip in economic activity and less hawkish monetary policy predictions following a strong drop in wage inflation.

 

As investors' appetite for risk decreases once more, the demand for U.S. government bonds continues to decline. This has contributed to 10-year US Treasury yields exceeding 3.53 percent.

 

Tuesday's highlight will be Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell's address, which will clarify the monetary policy decision for February. The remarks of Atlanta Fed bank president Raphael Bostic provide investors with a wealth of actionable information. A Fed policymaker forecasts that there will be no recession in CY2023, but has severely reduced GDP projections to 1%. He anticipates that interest rates will have to remain elevated until at least 2024.

 

On the subject of the Swiss currency, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to maintain a modest monetary policy if the Real Retail Sales (Nov) data declines annually. The economic data decreased by 1.3%, when the consensus forecast predicted a 3.0% expansion.