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Futures news on May 15th, oil prices stopped rising and fell slightly. The supply and demand of fuel oil products showed differences. Medium and high sulfur resources can be negotiated and shipped at low prices. Downstream procurement is cautious at high levels. Refineries are making profit concessions to promote shipments. The news is bearish. It is expected that fuel oil trading will be mainly stable today, with some narrow adjustments.May 15th news, early this morning, Google Deepmind released on its official website, AlphaEvolve, a programming AI Agent for designing advanced algorithms. It is worth mentioning that when Google demonstrated the capabilities of AlphaEvolve, it deliberately found a difficult mathematical problem that has been around for more than 300 years - the kissing number problem. The history of this problem can be traced back to 1694, and Newton also debated and studied it with others. The difficulty lies in the maximum number of spheres of the same size that can touch a central sphere at the same time in a space of a given dimension without overlapping. AlphaEvolve discovered a structural type consisting of 593 outer spheres and established a new lower bound in 11-dimensional space, surpassing the record set by mathematicians before.Japans Topix index fell 1%.Futures News on May 15th, overnight crude oil fluctuated at a high level and was weak, and a short-term head pattern may form near important resistance. The reference pressure level of US oil is around $62.9/barrel. 1. From the perspective of supply and demand, crude oil is still under overall pressure, and OPEC+ production increase may be a relatively certain event. The OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC+ total production fell in April, and the member countries that agreed to increase production only increased production by 25,000 barrels/day (planned 138,000 barrels/day). On the one hand, the data needs to be verified, and on the other hand, if OPEC+ production increases are less than expected, it may change the previous supply and demand expectations. It is still difficult to see a certain increase on the demand side. The previous oil price fell below the production cut bottom mainly because OPEC+ withdrew from production cuts and planned to speed up production increases. Pay attention to crude oil supply data and retain the sensitivity of expected revisions. 2. In terms of geopolitics, Iran will promise never to manufacture nuclear weapons and destroy its highly enriched uranium stocks that can be used for weaponization in exchange for lifting economic sanctions on Iran, which will be bearish for oil prices, but it is still unknown whether the US-Iran negotiations can be implemented. 3. From a technical perspective, oil prices plummeted below the bottom of production cuts for many years and then rebounded for the second time to test the pressure level. The weekly level of U.S. oil showed a state of breaking, testing and oscillating. U.S. oil near $64 per barrel is still showing pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the performance of U.S. oil near $61.4 per barrel. If it falls below this line, there is a probability of a short-term head pattern. The trading end still maintains the idea of shorting on rallies in the medium term, and shorts are cautious in holding.On May 15, the day before Russia and Ukraine agreed to negotiate in Istanbul, Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order on the composition of the Russian and Ukrainian negotiating delegation on the 14th, with Russian presidential assistant Mekinsky as the head of the delegation. Analysts believe that on key issues such as Ukraines "demilitarization", whether Ukraine will give up joining NATO, and territorial ownership, Russia and Ukraine still have differences that are difficult to bridge, and both sides are unwilling to make concessions, so the prospects of this meeting are unpredictable. Alexander Bonov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the United States, believes that Russia proposed negotiations between the two sides but did not agree to a ceasefire. Its purpose is to allow the Russian army to continue to put pressure on Ukraine on the battlefield to promote talks.

China's State Refiners Avoid New Russian Oil Deals

Aria Thomas

Apr 07, 2022 09:37

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Sinopec (NYSE:SHI), Asia's largest refiner, CNOOC (NYSE:CEO), PetroChina, and Sinochem have all stayed out of the market for fresh Russian cargoes for May loadings, according to the people, who are all familiar with the matter but spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject.


Chinese state-owned firms do not want to be perceived as openly supporting Moscow by purchasing additional volumes of oil, according to two of the people, following Washington's ban on Russian oil last month and the European Union's sanctions on Russia's top exporter Rosneft and Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) Neft.


"SOEs are circumspect because their acts may be seen as reflecting the Chinese government, and none of them wants to be singled out as a buyer of Russian oil," one of the persons said.


Sinopec and Petrochina did not respond to requests for comment. Sinochem and CNOOC did not react quickly to a request for comment.


China and Russia have become more close in recent years, notably announcing a "no boundaries" alliance in February, and China has declined to denounce Russia's behavior in Ukraine or label it an invasion.


China has consistently criticized western sanctions against Russia, yet a top official said on Saturday that Beijing is not evading sanctions on Russia on purpose.


China, the world's biggest consumer of oil, is Russia's largest customer of crude, purchasing 1.6 million barrels per day, half of which is provided through pipelines under government-to-government contracts.


According to sources, China's state-owned enterprises would honor current and long-term contracts for Russian oil but will avoid new spot purchases.


A decline in China's imports of Russian oil could prompt the country's massive state refineries to seek alternative sources, escalating global supply concerns that pushed benchmark Brent oil prices to 14-year highs near $140 per barrel in early March, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.


Brent prices have subsequently fallen below $110 after the announcement by the US and its partners to release inventories from strategic reserves. [O/R]

'PRIORITY IS GIVEN TO RISK CONTROL AND COMPLIANCE'

Prior to the Ukraine crisis, Russia provided 15% of China's oil imports, half through the East Siberian and Atasu-Alashankou pipelines and the remainder via tankers based in Russia's Black Sea, Baltic Sea, and Far East ports.


Unipec, Sinopec's trading arm and a major Russian oil customer, has informed its worldwide teams in recent weeks at regular internal meetings about the dangers associated with dealing with Russian oil.


"The message and tone are clear - risk management and compliance take precedence above revenues," one individual informed on the discussions said.


"While Russian oil is significantly reduced, there are several complications, such as acquiring shipping insurance and payment snags."


Another source with a refinery that processes Russian crude on a regular basis said that his unit was instructed by Unipec to locate a substitute in order to maintain normal operations.


"With the exception of shipments that came in March and are scheduled to come in April, there will be no more Russian oil," this person said.


According to traders and shipping statistics, Unipec loaded 500,000 tonnes of Urals from Russia's Baltic ports in March, the greatest amount in months. The Urals were provided on spot and via a Rosneft export deal that Unipec won for loadings between September 2021 and March 2022.


Its most recent Urals deals involve two April-loading shipments totaling 200,000 tonnes from Russian producer Surgutneftegaz, according to two traders familiar with the transactions.


In comparison, India has reserved at least 14 million barrels, or approximately 2 million tonnes, of Russian oil since Feb. 24, compared to nearly 16 million barrels for the entire year of 2021, according to Reuters calculations.


Other state buyers, including PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinochem, have reportedly avoided Russia's ESPO blend for May loading.


Sinopec is experiencing payment difficulties even for previously signed agreements, as risk-averse state banks seek to reduce their exposure to Russian oil-related transactions, the second person added.

DEALS ARE KEPT 'UNDER WRAPS' BY TEAPOTS

Sanction fears have prompted some independent refiners known as teapots to disappear. They were once a vibrant group of customers consuming roughly a third of China's Russian oil imports.


"Trading in ESPO was extremely slow and secretive. Certain transactions are taking place, but specifics are being withheld. Nobody likes to be seen in public purchasing Russian oil "According to a frequent ESPO dealer.


To keep oil flowing, these agile refiners are experimenting with alternate payment methods such as cash transfers, payment upon delivery of cargo, and the use of Chinese money.


In May, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, and Gazprom Neft, as well as independent producers represented by Swiss trader Paramount Energy, are set to transport a record 3.3 million tonnes of ESPO from Kozmino port.