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Real-time News
1. UBS: The Fed is expected to raise its inflation forecast, with most members believing that rate cuts are not advisable before 2028. The mid-range dot plot may show one rate cut in 2028, but the policy stance will remain tight. 2. Goldman Sachs: Warsh may not submit his personal dot plot forecast. The mid-range dot plot is expected to show interest rates unchanged in 2026, with the final forecast still showing one rate cut each in 2027 and 2028. The 2026 economic forecast may show a slight decrease in GDP growth and unemployment, and a significant upward revision in inflation. 3. Barclays: The latest dot plot may reflect higher inflation expectations and a more cautious policy stance, namely, keeping interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, only one rate cut in 2027, and remaining on hold in 2028. 4. Jefferies: Warsh clearly stated at his Senate hearing that he disagreed with forward guidance. This will be the biggest change, specifically manifested in a shorter FOMC statement and fewer details on the SEP. 5. Capital Economics: It is expected that Warsh will not present his own interest rate forecasts, but he will still be asked about his views at the press conference. 6. JPMorgan Chase: It is expected that Warsh will submit his personal forecasts; otherwise, it would appear as if he were expressing a strong dissent against the committee he leads. 7. TD Securities: It is expected that Warsh will not submit his personal dot plot forecasts as a strategic move to minimize the hawkish signals that the June dot plot might release. 8. Bank of America: It is expected that Warsh will not submit his personal forecasts, as he does not believe in forward guidance. Economic growth forecasts may be lowered to 2.1%, inflation will be significantly revised upward, and unemployment rate forecasts may be slightly lowered or remain unchanged. 9. Rabobank: It is expected that the risks are skewed towards more stubborn inflation, fewer rate cuts, or even rate hikes, rather than a rapid improvement. Optimistic expectations have failed to materialize. 10. Nordea: It is expected that the dot plot will no longer include the rate cut scenario anticipated in March, and there may even be some calls for rate hikes. 11. Bank of New York Mellon: Expects a slightly hawkish adjustment to the dot plot, with the median forecast likely to remove the previous prediction of one rate cut before the end of 2026. 12. Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO): Expects a significant hawkish shift to the dot plot. Several rate hikes are projected for 2026, but the median still indicates no change.On June 18th, Vuk Vukovic, Chief Investment Officer of hedge fund Oraclum Capital, stated that the key issue right now is not inflation or interest rates, but politics. He pointed out that when Warsh took office, inflation was accelerating—CPI reached 4.2% and PPI reached 6.5%, which limited the Federal Reserves room to fulfill its previous promises of interest rate cuts. However, recent easing of geopolitical tensions, especially the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, has pushed down oil prices, providing Warsh with a breather. Vukovic predicts that Warsh is more likely to emphasize this positive factor rather than issue warnings about inflation. "I dont think he will release any hawkish signals at this meeting," he wrote. "The most likely scenario is a dovish start to his term, to get off to a good start." Logically, if Warsh abandons providing rigid forward guidance, the market will turn to other sources of signals, and the weight of government trade, foreign, and economic policies will increase. The political gravity surrounding this new chairman may point to a more dovish tone to reassure the market and maintain economic momentum. Whether this judgment is correct will be the first major test of Warshs communication strategy.U.S. officials: The meeting in Switzerland this weekend will be crucial for observing progress in negotiations with Iran.The "Stay On" Camp: 1. Moodys: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a rate cut unlikely in the short term. Holding rates steady this year is the baseline scenario. If inflation expectations continue to rise, a rate hike may be the next step. 2. Nomura: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a reduced likelihood of a rate cut in the short term. Rates are likely to remain unchanged in 2026. 3. JPMorgan Chase: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and for the remainder of the year to remain unchanged. The policy stance is likely to shift clearly from accommodative to neutral. 4. Wells Fargo: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. A rate hike would require evidence of a significantly overheated labor market or a further deterioration in the inflation outlook. It is difficult to find justification for any action at this stage or in the foreseeable future. 5. BNY Mellon: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The statement is expected to suggest two-way risks to interest rates. The Fed is expected to remove its 2026 rate cut expectations, and there will be no rate cuts or hikes this year. Rate Cut Camp: 1. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely removes its previous forward guidance hinting at rate cuts; short-term rate hikes are unlikely, with rate cuts expected in June and December 2027. 2. UBS: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely to formally abandon its dovish stance; still believes the Feds next move will be rate cuts, with 25 basis point cuts expected in March and June 2027. 3. Citigroup: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but with easing tensions in the Middle East driving down oil prices and a weakening labor market, expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. 4. Commerzbank: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely abandons its dovish language. Rate cuts are expected to begin around mid-next year, accumulating to 75 basis point cuts by the end of 2027. Rate Hike Camp: 1. Capital Economics: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a high probability of two "insurance rate hikes" in December and early next year. 2. BNP Paribas: Expects the Fed to raise rates little before the November midterm elections, with the first rate hike likely in December at the earliest, and at a more moderate pace than in 2022. 3. Deutsche Bank: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, maintaining its baseline assessment of keeping rates unchanged for the long term, but the risk of future rate hikes is rising. 4. PGIM: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with three rate hikes this year to curb overheating, three rate cuts in 2027, and one more in 2028, ultimately reaching a rate of 3.375%. Others: 1. Barclays: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with forward guidance wording likely to be removed from the statement to reduce implications for future rate cuts. 2. Bank of America: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with the statement likely to remove any mention of an accommodative bias and potentially adjust its description of job growth. 3. ANZ: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with the statement likely to remove any accommodative wording and reaffirm its commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. 4. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial, not because of policy changes, but because of forward guidance. 5. Investment management firm MFS: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, potentially indicating a neutral monetary policy stance. Warsh may also make some changes, such as ceasing the use of the dot plot and reducing press conferences.U.S. official: We will take some steps to build trust and see if we can reach an agreement.
