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Futures News, December 31st: Asian diesel supply is ample while demand is weak, suggesting further downside potential for Singapore diesel prices in the short term. Domestic diesel demand is entering a seasonal decline, with a predominantly bearish sentiment. While domestic diesel prices are expected to fall further in the short term, high procurement costs will provide support, potentially limiting the decline compared to Singapore prices. Therefore, short-term diesel export arbitrage will likely remain low or even inverted.December 31st - In recent years, the central government has introduced numerous policies to reduce or adjust real estate taxes, covering three major taxes: deed tax, personal income tax, and value-added tax. According to calculations by the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, the implementation of these tax reduction policies could reduce housing transactions nationwide by approximately 100 billion yuan annually. From the perspective of homebuyers and sellers, these tax reductions are not merely symbolic discounts of a few thousand yuan for ordinary families; they represent substantial cash relief ranging from 100,000 to 500,000 yuan. For homebuyers in first-tier cities looking to upgrade their homes, the tax reduction could even cover two to three years worth of living expenses.On December 31, the Shenzhen Branch of the Peoples Bank of China disclosed an administrative penalty notice, stating that Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank was warned and fined for violating account management regulations and financial statistics regulations. In response, a representative of Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank told the Securities Times that the administrative penalty notice was a result of the Shenzhen Branch of the Peoples Bank of Chinas handling of issues discovered during an inspection prior to November 2022. The bank took this matter very seriously, earnestly implemented all regulatory requirements, and optimized relevant processes and systems in 2023, completing the rectification. The bank has learned a profound lesson and will continue to strengthen internal control and compliance, regularly review processes and systems, adhere to the principles of compliant operation and prudent development, effectively prevent risks, and continuously improve its operational management level and service quality.According to the latest shareholding structure, the National Commercial Bank of the UAE has sufficient room for foreign ownership in the bank, allowing it to hold at least 51% of the shares.On December 31, the State Financial Regulatory Commission (SFC) revised the "Guidelines for Risk Management of Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans," resulting in the "Measures for the Management of Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans." An official from the relevant department of the SFC answered reporters questions on related issues. The official stated that merger and acquisition transactions are large-scale and time-sensitive, placing significant financial pressure on acquiring entities. To better meet the financing needs of merger and acquisition transactions, the "Measures," while introducing equity participation-type merger and acquisition loans, raise the upper limit of the proportion of controlling merger and acquisition loans in the transaction price from 60% to 70%, and extend the term from seven years to ten years, reasonably optimizing the conditions for merger and acquisition loans and providing financing convenience for merger and acquisition transactions.

Can the S&P 500 Still Reach 4300?

Steven Zhao

Mar 01, 2023 15:55


The Revision was carried on

Using the Elliott Wave Principle over several weeks, we were able to effectively monitor the highs and lows of the S&P 500 (SPX) (EWP). As a result, we discovered in our most recent update from two weeks ago that, "Thus, unless the SPX falls below Friday's bottom at $4060, we see no reason not to anticipate $4260-4295. Sorry there was no update last week, as I was on a vacation. The gauge will then likely retrace for several weeks before making a recovery to the optimal price of $4395+/-25.


Sadly, the $4060 low, which might have served as a stop loss, did not hold, and the index fell further until it reached a bottom of $3943 last Friday. Therefore, even though the EWP can be used to make many accurate predictions, nobody can always anticipate everything. Because of this, all we can do is "predict, watch, and modify as needed". We expected $4060 to remain stable. We kept an eye on it and discovered that it did not, so we adjusted our initial projections to the EWP figure depicted in Figure 1 below. So let me clarify.

When support fails, an alternative EWP option emerges

The recovery from the December bottom was not a five-wave impulse structure based on the standard Fibonacci sequence (SFFIS). Quite the opposite. When we expect a fifth surge higher, the market falters and falls short, just like all rises we've seen since 2022. As a result, we continue to work with (possible) a-b-c structures, which are much less trustworthy than the SFFIS. Welcome to Super Cycle IV, the fourth cycle in this instance. In addition, an SFFIS is frequently present if we anticipate a C-wave recovery off the December bottom.


However, the rise can only be classified as five waves if the latest "sell-off," which has been rather orderly and overlapping, is classified as an Expanding Ending Diagonal (EED) C-wave. However, because they frequently travel in contiguous a-b-c patterns and do not have as precise (Fib-based) principles as an SFFIS, diagonals are unstable. An ED can basically do whatever it wishes as long as W-3 is not the smallest and W-4 does not extend below the commencement of W-3, which is the conclusion of W-2. The EWP regulations for the EED are shown in Figure 1 above.


Thus, regrettably, with last week's extended slide into the lower end of support, we are left with two less-than-ideal tallies since the December lows: an EED vs. a bigger a-b-c. To see an alternative a-b-c, refer to figure 2 below. Both EWP numbers are far from optimal and have their problems. Sadly, this makes it challenging to express a high level of trust in regard to our main anticipation.


Not my problem. Simply put, that is the setting we are in. For additional hints to determine the likelihood of each option, we at Intelligent Investing also inform our Premium Members on a variety of other signs and plots, such as market width, trends, and mood.

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