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At the Tokyo open, the USD/JPY bulls pick up speed and aim for 138.00

Alina Haynes

Jul 14, 2022 12:00

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The USD/JPY pair is now trading at 138.00, up 0.44 percent from the day's beginning price of 137.28 and reaching a high of 137.96. The dollar is benefiting from central bank divergence at play.

 

The US dollar hit a 20-year high, according to the DXY index, which compares the dollar to a basket of currencies. After figures on Wednesday showed that US consumer price inflation hit a 40-and-a-half-year high in June, the euro dropped below parity. As gasoline and food costs continued to rise, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 3% last month, above the 1.1 percent forecast by the experts surveyed by Reuters.

 

However, "several Districts reported growing symptoms of a slowdown in demand, and contacts in five Districts voiced worries about the increased probability of a recession," according to data from the Fed's Beige Book on regional economic conditions. Bostic, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said that "everything is on the table" for the July policy decision, which may indicate a 100bp increase. The rising rate of inflation worries him.

 

Rates on the US bond market fluctuated after inflation data that was greater than expected. The long end increased while the short end decreased. The US 2-10yr curve is currently 22bps inverted, according to analysts at Westpac, "given the expectation of aggressive Fed tightening and the risks to the long-term economic outlook." While yields on 10-year government bonds declined from 2.95 percent to 2.90 percent, rates on 2-year bonds rose from 3.05 percent to 3.21 percent before leveling off at 3.13 percent.

 

Additionally, JPY net short positions increased significantly last week. The hawkish stances of other central banks have prompted speculation that the BoJ may have been obliged to alter its YCC policy as early as last month's meeting, according to Rabobank analysts. The BoJ kept its dovish approach, although there will probably be more talk of a shift in the coming months. This has given the JPY some support, along with inflows into safe havens.


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