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On May 5, according to CMEs "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 63.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 35.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.1%.Spot gold opened basically flat on Monday, currently trading at $3,243.89 an ounce.1. Chechen leader: Ukrainian troops try to return to Kursk. 2. Temporary restrictions imposed at Vnukovo Airport in Moscow, Russia. 3. Ukrainian military: 69 drones launched by Russia were shot down overnight. 4. Putin said he has been considering the issue of succession, but the final choice will be made by the Russian people. 5. According to Interfax: Russian President Putin said that we have enough strength and means to push the conflict with Ukraine to a reasonable end. 6. According to Ukrainian Pravda: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that in the past 24 hours, the Russian army lost two fighter planes, 1,340 soldiers were killed or wounded, and 11 tanks.On May 5, Japans attitude towards using U.S. debt as a negotiating tool with the United States reversed again. According to Nikkei News, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Sunday (May 4) that Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to gain an advantage in trade negotiations with the United States, and Japan does not consider the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds to be a tool for Japan-U.S. negotiations. Katsunobu Kato said last Friday that although Japan would not easily sell its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, they were a "card" for negotiations with the United States on trade issues; he overturned this statement at a press conference on Sunday. The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that as of the end of March, Japan held $1.27 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, most of which were U.S. Treasury bonds. Foreign exchange reserves can be used to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In April, Katsunobu Kato ruled out the possibility of using Japans holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as a negotiating tool.On May 5, the Israeli Prime Ministers Office issued a statement on the evening of May 4 local time, saying that Israel will retaliate against the Houthi armed forces and their ally Iran in response to the missile attack on Tel Avivs Ben-Gurion International Airport earlier that day. The statement said that the attack by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen "originated from Iran" and Israel will choose the time and place to take action against Iran, the force behind the Houthi armed forces. Iran has not responded to this yet.

As the Fed confirms the disinflationary process, the USD/CAD exchange rate may fall to 1.3250

Alina Haynes

Feb 02, 2023 16:05

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The USD/CAD pair resumed its two-day losing run after slipping below 1.3270 in Asia. Following two days of declining US inflation, the Canadian dollar fell on Wednesday.

 

The US Manufacturing PMI (Jan) dropped for a third consecutive month to 47.4, below the consensus estimate of 48.0 and the prior reading of 48.4. The Index of New Orders for Manufactured Goods, which indicates future demand, decreased to 42.5 from 46.1 and 45.1. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated in his comments that consumer spending has slowed significantly and that the central bank will now focus on labor cost balance. The US Employment Cost Index (Q4) fell by 1%.

 

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have decreased for three consecutive months, while economic activity and consumer spending have slowed, signaling deflation. Powell stated, "Can now for the first time announce, 'The disinflationary process has begun.'"

 

The market participants' risk appetite has raised the demand for risky assets. After a solid performance on Wednesday, S&P500 futures increased in the Asian morning. The US Dollar Index (DXY) found limits following a decline to about 100.80 amid risk-on market mood. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has surpassed 3.41 percent.

 

Monthly GDP (Nov) data for the Canadian dollar were 0.1%, above the consensus forecast of flat. Since the Bank of Canada (BoC) ceased policy tightening after increasing interest rates to 4.50 percent, the Canadian economy has not declined on a monthly basis.

 

After plunging to nearly $76, the price of oil is recovering. Black gold dipped on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported 4.14 million oil inventories for the week ending January 27. Because Canada is a major oil exporter to the United States, lower oil prices influence the Canadian Dollar.


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