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Russian officials say one person was killed in an attack by Ukraine on the Russian-controlled Luhansk region.On August 30th, Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, wrote that Fed Chairman Warsh quelled some concerns about his inflation-fighting strategy, but also laid the groundwork for a potentially bigger test three weeks later. A Fed rate hike could anger the White House weeks before the midterm elections. Holding rates steady could reignite the doubts quelled by his speech. Two points in Warshs Friday speech particularly suggest a Fed rate hike next month: first, Warsh found it difficult to call current financial conditions restrictive; second, the relatively positive inflation data over the summer did not convince him that the underlying trend was improving. Prior to Friday, the Feds default stance was to hold rates steady unless the data was sufficient to support action. Former Fed Vice Chairman Cohn stated that Warshs speech reversed this logic. "He has changed his previous assumptions; now hell raise rates unless the data shows no need." This means the final decision will depend on developments before the September meeting, especially the August CPI data released on September 11th. Cohn stated that the Fed should not raise interest rates if the data indicates that no action is necessary; however, strong data could weaken the argument that inflation is falling toward the Feds 2% target.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Overnight, the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck facilities in Russias Oryol and Rostov regions used for storing, preparing, and launching attack drones. The Ukrainian forces also carried out strikes on a military airfield in Yeysk and in the Black Sea region, as well as a long-range strike on an oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast that generates millions of dollars in revenue monthly for Russias war budget.August 30 - According to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, a 5.9-magnitude earthquake struck the sea near the Kermadec Islands of New Zealand at approximately 21:02 local time on August 30. The epicenter was located at approximately 30.0697 degrees south latitude and 177.1853 degrees west longitude, with a focal depth of about 35 kilometers. There are currently no reports of casualties or property damage.On August 30th, NASAs $4.3 billion telescope is scheduled to launch on Sunday, embarking on a 5- to 10-year mission to observe some of the universes most peculiar phenomena. NASAs Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket at 7:26 a.m. local time from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The launch will place the spacecraft into orbit at its final destination, aiming to operate approximately 1 million miles from Earth, and begin observing the skies as early as December. The Roman Space Telescope is specifically designed to explore some of the universes most perplexing and mysterious forces. It will attempt to record how dark matter and dark energy influence distant stars and galaxies and help scientists answer some fundamental questions about how the universe is expanding.

After A Fed Rise, The U.S. Banks Stress Index Might Deteriorate

Aria Thomas

Jun 17, 2022 11:09

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An indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking sector may be exhibiting symptoms of strain as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate rise path heightens economic pain forecasts.


According to Refinitiv data, the so-called FRA-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the U.S. three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, jumped to 29.50 basis points on Thursday, its widest level since May 23. The value was -11.66 basis points earlier in the week.


Widely regarded as a barometer for banking sector risk, a wider spread indicates that interbank lending risk has increased.


The recent increase in the margin between forward rate agreements and overnight index swap rates is worrisome, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market analyst Jordan Jackson. "As the Fed becomes more hawkish, recession fears increase, hence boosting the underlying credit risk."


The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its largest rise since 1994. Markets have been rocked by the prospect of more dramatic tightening, and fears of a future recession have intensified.


This month, the central bank also started letting bonds to expire off its more than $8 trillion balance sheet without replacing them, a procedure known as quantitative tightening that Jackson warned may possibly deplete the financial system's liquidity.


As the world's biggest holder of U.S. government debt lowers its market presence, this sentiment is shared by other investors who are concerned that market conditions may deteriorate.


"Now that quantitative tightening has formally begun, reserve draining has been rather steady over the last several months," Jackson said, adding that he expects the FRA-OIS disparity to become much wider.


Wall Street also perceives an increase in the likelihood of default by large banks.


On Thursday, credit default swap (CDS) spreads for JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) were nearing two-year highs.