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August 6th - It is reported that several major cities are planning to introduce measures to boost housing consumption. Chengdu is focusing on optimizing supply, increasing demand, reducing inventory, and stabilizing expectations in its housing sales policies. These include optimizing supply to promote a balance between supply and demand and supporting housing consumption to meet diverse needs. Currently, these policies are under internal review and will be released publicly as soon as they are finalized. Hefei is working with relevant departments to coordinate and study a collaborative action plan to promote "large-scale consumption," in line with national policy guidance. Wuhan is actively preparing policy research and plans to improve its policy toolbox in the second half of the year, focusing on linking the primary and secondary housing markets, reducing commercial and office space inventory, and supplying high-quality housing. Nanjing will optimize relevant policies and measures in a timely manner based on market realities, increase the supply of diversified "good houses," and further promote activities such as "trade-in" for housing consumption to effectively release various rigid and improved housing demands from residents. Additionally, major cities such as Hangzhou, Qingdao, Chongqing, and Jinan have also indicated that they will continue to prepare and dynamically optimize policies to stabilize the real estate market.On August 6th, Federal Reserve Chair Mary Daly stated that she "fully supports" the Feds decision last week to keep interest rates unchanged. She said that with inflation significantly above the 2% target, the Fed needs to gather more data to determine what policy measures to take in the future. Daly indicated that the Fed "still has a lot of information to gather" before the September monetary policy meeting to determine whether current inflation is driven by supply shocks that will subside over time or is forming a more persistent inflationary environment. Daly stated that the Fed should "closely monitor the incoming information while being fully prepared to act if necessary." Daly is not currently a voting member of the FOMC. In her remarks, she expressed concern about how the public would react to a new round of inflation, noting that if inflation momentum strengthens again, the Fed may need to take aggressive measures to bring price pressures back to the target level.August 6th - The first mandatory national standard for cosmetics, "General Requirements for Cosmetic Safety," drafted by the National Medical Products Administration, was released today and will officially take effect in 2028. The "Cosmetic Hygiene Standard" issued in 1987 will be simultaneously repealed. An Fudong, head of the drafting group for the national standard "General Requirements for Cosmetic Safety," explained that based on differences in risk related to exposure routes, user groups, and application sites, the new national standard imposes stricter standards on childrens cosmetics and cosmetics used around the eyes, eyelashes, and lips.Hong Kong stocks opened lower and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by more than 2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.7%.Shanghai Auntie (02589.HK) shares in Hong Kong rose more than 9%, with a trading volume of over 690,000 lots.

After A Fed Rise, The U.S. Banks Stress Index Might Deteriorate

Aria Thomas

Jun 17, 2022 11:09

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An indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking sector may be exhibiting symptoms of strain as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate rise path heightens economic pain forecasts.


According to Refinitiv data, the so-called FRA-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the U.S. three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, jumped to 29.50 basis points on Thursday, its widest level since May 23. The value was -11.66 basis points earlier in the week.


Widely regarded as a barometer for banking sector risk, a wider spread indicates that interbank lending risk has increased.


The recent increase in the margin between forward rate agreements and overnight index swap rates is worrisome, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market analyst Jordan Jackson. "As the Fed becomes more hawkish, recession fears increase, hence boosting the underlying credit risk."


The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its largest rise since 1994. Markets have been rocked by the prospect of more dramatic tightening, and fears of a future recession have intensified.


This month, the central bank also started letting bonds to expire off its more than $8 trillion balance sheet without replacing them, a procedure known as quantitative tightening that Jackson warned may possibly deplete the financial system's liquidity.


As the world's biggest holder of U.S. government debt lowers its market presence, this sentiment is shared by other investors who are concerned that market conditions may deteriorate.


"Now that quantitative tightening has formally begun, reserve draining has been rather steady over the last several months," Jackson said, adding that he expects the FRA-OIS disparity to become much wider.


Wall Street also perceives an increase in the likelihood of default by large banks.


On Thursday, credit default swap (CDS) spreads for JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) were nearing two-year highs.