EUR/USD 1.14859
0.096%
Gold 4376.53
0.805%
Oil 95.469
-1.085%
USD/JPY 156.726
0.486%
GBP/USD 1.33935
0.269%
GBP/JPY 209.919
0.759%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
September 21st - On September 20th, Germany held two local elections: one in the capital Berlin and the other in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Megrenburg-Western Po). The latest exit polls indicate that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to win 37% of the vote in the Mecklenburg-Western Po state election; the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) in the ruling coalition is projected to win 35.5%; and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Chancellor Merz, is projected to win 5.5%, barely crossing the threshold to enter the state parliament—the CDUs worst performance in any state election since 1949. With other major parties refusing to cooperate, the AfDs chances of forming a government in Mecklenburg-Western Po are extremely slim. However, this far-right party has become the largest party in the state parliaments of both German states in the past two weeks. In the Berlin city council elections, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is projected to win 20% of the vote; the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to win 12%; the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to win 16%, increasing its seat count; and the Left Party is projected to win 24.5%, currently leading. Germany has 16 states, and Berlin is one of three city-states. In the eastern Saxony-Anhalt state elections on September 6th, Merzs CDU suffered a crushing defeat, with its vote share plummeting to around 17%; the AfD won approximately 44% of the vote, becoming the largest party in the state.The U.S. Mission to Saudi Arabia: Due to the ongoing security situation in Saudi Arabia, all U.S. government employees working in Saudi Arabia now require special authorization to travel to the cities of Taif and Yanbu for both official and private purposes.German Chancellor Merz: We need determination, resolve, and patience; as party leader and chancellor, I am ready to do that. I take responsibility because I want to push the country forward.German Chancellor Merz: Germany must become a country that ushers in a new era. We cannot go back to the "good old days".German Chancellor Merz: Change brings challenges and new uncertainties. We need change.

After A Fed Rise, The U.S. Banks Stress Index Might Deteriorate

Aria Thomas

Jun 17, 2022 11:09

14.png


An indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking sector may be exhibiting symptoms of strain as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate rise path heightens economic pain forecasts.


According to Refinitiv data, the so-called FRA-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the U.S. three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, jumped to 29.50 basis points on Thursday, its widest level since May 23. The value was -11.66 basis points earlier in the week.


Widely regarded as a barometer for banking sector risk, a wider spread indicates that interbank lending risk has increased.


The recent increase in the margin between forward rate agreements and overnight index swap rates is worrisome, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market analyst Jordan Jackson. "As the Fed becomes more hawkish, recession fears increase, hence boosting the underlying credit risk."


The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its largest rise since 1994. Markets have been rocked by the prospect of more dramatic tightening, and fears of a future recession have intensified.


This month, the central bank also started letting bonds to expire off its more than $8 trillion balance sheet without replacing them, a procedure known as quantitative tightening that Jackson warned may possibly deplete the financial system's liquidity.


As the world's biggest holder of U.S. government debt lowers its market presence, this sentiment is shared by other investors who are concerned that market conditions may deteriorate.


"Now that quantitative tightening has formally begun, reserve draining has been rather steady over the last several months," Jackson said, adding that he expects the FRA-OIS disparity to become much wider.


Wall Street also perceives an increase in the likelihood of default by large banks.


On Thursday, credit default swap (CDS) spreads for JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) were nearing two-year highs.


Suggestion