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South Korean stocks rose on Wednesday, marking their third consecutive day of gains, primarily driven by optimism surrounding AI, with chip stocks surging. The KOSPI index jumped over 4% to 6635 points, its highest level since August 5th. Kiwoom Securities analyst Han Ji-young stated, "With the strong demand for AI infrastructure demonstrated by CoreWeave and Supermicro being validated, capital inflows into the semiconductor sector and domestic AI-related stocks in South Korea are expected to improve." Among heavyweight stocks, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rose over 7%, while LG Energy Solution gained approximately 3%. Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors rose approximately 2% and 1.5%, respectively.Hong Kong-listed tech stocks weakened amid volatility, with Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) falling more than 3%, Kuaishou (01024.HK) and Baidu (09888.HK) falling more than 2%, and Alibaba (09988.HK) and JD.com (09618.HK) following suit.On August 12th, Fan Gang, Vice President of the China Society for Economic System Reform and Director of the National Economic Research Institute, delivered an economic speech at the 2026 Boao Real Estate Forum. Fan Gang stated that the Chinese economy is undergoing a structural adjustment more in line with market economy principles, and the real estate market has seen relatively rapid price clearing, with the bottoming process potentially faster than Japans in the past. From the demand side, Chinas long-standing structural problem of "emphasizing supply over demand" is being addressed. Fan Gang pointed out that the current "15th Five-Year Plan" has regarded market demand as the scarcest resource, and macroeconomics is essentially demand-driven. Consumption concepts are also undergoing positive changes, with the younger generation of tech elites beginning to focus on housing quality, and luxury homes in major cities becoming the main sales driver, marking the beginning of a new economic growth logic. "The Chinese economy is in a new stage of development that is more market-oriented and more in line with market principles," Fan Gang noted.August 12 - According to the website of the China Maritime Safety Administration, the Shanwei Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning that live-fire exercises will be conducted in parts of the South China Sea from 5:00 to 18:00 on August 12, and entry is prohibited.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Overnight gold market: London spot gold -0.50%, SHFE gold -0.28%. Gold prices declined slightly as the market focused on tonights US CPI data. Combined with the decline in gasoline prices in July and cooling housing inflation, July inflation data is likely to show a month-on-month decrease. The current market expectation is a 3.5% year-on-year increase in July CPI and a 2.5% year-on-year increase in core CPI. If the inflation data is lower than expected, concerns about interest rate hikes may cool again, potentially increasing gold price volatility. The data itself is full of uncertainty and speculative trading, and gold prices are treated cautiously before the data release. Investors are paying attention to the performance of gold prices in the upper range. 2. Geopolitical news: According to Wall Street News, an advisor to Irans Supreme Leader stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until Irans conditions are met; US officials stated that the US military fired on a ship attempting to break through the US blockade of Iranian ports; although Pakistan released optimistic signals on Tuesday that the US and Iran were close to reaching some kind of agreement, the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still faces significant obstacles.

After A Fed Rise, The U.S. Banks Stress Index Might Deteriorate

Aria Thomas

Jun 17, 2022 11:09

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An indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking sector may be exhibiting symptoms of strain as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate rise path heightens economic pain forecasts.


According to Refinitiv data, the so-called FRA-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the U.S. three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, jumped to 29.50 basis points on Thursday, its widest level since May 23. The value was -11.66 basis points earlier in the week.


Widely regarded as a barometer for banking sector risk, a wider spread indicates that interbank lending risk has increased.


The recent increase in the margin between forward rate agreements and overnight index swap rates is worrisome, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market analyst Jordan Jackson. "As the Fed becomes more hawkish, recession fears increase, hence boosting the underlying credit risk."


The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its largest rise since 1994. Markets have been rocked by the prospect of more dramatic tightening, and fears of a future recession have intensified.


This month, the central bank also started letting bonds to expire off its more than $8 trillion balance sheet without replacing them, a procedure known as quantitative tightening that Jackson warned may possibly deplete the financial system's liquidity.


As the world's biggest holder of U.S. government debt lowers its market presence, this sentiment is shared by other investors who are concerned that market conditions may deteriorate.


"Now that quantitative tightening has formally begun, reserve draining has been rather steady over the last several months," Jackson said, adding that he expects the FRA-OIS disparity to become much wider.


Wall Street also perceives an increase in the likelihood of default by large banks.


On Thursday, credit default swap (CDS) spreads for JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) were nearing two-year highs.


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