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On May 19th, Navellier & Associates analyst Louis Navellier stated in a report that interest rates have become extremely sensitive to energy prices, and should fall significantly once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He noted that upward inflationary pressures will persist until then, adding that any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will be delayed until the recent surge in energy inflation subsides. Navellier stated, "If the Strait of Hormuz is still not open a month from now, energy prices will almost certainly rise, pushing up inflation and interest rates." He also stated that this would pose problems for the US midterm election cycle, which historically tends to trigger downward market volatility. "Trump is under pressure to resolve the Iran issue as quickly as possible," he said.On May 19th, it was learned from the National Bureau of Data Science that my country is proactively developing a series of cutting-edge standards in the data field. It is understood that relevant units have researched and formulated 12 national guiding technical documents for a nationwide integrated computing power network, including those related to computing power grid connection and pooling; compiled 7 national standards for high-quality dataset construction, format, classification, and quality evaluation; and initiated over 100 research projects on ontology models and computing-power collaboration, laying a solid data foundation for the development of artificial intelligence in my country. Liu Liehong, Director of the National Bureau of Data Science, stated that by 2026, the National Data Standardization Technical Committee will research and formulate no fewer than 80 national standards and technical documents, release no fewer than 30 key standards, and promote the establishment of 2-3 international standards.On May 19th, Thierry Weizmann, global FX and interest rate strategist at Macquarie Group, stated in a report that even if the Federal Reserve takes action hinting at a shift to a neutral stance in June, it may not be enough to stabilize inflation expectations and long-term Treasury yields. He pointed out that the currently slightly upward-sloping overnight index swap forward curve only reflects one rate hike in 2026, and for the Fed to quell inflation concerns, its rhetoric must be more hawkish than what the curve already reflects. He indicated that between now and June 6th, the Fed will have a series of short speeches, at which time it may have the opportunity to decisively shift its rhetoric to a "hawkish" stance.The UKs three-month ILO unemployment rate for March, the number of unemployment benefit claims for April, and the unemployment rate will be released in ten minutes.On May 19, the Ministry of Water Resources held a rolling consultation and assessment of the national rainfall and flood situation, and arranged and deployed flood prevention work. In accordance with the "Emergency Response Procedures for Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention of the Ministry of Water Resources," the Ministry activated a Level IV emergency response for flood prevention at 12:00 on May 19 for seven provinces and autonomous regions, including Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hainan. Local water resources departments and river basin management agencies are required to closely monitor the development and changes in rainfall and flood conditions, strengthen monitoring, forecasting, and early warning, enhance consultation and assessment and emergency duty, scientifically and accurately implement flood control scheduling of water projects, strengthen the safe passage of small and medium-sized reservoirs and projects under construction through the flood season, focus on preventing floods in small and medium-sized rivers and flash floods that may be triggered by short-duration heavy rainfall, promptly issue early warning information and urge local authorities to organize the evacuation of people to safe areas, implement emergency response measures for disaster warnings, and make every effort to ensure the safety of peoples lives and property.

After A Fed Rise, The U.S. Banks Stress Index Might Deteriorate

Aria Thomas

Jun 17, 2022 11:09

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An indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking sector may be exhibiting symptoms of strain as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate rise path heightens economic pain forecasts.


According to Refinitiv data, the so-called FRA-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the U.S. three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, jumped to 29.50 basis points on Thursday, its widest level since May 23. The value was -11.66 basis points earlier in the week.


Widely regarded as a barometer for banking sector risk, a wider spread indicates that interbank lending risk has increased.


The recent increase in the margin between forward rate agreements and overnight index swap rates is worrisome, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market analyst Jordan Jackson. "As the Fed becomes more hawkish, recession fears increase, hence boosting the underlying credit risk."


The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its largest rise since 1994. Markets have been rocked by the prospect of more dramatic tightening, and fears of a future recession have intensified.


This month, the central bank also started letting bonds to expire off its more than $8 trillion balance sheet without replacing them, a procedure known as quantitative tightening that Jackson warned may possibly deplete the financial system's liquidity.


As the world's biggest holder of U.S. government debt lowers its market presence, this sentiment is shared by other investors who are concerned that market conditions may deteriorate.


"Now that quantitative tightening has formally begun, reserve draining has been rather steady over the last several months," Jackson said, adding that he expects the FRA-OIS disparity to become much wider.


Wall Street also perceives an increase in the likelihood of default by large banks.


On Thursday, credit default swap (CDS) spreads for JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) were nearing two-year highs.