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Oil prices fell following the US-Iran peace agreement, causing cruise line operators shares to rise in pre-market trading. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH.N) and Royal Caribbean International rose 4%, while Carnival Cruise Line (CCL.N) gained approximately 3%.On June 15th, it was reported that the secondary market trading price of the Fullgoal ChiNext ETF (ticker symbol: Fullgoal ChiNext ETF; fund code: 159971), managed by Fullgoal Fund Management Co., Ltd., has been significantly higher than its Indicative Indicative Net Asset Value (IOPV), exhibiting a substantial premium. To protect investors interests, trading in this fund will be suspended from the opening of the market on June 16, 2026, and will resume at 10:30 AM on the same day. Redemption services will continue as usual during the suspension period. If the premium in the secondary market trading price of this fund does not effectively decrease on June 16, 2026, the fund has the right to apply to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for temporary intraday trading suspension, extension of the suspension period, or continuous suspension to warn the market of the risk. Specific details will be announced at that time.June 15th - Lee Hardman of MUFG Bank stated in a report that despite the decline in energy prices following the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, the yen is unlikely to achieve a meaningful recovery. Short positions in the yen continued to increase ahead of the Bank of Japans policy decision on Tuesday. "The 25 basis point rate hike has already been fully priced in, so its unlikely to trigger a reversal of the yens weakness on its own, thus encouraging further increases in short yen positions," he said. He added that if energy prices continue to fall and bets on US rate hikes decrease, any further intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen will prove more effective.On June 15th, Agile Group Holdings Limited (01813.HK) announced the latest progress in its offshore debt restructuring. Over the past few months, the Company and members of the Noteholders Group, along with their respective advisors, have engaged in constructive dialogue to reach a consensus on the restructuring. The Company is pleased to announce that on June 15, 2026, it entered into a restructuring support agreement with certain initial participating creditors. These initial participating creditors include members of the Noteholders Group, who hold more than 26.1% of the total outstanding principal amount of the debt to be included in the restructuring. The restructuring support agreement outlines the terms of the restructuring. The proposed restructuring aims to: (i) provide the Company with a long-term path to stabilize its business; (ii) achieve a sustainable capital structure and enhance its net asset value; and (iii) protect the interests of all stakeholders and maximize value.June 15th - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazmir stated on Monday that the ECB has taken the first step in curbing price pressures, but it is increasingly clear that more action is needed. The ECB raised interest rates last Thursday for the first time in nearly three years, attempting to curb inflation before the surge in energy costs triggered by the US-Israel war against Iran spreads further throughout the Eurozone. In his article, Kazmir stated, "Now is not the time for complacency and hesitation. Higher energy costs are likely to persist for longer than many had hoped. Even with the recent peace agreement between the US and Iran, the damage inflicted on the Middle East cannot be erased overnight." He indicated that if the ECB does not act, a second wave of effects from rising energy prices will emerge. "We have taken the first step in curbing medium-term price pressures, but the task is not yet complete. Based on the information currently available, it is increasingly clear that monetary policy has much more to do."

After A Fed Rise, The U.S. Banks Stress Index Might Deteriorate

Aria Thomas

Jun 17, 2022 11:09

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An indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking sector may be exhibiting symptoms of strain as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate rise path heightens economic pain forecasts.


According to Refinitiv data, the so-called FRA-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the U.S. three-month forward rate agreement and the overnight index swap rate, jumped to 29.50 basis points on Thursday, its widest level since May 23. The value was -11.66 basis points earlier in the week.


Widely regarded as a barometer for banking sector risk, a wider spread indicates that interbank lending risk has increased.


The recent increase in the margin between forward rate agreements and overnight index swap rates is worrisome, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market analyst Jordan Jackson. "As the Fed becomes more hawkish, recession fears increase, hence boosting the underlying credit risk."


The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its largest rise since 1994. Markets have been rocked by the prospect of more dramatic tightening, and fears of a future recession have intensified.


This month, the central bank also started letting bonds to expire off its more than $8 trillion balance sheet without replacing them, a procedure known as quantitative tightening that Jackson warned may possibly deplete the financial system's liquidity.


As the world's biggest holder of U.S. government debt lowers its market presence, this sentiment is shared by other investors who are concerned that market conditions may deteriorate.


"Now that quantitative tightening has formally begun, reserve draining has been rather steady over the last several months," Jackson said, adding that he expects the FRA-OIS disparity to become much wider.


Wall Street also perceives an increase in the likelihood of default by large banks.


On Thursday, credit default swap (CDS) spreads for JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) were nearing two-year highs.


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