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On October 5th, Poland officially extended temporary border controls with Germany and Lithuania for six months, with the measures set to last until April 4, 2026. According to Polish media reports, Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kelwinski signed the decree on the 1st. At a press conference following the Munich Migration Conference in Germany on the 4th, he stated that Poland was unwilling to agree to any regulations regarding the resettlement of migrants within the EU. Poland has paid a high price for guarding the EUs external borders, with nearly 25,000 illegal crossings occurring on the Polish-Belarusian border this year. To curb illegal immigration, the Polish government implemented temporary controls on its western borders with Germany and northeastern borders with Lithuania for 30 days starting on July 7th, and later extended them until October 4th. Currently, Poland has 50 checkpoints on the Polish-German border and 13 on the Polish-Lithuanian border.On October 5th, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on a Russian media program that if the United States provides Ukraine with long-range and precision strike weapons and equipment, including Tomahawk missiles, it will destroy the positive momentum that has emerged in Russian-US relations. When asked whether he expects European leaders to pay attention to the signals he recently sent at the annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Putin also stated that he never aims to please others, but only states the facts truthfully, and that subsequent developments depend on the positions of those he addresses.On October 5th, local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Cairo Agreement can no longer serve as the basis for Irans cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and that Iran will announce new cooperation arrangements with the agency. Araghchi said, "New decisions must be made under the current circumstances. In my opinion, the Cairo Agreement is no longer applicable to the status quo." Araghchi emphasized that practice has proven that there is no alternative to diplomacy and negotiation in addressing Irans nuclear program.On October 5th, OPEC+ representatives stated that the group was close to reaching a principle agreement on another small production increase in November, continuing its efforts to regain market share in the global oil market. Delegates revealed ahead of a Sunday video conference that major member countries were expected to approve a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day, the same as the planned increase this month. Oil prices traded near a four-year low on Friday, a reminder that OPEC and its allies must strike a careful balance when restoring previously suspended production to an oversupplied market.Sources said that before the meeting, OPEC+ countries had reached an agreement in principle to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November.

AUD / JPY Nears 92.00 on Stronger-Than-Expected Aussie Retail Sales

Daniel Rogers

Feb 28, 2023 11:41

AUD:JPY.png 

 

The AUD / JPY has approached the immediate resistance level of 92.00 as the Australian Bureau of Statistics published Retail Sales (January) data that was better than expected. The 1.9% GDP growth rate was better than expected, coming in at 1.5%. In December, retail sales decreased by 3.9%.

 

At a moment when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and other policymakers are formulating a strategy to reduce inflationary pressures, encouraging data on retail demand will only make matters worse. Australian inflation has not yet hit its highest level despite the RBA raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.35 percent. The RBA's policy tightening cycle is not expected to come to a stop any time soon given the lack of data suggesting a slowdown in overall demand.

 

On Wednesday, when Australia's GDP and CPI are published, the cross will surge.

 

The fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to increase by 0.7%, up from 0.6% in the third quarter. On an annualized measure, Australia's GDP is expected to grow by 2.7%, up from 5.9% in the previous report.

 

The January CPI is expected to fall to 7.9% from 8.4%, in addition to the Australian GDP figures. RBA Governor Philip Lowe and other policymakers who are worried about Australia's persistent inflation will find relief from a reduction in monthly inflationary pressures.

 

The surprisingly dovish tone of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda is affecting the value of the Japanese Yen. From the perspective of BoJ Ueda, Japan's multi-decade high inflation is suitable to continue the expansionary policy to stimulate wages and domestic demand as a result of external forces.

 

Japan's yearly Retail Trade (Jan) increased to 6.3% from 4.0% and 3.8% in early Asia. The Japanese Yuan, however, was unable to benefit.


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