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On May 22, Nomura Securities predicted that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until 2026 due to rising inflation and weakening support for policy easing from Federal Reserve officials, reducing the likelihood of a near-term rate cut. "Incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh may still have the incentive to ease policy, but recent data and comments from Fed officials make us doubt his ability to convince a majority of the Federal Open Market Committee to support rate cuts," Nomura said in a report on May 21. The firm had previously projected 25-basis-point rate cuts in September and December of this year.According to the Financial Times, the French finance minister stated that countries cannot decide whether to release more oil reserves until they understand how long the conflict with Iran will last.According to the Financial Times, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) is seeking to reduce its $4 billion exposure to private equity-related loans.According to the Financial Times, the European film industry is urging EU regulators to review the deal between Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.O) and Paramount.On May 22nd, Nomura Securities analysts wrote in a report that NIO (NIO.N) needs to launch more popular models to further support its sales, market share, and profit margins. They stated that investors will be watching the performance of the ES9, which will be launched next Wednesday. Given the positive customer feedback in the ES9 pre-sale data, Nomura remains optimistic about the company and expects NIO to achieve sequential improvement in deliveries and financial data in the second half of this year. NIO will launch a five-seat version of the ES8 in the second half of the year and plans to launch three to five new models annually in the coming years. Nomura maintains its buy rating on NIO with a target price of $8.60. The stocks American Depositary Receipts closed at $5.60 yesterday.

AUD / JPY Nears 92.00 on Stronger-Than-Expected Aussie Retail Sales

Daniel Rogers

Feb 28, 2023 11:41

AUD:JPY.png 

 

The AUD / JPY has approached the immediate resistance level of 92.00 as the Australian Bureau of Statistics published Retail Sales (January) data that was better than expected. The 1.9% GDP growth rate was better than expected, coming in at 1.5%. In December, retail sales decreased by 3.9%.

 

At a moment when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and other policymakers are formulating a strategy to reduce inflationary pressures, encouraging data on retail demand will only make matters worse. Australian inflation has not yet hit its highest level despite the RBA raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.35 percent. The RBA's policy tightening cycle is not expected to come to a stop any time soon given the lack of data suggesting a slowdown in overall demand.

 

On Wednesday, when Australia's GDP and CPI are published, the cross will surge.

 

The fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to increase by 0.7%, up from 0.6% in the third quarter. On an annualized measure, Australia's GDP is expected to grow by 2.7%, up from 5.9% in the previous report.

 

The January CPI is expected to fall to 7.9% from 8.4%, in addition to the Australian GDP figures. RBA Governor Philip Lowe and other policymakers who are worried about Australia's persistent inflation will find relief from a reduction in monthly inflationary pressures.

 

The surprisingly dovish tone of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda is affecting the value of the Japanese Yen. From the perspective of BoJ Ueda, Japan's multi-decade high inflation is suitable to continue the expansionary policy to stimulate wages and domestic demand as a result of external forces.

 

Japan's yearly Retail Trade (Jan) increased to 6.3% from 4.0% and 3.8% in early Asia. The Japanese Yuan, however, was unable to benefit.


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