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On June 16th, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Lane stated that although the inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict have not yet fully materialized, the ECB must be prepared for them. Lane noted that despite the agreement reached between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have not simply returned to their pre-crisis trajectory. "Four months of high energy prices mean that, in terms of the inflation transmission chain, we will see inflation exceeding 3% in the future. This year and next, energy prices will indirectly affect food, goods, and services prices." Investors and economists generally expect the ECB to raise interest rates by at least another 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 2.5%, and anticipate inflation to remain above the 2% target level for some time. Even if shipping returns to normal, it will take months for oil supplies to return to normal, and high energy costs are likely to increasingly be passed on to consumer prices. Lane stated that oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly from their current level of $80 to $81 per barrel.
June 16 - Kpler analysts stated that tanker activity is likely to see an initial surge following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 118 fully loaded vessels previously stranded in the strait are expected to depart first, driving a significant but brief spike in transit volume in the initial 10 to 15 days. The main uncertainty lies in how quickly new vessels will re-enter the area. Analysts Matt Wright and Panagiotis Krontiras stated that in the most optimistic scenario, if security concerns are completely eliminated, traffic could rebound rapidly, even briefly exceeding pre-war levels, although this outcome is considered unlikely. In the baseline scenario, the recovery will be more gradual, with transit volume increasing from approximately 15 vessels per day initially to 40 by the end of the month, of which tankers will account for about 60%.
SpaceX (SPCX.O) shares rose 15%, surpassing Microsoft (MSFT.O) to become the worlds fourth-largest company by market capitalization.
According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents, Shenzhen Kubo Energy Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
According to Semafor: Netflix (NFLX.O) lost out to Fox in its attempt to acquire Roku.