be prepared! The cold winter may come, and oil prices may stand above 100 US dollars for a short time

Earlier this week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to maintain the current policy of increasing production by 400,000 barrels per day each month, and oil prices soared to their highest levels in many years. Bank analysts predict that oil prices may rise before the end of this year, which is also expected. Now some people expect oil prices to climb further to $100. The good news is that even if this happens, it won't last long.

Goldman Sachs recently updated its oil price forecast for the last quarter, saying that it currently expects Brent crude oil to reach $90 per barrel before the end of December. Prior to this, the bank said that if the winter is colder, oil demand may jump by 900,000 barrels per day.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Analyst team said at the end of September that although we are bullish on oil prices for a long time, the current global supply and demand deficit is larger than we originally thought. Under the impact of the Delta new crown virus variant, the recovery of global crude oil demand is faster than consensus expectations, but The global crude oil supply still falls short of consensus expectations.

The Bank of America said that if this winter is colder than previous years, the forecast of oil prices soaring to US$100 per barrel will be realized earlier, after the bank expected oil prices to rise to US$100 per barrel in mid-2022. If this winter is colder, global oil demand may surge by 1 to 2 million barrels per day. In this case, the oil market deficit this winter is likely to exceed 2 million barrels per day.

The Bank of America said in the report that downside risks to oil prices include a new wave of pandemics, panic caused by QE cuts, and the resumption of Iranian crude oil exports. Nevertheless, the winter climate is rapidly becoming the most important driver of energy market prices.

However, JTD Energy Services chief strategist John Driscoll (John Driscoll) said that even if the Brent crude oil price reaches 100 US dollars per barrel, it is unlikely to remain at this level for a long time. Many factors are needed for the benchmark oil price to reach this price level.

Driscoll said, I think this is a low probability situation. In other words, if everything goes wrong, if we encounter Arctic weather, if our delivery capabilities and supply chain fail, this is a possible situation, but I think this situation is unlikely to continue.

It all depends on the weather. All forecasters mention that the cold winter is a key factor affecting all energy prices, and it seems that everyone is looking forward to it.

Driscoll pointed out that you can see a record-breaking low temperature-this is a scene, I really did not hear anyone talking about the prospect of a mild and depressing winter, considering all the uncertainties of weather and climate change Sex, we may experience a crazy journey here.

However, for a long period of time, it is impossible to predict the weather accurately. In fact, as well-known foreign media reported earlier this month, there are huge differences in current weather forecasts by meteorologists.

Of course, the rational approach is to prepare for the worst possible situation, which is a very cold winter. In fact, this is exactly what Europe and trying to do, which has also become an important reason for the soaring oil prices. However, at least to a certain extent, this surge is the result of speculation rather than fundamental factors. After Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he would provide more natural gas to Europe, the price of natural gas dropped by more than $50 after hitting a record high. This is a good indication of the problem.

GMT+8 10:08, US crude oil is now quoted at 78.89 US dollars per barrel.