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May 6, US President Trump said Moscow and Kiev want to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is more inclined to peace after the recent drop in oil prices. "Now that the price of oil has dropped, I think we are in a good position for reconciliation. Russia wants to reconcile and Ukraine wants to reconcile," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. "We have come a long way and something may happen, hopefully it will. As you know, President Putin just announced a three-day ceasefire, which doesnt sound like much, but it means a lot if you know where we are coming from. This is a war that should never have happened."On May 6, UBS published a report stating that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388.HK)s first-quarter revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, and pointed out that the second quarter will face a more challenging base. Last years second-quarter revenue and net profit increased by 8% and 9% year-on-year. The bank said that the average daily trading volume may increase by HK$119 billion and drive revenue and net profit to increase by 4% to 5% and 7% respectively in 2026 due to the possible delisting of Chinese concept stocks and listing in Hong Kong. However, investor feedback shows that the increase in average daily trading volume may be small, about HK$10 billion to HK$15 billion, and the increase in revenue and net profit is only 3% to 5%. In addition, due to weak market conditions and a small number of eligible companies, the valuation discount brought about by market value migration may be greater. In the short term, due to the lack of market liquidity, the transaction speed may also be low. UBS said that taking into account the market activities since the second quarter, it has raised its forecast for this years average daily turnover from HK$159 billion to HK$170 billion, lowered its operating expenses for the period by 1% each, and raised its earnings per share forecast for the period by 6%, 4% and 4% to HK$10.8, HK$9.7 and HK$9.9 respectively, and raised its target price for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from HK$320 to HK$344, with a neutral rating.According to KCNA: A Belarusian delegation will visit North Korea this week.On May 6, Goldman Sachs published a research report stating that COSCO Shipping Ports (01199.HK)s first-quarter net profit increased by 33% year-on-year and fell by 4% quarter-on-quarter, which was better than expected, mainly driven by the groups overseas performance. The bank raised the groups European port throughput forecast and raised its net profit forecast for 2025 to 27 by 1 to 2%. After adjusting the market value of listed assets, the target price was lowered from HK$5.4 to HK$5.3, and the buy rating was continued.May 6, MFS Investment Management chief economist and portfolio manager Weissman said in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may point out at this weeks meeting that the U.S. Treasury market is functioning normally after a brief turmoil. Powell may also point out that liquidity tools are available if market conditions permit. In addition, as bank reserve balances continue to decline, some may advocate a complete end to quantitative tightening. But Weissman said that given that the Fed has just slowed the pace of quantitative easing, Powell is unlikely to feel the need to take more action in this area in the near future.

What is a bull trap and how does it work?

Cyril Sarratt

Dec 02, 2021 16:55

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A bull trap is a reversal from an upward rally. Learn more about bull traps consisting of how to identify them and how to escape them, with examples, in this short article.

What is a bull trap?

A bull trap is a reversal versus a bullish trend that forces long traders to desert their positions in the face of increasing losses. It is called a trap since it typically catches traders off-guard, and comes on the back of a strong market rally that looked most likely to continue.

 

Bull traps are characterised by a trader or investor purchasing a property as it breaks through a traditionally high level of resistance. Many breakouts above resistance are followed by increasingly greater highs, however a bull trap is characterised by a bearish turnaround not long after the breakout.

How to determine a bull trap

It's tough to recognize a bull trap since normally after a breakout, an asset would be most likely to increase in cost, not reverse. However, what you can do is carry out technical analysis and fundamental analysis on the property you wish to trade.

 

Search for whether the possession is presently overbought, which might show a bearish turnaround from the prevailing bullish pattern. You might likewise wait prior to opening long position following a breakout, to see if the bullish pattern continues.

 

A popular technical indication to identify overbought assets is the relative strength index (RSI). 

Bull trap example 

In the below example, we've taken a look at the FTSE 100's cost motions. As you can see, it was moving in a fairly steady upward trend, with two peaks before realising a breakout above the historic high for this time duration.

 

Typically, we might expect this breakout to lead to a series of higher highs as the level of resistance has been breached. In this particular example, the breakout was actually a bear trap If a trader had actually opened a long position soon after the breakout, they would've rapidly found themselves faced by a bearish turnaround versus the prevailing pattern.

How to get away a bull trap

The best method to escape a bull trap is set a stop-loss on your position as you open it. This will assist you to prevent heavy losses if you're caught out by a bull trap.

 

There are a couple of sort of stop-losses to pick from, consisting of standard, tracking or ensured. When trying to prevent a bull trap, a routing stop would probably help you the most, due to the fact that it will trail behind the existing market value by a set amount of points, and it will immediately close your position if the market worth falls by that set quantity.

 

This will help you to secure as much revenue as possible, while likewise cutting losses early on into a bull trap.

How to trade a bull trap

You can trade a bull trap by opening a short position when you recognize that a bear trap is in effect. You can go short with monetary derivatives like spread bets and CFDs. These allow you to take a position on a possession without having to straight own it, making them well-suited to shorting.

Bull trap trading summarized

  • A bull trap is a reversal from an upward trend shortly after an asset breaks through a historical level of resistance

  • Usually, a breakout above resistance might indicate that the dominating trend will continue however this isn't the case in a bull trap

  • Traders might take a breakout above resistance as a signal to go long and purchase the underlying market

  • If this is the case, bear traps could lead to a trader losing cash as the cost falls after opening a long position

  • Stop-losses-- especially routing stops-- can help you to prevent bear traps and their unfavorable results on earnings in your trading