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The UKs BRC shop price index rose 1% year-on-year in October, compared with 1.40% in the previous month.Market news: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will meet with Samsung and Hyundai executives on October 30.1. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.71%, the S&P 500 up 1.23%, and the Nasdaq up 1.86%. Nvidia rose nearly 3%, and Apple rose over 2%, leading the Dow. The Wind S7 Index rose 2.4%, with Tesla up over 4%, Google up over 3%, and Qualcomm up over 11%, reaching a new high since July 2024. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Daquan New Energy up over 14% and Xpeng Motors up over 6%. The temporary easing of international trade tensions boosted market confidence. This week, investors focused on the earnings reports of several tech giants and the Federal Reserves interest rate meeting. 2. All three major European stock indices closed slightly higher, with Germanys DAX up 0.28%, Frances CAC 40 up 0.16%, and the UKs FTSE 100 up 0.09%. The basic consensus reached in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations boosted market risk appetite. 3. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 0.64 basis points to 3.482%, the 3-year Treasury yield down 1.40 basis points to 3.480%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 1.92 basis points to 3.595%, the 10-year Treasury yield down 3.46 basis points to 3.976%, and the 30-year Treasury yield down 5.02 basis points to 4.549%. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut, coupled with a lack of economic data due to the government shutdown, have intensified safe-haven demand. 4. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 3.40% to $3,997.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 3.61% to $46.83 per ounce. Expectations of a Fed rate cut have intensified, but easing international political tensions have reduced safe-haven demand. The increasing U.S. government debt burden provides long-term support for gold. 5. The main contract of U.S. oil closed up 0.08% at $61.55 per barrel; the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.25% to $65.04 per barrel.On October 28th, Pony.ai announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it plans to issue 41,955,700 shares (subject to the exercise of the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Over-allotment Option) for its Hong Kong listing. Unless otherwise announced, the offer price will not exceed HK$180 per share. Trading of the shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to begin on November 6th (the same date as competitor WeRide).According to Japans Asahi Shimbun: Japan and South Korea are coordinating arrangements to hold the first summit meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on October 30 during the APEC summit in South Korea.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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