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July 14th - With the summer vacation approaching, cross-border travel in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is booming, and passenger traffic at the Gongbei Port, which is connected to Macao by land, continues to increase. Since July, the Gongbei Port has seen an average of over 310,000 inbound and outbound passengers per day. According to Gongbei Customs, in the first half of this year, the total number of inbound and outbound passengers at the Gongbei Port exceeded 64 million, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year, with a peak daily passenger flow of 460,000.Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.35%, German DAX futures fell 0.35%, and UK FTSE futures fell 0.28%.1. Sudden Geopolitical Military Conflict: Serious clashes erupted in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. According to CCTV and other media reports, two UAE oil tankers were attacked by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern channel of the strait (resulting in one death and eight injuries); the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the attack and destruction of two foreign oil tankers that ignored warnings. Simultaneously, the US Central Command announced it would reinstate the blockade of maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 15th. 2. Macroeconomic Policy and Concerns about Soaring Transportation Costs: Trump stated he would impose a 20% protection fee on all goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, estimated this could increase the cost of transporting oil through the strait by another $16 per barrel (to $26), potentially increasing the overall cost of a large oil tanker by over $30 million. 3. Weakening Spot Prices: The spot market is entering a downward trend, shifting from a period of high demand to a lower price. The latest SCFIS European line is 3656.38 points, slightly lower than expected. According to Haitong Futures statistics, the market average for Late July is approximately $5130 USD for a container load (TCL). It is expected that the OA and PA alliances still have room to follow Maersks $4800 USD adjustment for 30-week TCL openings, and the average could potentially fall below $5000 USD. 4. Haitong Futures view: The EC main contract is currently betting on the actual downward slope after freight rates peak. The previously anticipated low capacity in the 31-week period might have altered the current linear extrapolation of the downward freight rate path, but the current adjustment after the empty schedule has smoothed the decline. The 08 contract valuation has already largely priced in the subsequent decline; observe whether there is a possibility of a gradual decline. There is a lack of significant marginal improvement drivers in the short term. 5. Guangfa Futures view: Geopolitical disturbances have resurfaced, and short-term downward momentum is nearing exhaustion. For longer-term contracts, the expectation of the resumption of Red Sea shipping, coupled with the uncertainty of the US-Iran conflict, results in greater volatility, but there is currently no clear trend. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market information from Haitong Futures, Guotou Futures, etc., and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.)BP: Expects natural gas and low-carbon energy production to be 750,000 to 770,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter of 2026.BP: Expects oil and gas production and operations to be between 1.42 million and 1.45 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter of 2026.

What Is the Federal Reserve and Why Is It Important?

Eden

Oct 25, 2021 14:07

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What is the Federal Reserve?


The Federal Reserve (also called The Fed) is the central Bank of the United States. Founded by Congress in 1913, it uses several different levers to promote a healthy and stable national economy.


Technically, the Federal Reserve is a "system" comprised of three features:


1. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors provides general guidance to the Federal Reserve System and oversees the 12 Federal Reserve Banks.


2. 12 Federal Reserve Banks, each responsible for overseeing a specific geographical region within the United States.


3. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which oversees the nation's open market operations and makes important decisions about interest rates and money supply.


Members of the Federal Reserve Board are appointed by the president, confirmed by the Senate, and held accountable by Congress. The current Chairman of the Board is Jerome Powell, who was sworn into office in February 2018. His most recent predecessor was Janet Yellen.


Though Fed members are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, the Fed is considered an independent government agency. Though it has to achieve the nation's official monetary policy, the specific actions it takes to reach these goals do not need to be approved by either the president or Congress.


What does the Federal Reserve do?


1. Setting monetary policy


The Fed promotes a healthy U.S. economy through its monetary policy. The FOMC holds eight meetings per year to review economic trends and vote on new monetary policy measures.


Officially, there are two monetary policy goals that the Fed is striving to achieve:


High employment


Low inflation


The primary way the Fed achieves these monetary policy goals is by setting a federal funds target rate. To fight inflation, the Fed can aim to raise the federal funds' target rate. Alternatively, to fight off a recession, the Fed can aim to lower it.


Maximum employment doesn't necessarily mean that everyone is working. Economists have a "natural rate" of unemployment that is ultimately the goal. If the unemployment rate is pushed too low -- below 5% or so -- inflation rises because more money is in the economy, which goes against the long-term Fed goal of stable prices.


A hawk in Fed is someone who advocates keeping inflation low as the top priority in monetary policy. In contrast, a dove is someone who emphasizes other issues, especially low unemployment, over low inflation.


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Photo: Invespodia


Fed Tasks: Monetary Policy


Monetary policy refers to the Fed's actions to influence financial conditions to achieve its goals.


The Fed's primary control is in the raising and lowering of short-term interest rates. In doing this, the Fed can indirectly influence demand, which then affects the economy. 


The Fed watches economic indicators closely to determine in which direction the economy is going. By forecasting increases in inflation or slow-downs in the economy, the Fed knows whether to increase or decrease the money supply.


Fed Tasks: Financial Institution Regulator


As a regulator for financial institutions, the Fed establishes the rules of conduct that these institutions must follow. The regional Reserve Banks then carry out the supervision and enforcement of these regulations. These regional banks monitor the activities of banks within their regions and ensure that they are operating appropriately.


Fed Tasks: A Bank's Bank


Just as banks serve their customers, the Fed acts as a bank for banks. The Fed keeps the pipeline of transactions flowing. It processes and clears one-third of all the checks processed in the country -- that's about 20 billion checks per year. The regional Reserve Banks provide these services to the banks within their regions. The transactions are done on a fee basis, which is part of how the Federal Reserve supports itself. Banks are not required to use the Reserve Banks; they can choose to use a private competitor. This helps to ensure that the processing fees being charged are kept under control.


Fed Tasks: The Government's Bank


The Fed maintains the checking account of the U.S. Treasury. As the largest bank customer in the country, the U.S. government does quite a bit of business and performs a lot of financial transactions, all of which are handled by the Fed. These transactions amount to trillions of dollars and include all of the tax deposits and withdrawals for U.S. citizens. It also includes securities such as savings bonds, Treasury bills, notes, and bonds that are bought by and for the U.S. government.


Why is the Federal Reserve so important?


The press scrutinizes the Federal Reserve for clues on how the economy performs and what the FOMC and Board of Governors plan to do about it. The Fed directly affects your stock and bond mutual funds and your loan rates. By having such an influence on the economy, the Fed also indirectly affects your home's value and even your chances of being laid off or rehired.


How Interest Rates Affect Spending


With every loan, there is some probability that the borrower will not repay the money. To compensate lenders for that risk, there must be a reward: interest. Interest is the amount of money that lenders earn when they make a loan that the borrower repays, and the interest rate is the percentage of the loan amount that the lender charges to lend money.


The existence of interest allows borrowers to spend money immediately instead of waiting to save the money to make a purchase. The lower the interest rate, the more willing people are to borrow money to make big purchases, such as houses or cars. When consumers pay less in interest, this gives them more money to spend, creating a ripple effect of increased spending throughout the economy. Businesses and farmers also benefit from lower interest rates, as it encourages them to make large equipment purchases due to the low cost of borrowing. This creates a situation where output and productivity increase.


Conversely, higher interest rates mean that consumers don't have as much disposable income and must cut back on spending. When higher interest rates are coupled with increased lending standards, banks make fewer loans. This affects not only consumers but also businesses and farmers, who cut back on spending for new equipment, thus slowing productivity or reducing the number of employees. The tighter lending standards also mean that consumers will cut back on spending, and this will affect many businesses' bottom lines.


Changes in interest rates can have both positive and negative effects on the markets. When the Fed changes the rate at which banks borrow money, this has a ripple effect across the entire economy. 


Rising or falling interest rates also affect consumer and business psychology. When interest rates are rising, both businesses and consumers will cut back on spending. This will cause earnings to fall and stock prices to drop. On the other hand, when interest rates have fallen significantly, consumers and businesses will increase spending, causing stock prices to rise.


Interest rates also affect bond prices. There is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates, meaning that as interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and as interest rates fall, bond prices rise. The longer the maturity of the bond, the more it will fluctuate in relation to interest rates.