Wharton Professor of Business School said: US stocks are at risk in the fourth quarter, bullish on gold!

U.S. stocks may not have a good time in the fourth quarter of this year. Last Friday, Wharton Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel, who is known for his active market forecasts, issued a warning about the market’s ability to respond to inflation. He believes that inflation will be a bigger problem than the Fed believes. Rising prices have brought serious risks. The Fed will face pressure to accelerate the reduction of bond purchases, and he believes that the market is not ready.



His cautious attitude is markedly different from his optimistic attitude in early January. In the "Trading Nation" program on January 4, he correctly predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would reach 35,000 points in 2021, a 14% increase from the first opening this year. On August 16, the index reached a record high of 35631.19 points. Last Friday, the index closed at 34326.46 points.

He now believes that the biggest threat to Wall Street is that Fed Chairman Powell withdrew from loose monetary policy earlier than expected due to a sharp rise in inflation.

He pointed out: "We all know that many volatility in the stock market is related to the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve. If the rate of cut is faster, it also means that interest rates will be raised faster. Both of these things are not good for the stock market. "

Siegel is particularly worried about the impact this will have on growth stocks, especially technology stocks. He believes that Nasdaq (Nasdaq), which is dominated by technology stocks, is currently only 5% away from its historical high, and may fall sharply, and the market will tilt towards value stocks.

He believes that this background bodes well for companies that have benefited from interest rate hikes, have pricing power, and pay dividends. In the context of inflation, underperforming utilities and consumer goods companies that are known for their dividends may see strong increases.

In addition, Siegel is also bullish on gold. He believes that as a hedge against inflation, gold has become relatively cheap, and pointed out that the popularity of Bitcoin is one reason.

Siegel said: "The market turned to Bitcoin, and I think they ignored gold. I remember that during the inflation of the 1970s, everyone switched to buying gold. Now in our digital world, investors are turning to Bitcoin. , And I think they ignored gold."

Siegel was not frightened by the rise in real estate prices. He said: "I don't think this is a bubble. Investors have already foreseen inflation to a certain extent... I think that mortgage interest rates will have to rise sharply to really hit the real estate market. Therefore, I think real estate is still A good asset worth having."



S&P 500 index daily chart