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Warm Weather And Ample Supply Keep European Gas Prices Low

Charlie Brooks

Oct 25, 2022 14:18

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Due to forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather for the majority of the continent over the next week, European natural gas contracts fell further in early trading on Monday.


At 04:45 ET (08:45 GMT), the benchmark for northwest Europe, front-month Dutch TTF futures, were down more than 10% to 101.39 euros per megawatt-hour after starting at a four-month low of 100 EUR/MWh.


Meteorological forecasts indicate that continental Europe will enjoy temperatures 4 to 8 degrees Celsius above average this week, indicating decreased demand and permitting importers to continue injecting excess gas into storage.


A mild start to the winter heating season and strong purchases of liquefied natural gas on spot markets have allowed Europe to fill its storage facilities ahead of schedule, relieving the pressure generated by Russia's effective supply stop.


As of Sunday, EU storage facilities were filled to a level of 93,4 percent, with the continent's two major markets, Germany and Italy, displaying even greater levels.


As a result of the paucity of available storage, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen cautioned on Twitter that a "short-term price fall" was possible.


Nevertheless, longer-term contracts indicate that the markets believe the current downturn to be temporary. The TTF price for the first quarter of the next year remains at 144.64 EUR/MWh, while the annual price for 2023 is 142.43 EUR/MWh. This reflects the risk that, if the situation in Ukraine continues, Europe will be without Russian gas for a full year in 2023, forcing it to make greater and more frequent spot market imports.


In addition, Alexander Stahel of the Swiss consultancy firm Burggraben noted, "LNG cargo owners are aware that winter is approaching." As a result, he noted, they are keeping LNG ships offshore, as opposed to routing them to other markets, as they wait for milder weather to improve demand and free up storage capacity. According to Stahel, this is substantially limiting the global market.

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