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On May 5th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time, highlighting its determination to curb stubborn high inflation and solidifying its position as the "lone wolf" among major central banks globally. The RBA voted 8-1 to raise the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, completely reversing the monetary easing cycle of last year. In a statement, the bank said that after three rate hikes, monetary policy is well-prepared to respond to changing circumstances, and the committee is focused on achieving its mandate of price stability and full employment, and will take all necessary actions to achieve this goal. Currently, most economists expect the RBA to remain on hold for an extended period, but a minority believe there will be at least one more rate hike, a view shared by the money market. With three consecutive rate hikes, the RBA committee is also signaling that it prioritizes its 2% to 3% inflation target over all other considerations. This aggressive stance puts further pressure on the Australian government. With one week to go before the annual budget is released, it is expected to address war-related energy price increases and provide temporary cost-of-living relief for households.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated that the committee will focus on data and evolving outlook and risk assessments to guide its decision-making.Reserve Bank of Australia: Higher fuel prices are exacerbating inflation, and there are signs that this could have a broader secondary impact on the prices of goods and services.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated that the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in fuel and related commodity prices, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.Reserve Bank of Australia: There are early signs that many businesses facing cost pressures are beginning to seek to raise prices for their goods and services.

WTI falls below $80 as attention goes to US Inflation for additional advice

Alina Haynes

Feb 13, 2023 14:27

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During the Asian session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have felt selling pressure while seeking to surpass the crucial $80.00 resistance level. Tuesday's announcement of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has caused investors to divert their attention away from the price of oil.

 

The oil price increased on Friday as Russia announced a reduction in oil production in retaliation for price limitations imposed by G7 nations to prevent Russia from supporting its war necessities against Ukraine. Alexander Novak, Russia's energy minister, indicated that the country would reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 5% of its output in March.

 

The United States Treasury Department has reiterated that it intends to limit the Kremlin's revenues per barrel in order to stifle Moscow's support for the war in Ukraine, while ensuring that Russian oil shipments reach necessary markets.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the verge of extending its three-day high above 103.35 during the Asian session due to predictions that the US inflation data would show an unexpected increase in light of the tight labor market. The consensus, however, favors a reduction in annual headline inflation to 5.8% from the previous report of 6.5%, and in core inflation to 5.4% from 5.85.

 

Aside from that, the expression of deflation in China's CPI report published last week indicates that the method of economic recovery in the world's second-largest economy following the removal of price controls is somewhat slow. It will take adequate time for the economy to return to its pre-pandemic growth rate. This might dampen hopes for a rapid revival in oil demand.